weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 H5 does look MUCH better though... anyone having trouble with NCEP lately...not getting images to load, error messages, etc. The 30 HR 500mb map wouldn't load when I made that post but now it loads and it looks pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Bu-Bye.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Slowly but surely it succumbs to the Euro..1st it took off it's shirt..then at 18z it bent over the table..At 00z it 'll drop it's pants KEEP TALKING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Expect 0Z to show similarity with the rest of the guidance. Today's 18Z run is a move in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM is fine just faster. Weathafella, this is what I meant about a two part storm. Bastardi is talking about the same thing. There's a HUGE split in the precip even up here, we wait for the CCB to develop. That's the big difference between these models and the older Euro. Ultimately the idea of having to wait for the CCB I think is the right one as the s/w coming out of the Gulf etc causes a big dry slot/rift as the main precip shield gets east. I'll wait for the 0z but I'm leaning pretty heavily to the idea that the meso/nam idea won't be terrible, there will be a sharp cuttoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Definitely an improvement on the upper low track vs 12z run. QPF went up too but that's not important right now...more important to look at the key features. NAM is still having a horrible convective low go well east initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Slowly but surely it succumbs to the Euro..1st it took off it's shirt..then at 18z it bent over the table..At 00z it 'll drop it's pants if not we followed a storm for 6 days.....for .50 qpf (not awful) but always nicer when they fatten up within 48 hours. looks like the cape is now in the "game" for a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Definitely an improvement on the upper low track vs 12z run. QPF went up too but that's not important right now...more important to look at the key features. NAM is still having a horrible convective low go well east initially. I would imagine, the qpf would be better by a fair margin if it weren't for that low we described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Bu-Bye.. What do you mean bu-buy for. See what the total is for SNE if you can please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Definitely an improvement on the upper low track vs 12z run. QPF went up too but that's not important right now...more important to look at the key features. NAM is still having a horrible convective low go well east initially. Yeah, it's all dicomboobalated. Should be there by tonight, tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 H5 does look MUCH better though... anyone having trouble with NCEP lately...not getting images to load, error messages, etc. The 30 HR 500mb map wouldn't load when I made that post but now it loads and it looks pretty sweet. yeah - some weird errors but it eventually worked. 500, 850, and 700 all close off south of SNE - despite the crazy surface depiction with the convection heavily displaced from the low and the poor orphaned comma head - I'd think that this thing would be a nice hit but who knows, only the GGEM, UK, Euro are all showing a ton of QPF for most of SNE - maybe the NAM is right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 as usual...conflicting opinions on whether this is a good run or not. NW cut off seems to have been nudged a bit farther NW...totals elsewhere look fairly similar to 12z. At hour 30, the low center looks farther W and it looks like it shapes up for a monster hit...but then the surface low rockets E-NE along with the precip. Seems like a slightly faster solution which means no bump up in QPF for most from the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM is fine just faster. Weathafella, this is what I meant about a two part storm. Bastardi is talking about the same thing. There's a HUGE split in the precip even up here, we wait for the CCB to develop. That's the big difference between these models and the older Euro. Ultimately the idea of having to wait for the CCB I think is the right one as the s/w coming out of the Gulf etc causes a big dry slot/rift as the main precip shield gets east. I'll wait for the 0z but I'm leaning pretty heavily to the idea that the meso/nam idea won't be terrible, there will be a sharp cuttoff. This might be true in that there could be a lull in qpf just off the Delmarva, but the NAM may have done that because of some convective feedback. It has nothing off the Delmarva during tomorrow aftn..like a 150 miles gap. I'm not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM is fine just faster. Weathafella, this is what I meant about a two part storm. Bastardi is talking about the same thing. There's a HUGE split in the precip even up here, we wait for the CCB to develop. That's the big difference between these models and the older Euro. Ultimately the idea of having to wait for the CCB I think is the right one as the s/w coming out of the Gulf etc causes a big dry slot/rift as the main precip shield gets east. I'll wait for the 0z but I'm leaning pretty heavily to the idea that the meso/nam idea won't be terrible, there will be a sharp cuttoff. that's what I was thinking as well. any idea for why it seem to speed things up a bit from 12z? how does the speed compare to the EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Definitely an improvement on the upper low track vs 12z run. QPF went up too but that's not important right now...more important to look at the key features. NAM is still having a horrible convective low go well east initially. It's been suffering convective nausea for at least 7 cycles now... The difference here appears to be that the gradient is difused off the EC. If we recall the big guy 10 or whatever days ago it was, that was not the case. The gradient thermal ribbon was right where the low happened to be, and that is why the NAM nailed that. Here, it is constantly foresaking the mechanics of deep layer cyclogenesis in lieu of having the convective signal spread out over a larger storm-leading spatial medium. There probably is greater convective potential with this seaward, but the NAM's initialization schemes are just too much of a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM actually came north quite a bit with the precip for ME and NH, looks like the 12Z GFS now..baby steps with the GFS and NAM for this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 as usual...conflicting opinions on whether this is a good run or not. NW cut off seems to have been nudged a bit farther NW...totals elsewhere look fairly similar to 12z. At hour 30, the low center looks farther W and it looks like it shapes up for a monster hit...but then the surface low rockets E-NE along with the precip. Seems like a slightly faster solution which means no bump up in QPF for most from the 12z. Yeah, And some mind games being played in a place where there is a lot of unrest already.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Definite trend to the NW with the axis of heavier QPF which is good but it still keeps some folks on the line of either getting a solid hit or not much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NW trend continues! Cannot argue with that now.. I fully expect it to continue up until the ever so CNE can get into the fun... Don't mess with seasonal trends.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM actually came north quite a bit with the precip for ME and NH, looks like the 12Z GFS now..baby steps with the GFS and NAM for this.. Its just the other models catching up to the Euro....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What do you mean bu-buy for. See what the total is for SNE if you can please. He's speaking from W. of the Ct River (I think) the qpf cutoff could still be pretty sharp out here. We shall see though. Nothing locked in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not sure if it was posted already but how did the Euro ensembles compare to the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The Euro might in the end be correct with it's track and quantity of precipitation in SNE. We'll all see by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 He's speaking from W. of the Ct River (I think) the qpf cutoff could still be pretty sharp out here. We shall see though. Nothing locked in yet. Yes W. of CR. about .1 QPF for me on the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Its just the other models catching up to the Euro....... Agreed, I feel a little better. I am going to say 6-12 right now based on what I think will happen with the NAM and GFS by tomorrow morning, and what the Euro and GGEM have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This might be true in that there could be a lull in qpf just off the Delmarva, but the NAM may have done that because of some convective feedback. It has nothing off the Delmarva during tomorrow aftn..like a 150 miles gap. I'm not sure about that. I think this is overblown but it made for a good illustration of an earlier point that got muddied. There will be some type of "break" off NJ I'm pretty sure. that's what I was thinking as well. any idea for why it seem to speed things up a bit from 12z? how does the speed compare to the EC? I don't really take this run seriously....I won't until tonight. Between the missing obs and some of the other weirdness I'd assume get a fresh start tonight. I wouldn't be surprised to see the other models pull the same gap though. It's a legitimate feature that it's keying on, it may be overdoing it as Tip says, but it's not pure convective feedback that's spun out of the blue at least not per the NOAA writeups I've read. It's been suffering convective nausea for at least 7 cycles now... The difference here appears to be that the gradient is difused off the EC. If we recall the big guy 10 or whatever days ago it was, that was not the case. The gradient thermal ribbon was right where the low happened to be, and that is why the NAM nailed that. Here, it is constantly foresaking the mechanics of deep layer cyclogenesis in lieu of having the convective signal spread out over a larger storm-leading spatial medium. There probably is greater convective potential with this seaward, but the NAM's initialization schemes are just too much of a good thing. But what if it's not to the extreme that the NAM is showing but still a feature out over the water associated with an impulse at 5h that takes a lot of moisture with it. It's not like we haven't seen it before with southern systems. -- The NCEP writeup on convective feedback: "When specific thresholds in the mass fields are met, convective scheme is triggered and then dumps a large amount of QPF over a grid point - releasing so much latent heat over the grid point that the model is forced to adjust the mass fields by producing a local vertical motion max in the mid troposphere (~ 500mb), a corresponding upper level jet max over the vertical motion max - an intense and small scale vort max in the mid levels (MCV). The model scales up the mesoscale circulation at mid levels and holds onto it as a real feature for as long as 3 days. The model can produce precipitation in association with the feature as it tracks along in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not sure if it was posted already but how did the Euro ensembles compare to the op? Ensembles are very close to OP...almost exactly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I guess what I'm asking for, in one of the moments Ray talked about last night...is where specifically is the convective feedback on this run of the NAM by definition? Where's the spin-up that occurs from no pre-existing 500mb feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 But what if it's not to the extreme that the NAM is showing but still a feature out over the water associated with an impulse at 5h that takes a lot of moisture with it. It's not like we haven't seen it before with southern systems. -- The NCEP writeup on convective feedback: "When specific thresholds in the mass fields are met, convective scheme is triggered and then dumps a large amount of QPF over a grid point - releasing so much latent heat over the grid point that the model is forced to adjust the mass fields by producing a local vertical motion max in the mid troposphere (~ 500mb), a corresponding upper level jet max over the vertical motion max - an intense and small scale vort max in the mid levels (MCV). The model scales up the mesoscale circulation at mid levels and holds onto it as a real feature for as long as 3 days. The model can produce precipitation in association with the feature as it tracks along in the flow. Okay, your point being ....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes W. of CR. about .1 QPF for me on the NAM... Don't sweat the NAM though I think we do a little better than that or at least your area does. I'm really not sweating anything until 6z tomorrow. With what's already on the ground I'll be happy w/ as little as 4" and that seems to be almost a lock even up here towards the VT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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