CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ensembles are very close to OP...almost exactly the same. Looks right over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay, your point being ....? Where's the convective feedback in this run? I'm not saying it isn't there, I'm asking as people are throwing the term around. by definition where is it/when does it start/what panels...where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This might be true in that there could be a lull in qpf just off the Delmarva, but the NAM may have done that because of some convective feedback. It has nothing off the Delmarva during tomorrow aftn..like a 150 miles gap. I'm not sure about that. i'm wondering if the issue (escaping precip) will even matter much in the end. given the amount of forcing and where it's tracking, even if the NAM is on target with ripping the precip shield in two, the UL energy alone should be enough to spread a good shield of precipitation up into a good chunk of SNE i think. to me, this is where i think the euro has won the game. maybe the mesos will be right with the initial blow up of precip, but in the end, the vortmax track is going the way the euro said it would about 5 days ago. maybe some of the "juice" is lessened and can't get quite as far NW as some of the more amped EC runs showed, but that's a very strong piece of energy with nicely collocated mid-level centers in a pretty good spot for SNE. people should probably keep expectations in check but a good plowable event seems likely, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i'm wondering if the issue (escaping precip) will even matter much in the end. given the amount of forcing and where it's tracking, even if the NAM is on target with ripping the precip shield in two, the UL energy alone should be enough to spread a good shield of precipitation up into a good chunk of SNE i think. to me, this is where i think the euro has won the game. maybe the mesos will be right with the initial blow up of precip, but in the end, the vortmax track is going the way the euro said it would about 5 days ago. maybe some of the "juice" is lessened and can't get quite as far NW as some of the more amped EC runs showed, but that's a very strong piece of energy with nicely collocated mid-level centers in a pretty good spot for SNE. people should probably keep expectations in check but a good plowable event seems likely, imo. nice post. you thinking mostly S of the pike event at this time or more like S of route 2. regarding heaviest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sorry for the personal question but I'm driving from Newton back to Greenfield down RT 2 between 5 - 7pm tomorrow do I need to be worried about heavier precip by then?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 what is everyone thinking for accumulations for southern New hampshire at the moment? I am hoping the 18z gfs and 00z runs come further north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i'm wondering if the issue (escaping precip) will even matter much in the end. given the amount of forcing and where it's tracking, even if the NAM is on target with ripping the precip shield in two, the UL energy alone should be enough to spread a good shield of precipitation up into a good chunk of SNE i think. to me, this is where i think the euro has won the game. maybe the mesos will be right with the initial blow up of precip, but in the end, the vortmax track is going the way the euro said it would about 5 days ago. maybe some of the "juice" is lessened and can't get quite as far NW as some of the more amped EC runs showed, but that's a very strong piece of energy with nicely collocated mid-level centers in a pretty good spot for SNE. people should probably keep expectations in check but a good plowable event seems likely, imo. It only matters for those that thought this was another HECS/blizzard ala the 0z. It's a nice snowstorm. I suppose it matters more for those on the fringes NW and SE but for different reasons. And I'd agree all the split does/did was take away the mega totals. The NAM for 2 runs now has signaled a very good hit coming in from the SW regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Winter Storm Watches flying for coastal Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ensembles are very close to OP...almost exactly the same. QPF even looks juicier up my way than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't know if this got posted, HPC updated the QPF. Looks like it's changed some from the last go round' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 QPF even looks juicier up my way than the op. It's amazing how the Euro and it's ens. haven't budged for days and we've seen every other model play catchup..Some still not there. Some all the way there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't know if this got posted, HPC updated the QPF. Looks like it's changed some from the last go round' Yeah that def. gets the .25-.50 well into the NW corner of Ma. Good news there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 QPF even looks juicier up my way than the op. Yeah it has a pretty good look to it. It has the ULL going just S of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah it has a pretty good look to it. It has the ULL going just S of LI. Just like Jan 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FOUS looks way better than 12Z. I expect NAM to double again 0Z. DCA FWIW has just under an inch all snow per this run of the NAM. I hope they get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah that def. gets the .25-.50 well into the NW corner of Ma. Good news there. Indeed.... Maybe .75 by tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just like Jan 12th It needs to be just a shade north and capture the sfc low for 6h to think about Jan 12 totals...otherwise it will be an 8 hour snow bomb with pretty heavy amounts but probably not many over 12-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Why do we keep perseverating over qpf details, nudges NW etc... on these NAM runs?? The key is not that the NAM trended NW, but rather that it continues to have that 2-piece sheared structure with a lead wave farther east that messes up the nicely wrapped consolidated low shown on the EURO... the 2 lobes of energy that Messenger has highlighted again and again. Unless the NAM changes in that fundamental way, these changes are not a big deal and eastern SNE is still in a 6-12" zone, less north and west. Compared to the 0Z EURO monster last night, BFD. I'm looking for a fundamental change at 0Z towards the EURO, not these messy shuffles NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 what will be the start time for this from sw to ne ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Interesting. Just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Bad news : Doubt I'll reach warning criteria at school Good news : Leaving at 10am Thursday to go to Boston I will at least get to see the epicness of the added snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Winter Storm Watches flying for coastal Maine. Nice. I suspect we'll see it expanded overnight to include the interior sections of the coastal counties with WWA to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Why do we keep perseverating over qpf details, nudges NW etc... on these NAM runs?? The key is not that the NAM trended NW, but rather that it continues to have that 2-piece sheared structure with a lead wave farther east that messes up the nicely wrapped consolidated low shown on the EURO... the 2 lobes of energy that Messenger has highlighted again and again. Unless the NAM changes in that fundamental way, these changes are not a big deal and eastern SNE is still in a 6-12" zone, less north and west. Compared to the 0Z EURO monster last night, BFD. I'm looking for a fundamental change at 0Z towards the EURO, not these messy shuffles NW. The track of the ULL is very important and is what should be watched. It trended NW with that ULL track. Two piece precip shield or not, someone is going to get smoked if you get a potent ULL tucking just under LI....its not ideal yet, but it got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i'm wondering if the issue (escaping precip) will even matter much in the end. given the amount of forcing and where it's tracking, even if the NAM is on target with ripping the precip shield in two, the UL energy alone should be enough to spread a good shield of precipitation up into a good chunk of SNE i think. to me, this is where i think the euro has won the game. maybe the mesos will be right with the initial blow up of precip, but in the end, the vortmax track is going the way the euro said it would about 5 days ago. maybe some of the "juice" is lessened and can't get quite as far NW as some of the more amped EC runs showed, but that's a very strong piece of energy with nicely collocated mid-level centers in a pretty good spot for SNE. people should probably keep expectations in check but a good plowable event seems likely, imo. Yeah one could picture the snow shield sort of blossoming or expanding ne as the forcing from the ULL takes over, and the LLJ increases. I was mentioning earlier how the mid level tracks argue for an expanding qpf shield later tomorrow...and perhaps one big arc of qpf if the euro is right. The gap in the precip is interesting because the strongest LLJ is with the WCB offshore, and the more dynamically forced qopf assoc with the ULL over the MA. The winds in the lower 6000ft or so are light just off the Delmarva and lack of a LLJ creates somewhat of a void in QPF. This may be due to the NAM placing the low closer to the convection and now we are left with a void of qpf east of the Delmarva. Eventually, the low divorces the qof and moves to a position closer to the NC coast where the better upper level forcing is. At this point we begin to see the 850 low develop and thus better inflow and expanding snow shield. With that mid level track, I think there will be some great banding. Strong cooling aloft with the approach of the ULL and a sense of a 700 pivot over the region. I think some are worried about the gap, but it fills in extremely quick on the NAM, and like you said...doesn't really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Why do we keep perseverating over qpf details, nudges NW etc... on these NAM runs?? The key is not that the NAM trended NW, but rather that it continues to have that 2-piece sheared structure with a lead wave farther east that messes up the nicely wrapped consolidated low shown on the EURO... the 2 lobes of energy that Messenger has highlighted again and again. Unless the NAM changes in that fundamental way, these changes are not a big deal and eastern SNE is still in a 6-12" zone, less north and west. Compared to the 0Z EURO monster last night, BFD. I'm looking for a fundamental change at 0Z towards the EURO, not these messy shuffles NW. This run of the NAM and the 12z is pretty meaningless all things considered. If the 0z suite of meso's continues to show an eastward appendage maybe there's something to look at, but either way BFD. The big thing is, look at the HPC graphic. If you lived on the NY/MA/VT border the change today IS a BFD..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 A lot of convection going on down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's amazing how the Euro and it's ens. haven't budged for days and we've seen every other model play catchup..Some still not there. Some all the way there I don't know why we don't throw all of the other models completely out and just use the Euro. oh, and I helped Jeremy Lamb find a classroom building yesterday and talked with him for a few minutes. Said he hates UConn lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Why do we keep perseverating over qpf details, nudges NW etc... on these NAM runs?? The key is not that the NAM trended NW, but rather that it continues to have that 2-piece sheared structure with a lead wave farther east that messes up the nicely wrapped consolidated low shown on the EURO... the 2 lobes of energy that Messenger has highlighted again and again. Unless the NAM changes in that fundamental way, these changes are not a big deal and eastern SNE is still in a 6-12" zone, less north and west. Compared to the 0Z EURO monster last night, BFD. I'm looking for a fundamental change at 0Z towards the EURO, not these messy shuffles NW. take a chill pill dude...it's going to snow. wah...I'm only getting 6-12"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice. I suspect we'll see it expanded overnight to include the interior sections of the coastal counties with WWA to the north. As the way it's been this winter, usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Interesting. Just posted. There are two distinct camps both on these boards, on TV/elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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