Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No mention of amounts in the latest from BOX ...... Interesting It's important to use the "Highlight Changed Discussion" link. The majority of that AFD is from a previous update; only the near term and aviation discussions were updated at 1:58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ec soundings nice and cold. relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 fluff minibomb? More like sleet fest 2011 cancel. Keep the good news rolling. The worrying is funny, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 fluff minibomb? no i don't think so. that post was misleading in that respect. they aren't frigid by any means just not nearly as warm as they have been the last 48 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 EURO qpfs were requested but too much distracting bickering on this thread... Tombo in the Philly thread was nice enough to deliver... QPF estimates from the 12Z EURO: "they are in this ball park bed .8-1 bos 1.1-1.2 orh 1- 1.1 chh 1.2-1.3 tan 1.2-1.3 pym 1.2-1.3 ewb 1.35-1.45" Wow..1-2 feet for a large portion of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ec soundings nice and cold. yea Phil, looking better and better, all of the QPF and a cold environment, nice, think you make Blizz criteria for a while? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaryS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's important to use the "Highlight Changed Discussion" link. The majority of that AFD is from a previous update; only the near term and aviation discussions were updated at 1:58. Got it........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow..1-2 feet for a large portion of SNE anybody seen qpfs for khfd or kbdl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow..1-2 feet for a large portion of SNE im gonna top out at 10-20 inches this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow..1-2 feet for a large portion of SNE 6-12 for CT on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow..1-2 feet for a large portion of SNE Ryan is the new MPM, worry himself into 14 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 anybody seen qpfs for khfd or kbdl? Both are over an inch..Same as ORH or a touch less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm a bit concerned by the northern stream energy trying to kick this east, but the southern stream looks really juiced right now on the water vapor...line convection extending almost to the Bay of Campeche...so we'll see how those two battle it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This feels to me a bit like Jan '96. while you true SNE guys were getting pounded, I was cloudy with heavy heavy virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow..1-2 feet for a large portion of SNE Nooo we're nearly losing it, the NAM may be right, the QPF went down by 0.2, oh no! Etc. The worrying is not healthy. You got your 20+ for someone, good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Barry is sticking to his guns, posted 9 min ago I just bet someone in my office $10 that this forum predicts snow totals better than the WBZ blog people. From midnight’s subzero temperatures to the morning’s 1 up to 3 inches of snow, we watch for bright spots and breaking clouds some places this afternoon as the burst of snow ends over southeastern MA. A nice recovery is underway leading to afternoon highs of the middle 20s well north and west to near or slightly over 30 in Boston to the lower to middle 30s over southeastern MA. With any substantial clearing, it will easily chill off to the teens in many outlying areas tonight with 20-25 closer to Boston. Upon digesting the latest output from the various models, I have elected to hang tough on most of my earlier expectations regarding the upcoming storm threat. There are a few tweaks here and there worth noting. I am revising the projected amounts slightly greater for areas in northwestern Worcester County into interior southern New Hampshire where 1-3 inches are probable with a slight widening of the 3-6″ ribbon north and west of Boston. I think the city will reap closer to 5 to 6″ or so with a slight widening of the swath of more than 6″ just south of the city through Plymouth and Bristol County into Rhode Island. Jackpot areas within that band may gather up to 8 or 9 inches. The lower amounts of 3-6″ near the Cape Cod Canal remain untouched and 3 inches down to 1 from west to east on the Cape still stand as the rain flips over to snow there late tomorrow night. I reiterate that the precise path of the southern stream vortex is paramount in accurately forecasting the snowfall across the region. A more east-northeastward trajectory for this feature is key. This is entirely dissimilar to two weeks ago when massive dynamics were available to crank out a blockbuster. Nevertheless, a period of good lift happens for about a 4-6 hour period yielding moderate to perhaps heavy snow releasing up to 1″ per hour in the Boston area southward. The northeasterly wind will freshen and back to northerly later tomorrow night as speed ramp up to 15-35 mph. It’s a done deal around dawn on Thursday and clearing will follow. The caveat is that minute shifting of the steering currents can produce a much different outcome in places. It still bears watching because in the weather world, it’s never over until it’s over! LOL. Looking ahead, a weak upper level disturbance could release a few spotty flurries on Friday but a stronger upstream short wave will arrive for a spell of light snow or flurries on Saturday then sunshine returns on Sunday with highs this weekend mostly in the lower 30s Saturday to upper 20s on Sunday. Todd Gutner will be examining fresh data later this afternoon and will post his thoughts this evening. Have a good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yea Phil, looking better and better, all of the QPF and a cold environment, nice, think you make Blizz criteria for a while? i don't know about that but i'm content to see a good period of accumulating snow out here. i'm sure there will be some wind though. there's a good chunk of the area that could have some pretty fun times overnight as scooter alluded to earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm a bit concerned by the northern stream energy trying to kick this east, but the southern stream looks really juiced right now on the water vapor...line convection extending almost to the Bay of Campeche...so we'll see how those two battle it out. Will regarding the N. stream energy.....do you think models have a good handle on this yet.....or do you think 0z (12z wed) will shed much more light on details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow..1-2 feet for a large portion of SNE Who you giving 15-20:1 ratios to? (just messing of course) I still think this will end up right over or inside of the BM and the south shunt will not continue in upcoming euro runs. Only time will tell of course. 9-14" first call for boston and surrounding metro down to brockton, up to ray, and out to kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Will regarding the N. stream energy.....do you think models have a good handle on this yet.....or do you think 0z (12z wed) will shed much more light on details. 00z should have a better handle on it as its almost into the US by then. The area just north of the US/Can border has much better data coverage than 100-200 miles N of that....not sure if it will make a huge difference but its somehting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Very much looking forward to the 18z NAM. Though I imagine many would not agree with me, I feel that the magnitude and direction of its adjustments from the 12z run will be a strong bellwether with regard to trends as we close in on a final solution this evening and early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 No mention of amounts in the latest from BOX ...... Interesting We go through this with every storm. They will update around the 4pm time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 arctic hounds gusting to 50, Boys crying for their Mommas, men hiding babies under their jackets as they trudge to save the herd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
42N72W Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's in their WSW discussion - * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. No mention of amounts in the latest from BOX ...... Interesting AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 158 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 .SYNOPSIS... SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGIONTODAY...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF STATESWILL WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THURSDAY. THISCOASTAL STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...HEAVY SNOW AND OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TOTHE REGION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...MAINLYSOUTH AND EAST OF I-95. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH BY 21Z WITH ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. RECEIVED A MESSAGE FROM MASS DEPT OF ENVIRONMENTALPROTECTION FOR AN AIR QUALITY ALERT DAY FOR THE SPRINGFIELD AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE SENT OUT THE STATEMENT WITH THIS INFORMATION. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOWFOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLINGCONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH DEEP SNOWPACK...THUS SIDEDWITH THE COLDER MAV TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. WEDNESDAY... INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SOME TIMINGDIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/ECMWFARE 3-6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. INHERENT DRY AIRMASS MAY CAUSE ADELAY IN ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASSPIKE. HAVE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THEAFTERNOON HOURS BUT THE BULK OF THIS WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTILAFTER DARK. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 25/00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIRTRACKS OF A LOW PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT STILLDIFFER CONSIDERABLY WITH THEIR TIMING. CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN ENOUGHTO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THINKING THE BRUNT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAYNIGHT...BUT WANTED TO PAD THE START AND ENDING TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING DIFFERENCES. THINKING THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONGTHE SOUTH COAST OF MA...ASWELL AS PORTIONS OF RI AND PERHAPS NORTHERN CT AS WELL. HOW LONG THIS LASTS IS STILL IN DOUBT. THATSAID...DO THINK SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY EVENING TOCHANGE ALL MIXED PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO SEE N-NE WINDS INCREASING DURING WEDNESDAYNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ALONG THE E COAST AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. LOW TOMEDIUM PROBABILITY OF WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 arctic hounds gusting to 50, Boys crying for their Mommas, men hiding babies under their jackets as they trudge to save the herd Kind of warm............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 arctic hounds gusting to 50, Boys crying for their Mommas, men hiding babies under their jackets as they trudge to save the herd LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i don't know about that but i'm content to see a good period of accumulating snow out here. i'm sure there will be some wind though. there's a good chunk of the area that could have some pretty fun times overnight as scooter alluded to earlier. Get naked dude let the hair fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 From 1:12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 arctic hounds gusting to 50, Boys crying for their Mommas, men hiding babies under their jackets as they trudge to save the herd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The h5 confluence to the N is scary for this area. We've been burned by it in the recent past. It argues for a sharp QPF gradient at least. On the other hand, seasonal trend is to tick NW in the last 24 hours, which is consistent with underestimating the SE ridge in la nina and we've seen 'western side of the envelope' tracks. Not to mention, there's no monster block in place like last year, and we verified an advisory last night from out nowhere. Looks like a classic setup. I remain pretty confident of warning criteria despite the american models. Agree. We might end up with 3-6" while 20-25 miles south jackpots.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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