weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SW Jerry, No model shows a two part storm...you know what I mean. Instead of the initial pulse getting entrained into the entire system it's ending up a little east. So when the entire thing WRAPS UP LATER (YOUR WORDS), it's not able to produce as much snow as it was earlier as far west. The CCB gets ripping, we get our snow, the kicker comes in and closes the door. I'm done fighting over it, the Euro didn't hold serve, tick west, or anything else but move east, and shift the dynamics ESE in far western areas. It moved towards consensus as everything moved towards it. I think we can agree on the bold. But my view is (excluding NAM) consensus moved more towards it than vice versa. I think Will used 70/30 and that's probably right. Like you say...we have a nice system so no point in beating this horse. Euro 6 days ago had it and progged it while GFS was OTS off of SC. Euro adjusted about 3 days ago and held and made this adjustment towards the consensus today. If the storm were today, Euro basically wins while every other global loses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Its in the NNE thread........ I'm going 5-8 for down here. Second call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So happy the Euro held serve with an ace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 wonder if Beech mountain > measures in feet. 33.8/ 32 on fox run weather bug. 4960' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How does the weekend clipper look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How does the weekend clipper look? Looks nice. Maybe a 3-6 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So happy the Euro held serve with an ace It didn't... it cut back for you and me and we're right on the boundary of getting screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It didn't... it cut back for you and me and we're right on the boundary of getting screwed Not according to Will. Said well over an inch qpf for me. We're fine relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not according to Will. Said well over an inch qpf for me. We're fine relax actually it trended slightly east. there is some concern that meso's are SE. mets are hedging 70/30 in favor of euro..that would imply euro ticks SE one more time.....Nam ticks NW twice. untill they meet in the middle. so you may not wanna be on the border now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 actually it trended slightly east. there is some concern that meso's are SE. mets are hedging 70/30 in favor of euro..that would imply euro ticks SE one more time.....Nam ticks NW twice. untill they meet in the middle. so you may not wanna be on the border now. I don't see anyone implying that. and I'm not on the border of anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think we can agree on the bold. But my view is (excluding NAM) consensus moved more towards it than vice versa. I think Will used 70/30 and that's probably right. Like you say...we have a nice system so no point in beating this horse. Euro 6 days ago had it and progged it while GFS was OTS off of SC. Euro adjusted about 3 days ago and held and made this adjustment towards the consensus today. If the storm were today, Euro basically wins while every other global loses. It doesn't matter for you probably one bit. But it did matter for a lot of people to the west who were holding onto the idea that it was going to be close/exactly right. As John said maybe this is the red flag move too, we will know tonight. It didn't... it cut back for you and me and we're right on the boundary of getting screwed Shhh. How sharp is the gradient now in NW CT and western MA? -- Take away the GFS speed bias and we have very good consensus among the globals. Hopefully we see a nudge NW with the 18z NCEP models and no further ticks SE. NCEP says toss the euro and the GFS and go with the GGEM/UK, so the debate over the euro v gfs is kind of moot anyway. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 140 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 VALID JAN 25/1200 UTC THRU JAN 29/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS. ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST DAYS 1 AND 2... PREFERENCE: GEM GLOBAL OR UKMET THE NAM AND GFS TRACK THIS CYCLONE EAST OF THE ECMWF...WHICH POPS THE CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW RIGHT ON THE DELMARVA SHORE 00Z/27 THURSDAY. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET FORCE THE LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THE START OF DAY 2...WHICH FITS CLIMATOLOGY THE BEST FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH HAS FINALLY SETTLED OUT AFTER DAYS OF DISPARATE MODEL SOLUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My God, the North Pole comes to the US on the euro. It also tries to give us a swfe/cutter near D8 or so. that's pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't see anyone implying that. and I'm not on the border of anything I thought what Will and Scott implied was use a blend 70% Euro, 30% other Globals. NAM ATT discarded but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I thought what Will and Scott implied was use a blend 70% Euro, 30% other Globals. NAM ATT discarded but we'll see. I thought Pickles was saying 70%Euro..30%mesos..Why would anyone use mesos yet?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 today's a nice example of how the models sometimes push arctic air masses out way too fast...and what can happen pretty easily with just some light WAA and deep low level cold. pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm going 5-8 for down here. Second call. Ratios should be pretty good, 5-8", 5-9" would be reasonable based on the euro qpf........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I thought Pickles was saying 70%Euro..30%mesos..Why would anyone use mesos yet?? No I'm pretty sure they didn't say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Epic storm looming first week of Feb folks.... I've been hinting at this in some recent posts over the last couple days. We are seeing some signal here - Is this beyond D10? Not the D8 event the Euro shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 492 thickness down to TN....wowzers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 how has ukie and GEM been trending? the ukie is this strange for the NCEP TO go with uncle ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 EURO qpfs were requested but too much distracting bickering on this thread... Tombo in the Philly thread was nice enough to deliver... QPF estimates from the 12Z EURO: "they are in this ball park bed .8-1 bos 1.1-1.2 orh 1- 1.1 chh 1.2-1.3 tan 1.2-1.3 pym 1.2-1.3 ewb 1.35-1.45" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 492 thickness down to TN....wowzers! If there ever was a cutter which could bring us prodigious snows this would be the winter, holy Tundra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 492 thickness down to TN....wowzers! lol i know... nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I thought what Will and Scott implied was use a blend 70% Euro, 30% other Globals. NAM ATT discarded but we'll see. how has ukie and GEM been trending? the ukie is this strange for the NCEP TO go with uncle ukie. Even odder that they go with the GGEM UK combo but they have their reasons. EURO qpfs were requested but too much distracting bickering on this thread... Tombo in the Philly thread was nice enough to deliver... QPF estimates from the 12Z EURO: "they are in this ball park bed .8-1 bos 1.1-1.2 orh 1- 1.1 chh 1.2-1.3 tan 1.2-1.3 pym 1.2-1.3 ewb 1.35-1.45" Tombo is great, thanks very much and thank him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 492 thickness down to TN....wowzers! I was driving around Brookline today and I couldn't believe some of the side streets....I'm not sure where they are going to put another 6-12", but most of those little streets will be impassable. Liking where I am for this one...might be in the bullseye for qpf and just N of the mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 492 thickness down to TN....wowzers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaryS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No mention of amounts in the latest from BOX ...... Interesting AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 158 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 .SYNOPSIS... SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGIONTODAY...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF STATESWILL WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THURSDAY. THISCOASTAL STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...HEAVY SNOW AND OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TOTHE REGION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...MAINLYSOUTH AND EAST OF I-95. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH BY 21Z WITH ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. RECEIVED A MESSAGE FROM MASS DEPT OF ENVIRONMENTALPROTECTION FOR AN AIR QUALITY ALERT DAY FOR THE SPRINGFIELD AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE SENT OUT THE STATEMENT WITH THIS INFORMATION. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOWFOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLINGCONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH DEEP SNOWPACK...THUS SIDEDWITH THE COLDER MAV TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. WEDNESDAY... INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SOME TIMINGDIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/ECMWFARE 3-6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. INHERENT DRY AIRMASS MAY CAUSE ADELAY IN ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASSPIKE. HAVE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THEAFTERNOON HOURS BUT THE BULK OF THIS WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTILAFTER DARK. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 25/00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIRTRACKS OF A LOW PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT STILLDIFFER CONSIDERABLY WITH THEIR TIMING. CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN ENOUGHTO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THINKING THE BRUNT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAYNIGHT...BUT WANTED TO PAD THE START AND ENDING TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING DIFFERENCES. THINKING THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONGTHE SOUTH COAST OF MA...ASWELL AS PORTIONS OF RI AND PERHAPS NORTHERN CT AS WELL. HOW LONG THIS LASTS IS STILL IN DOUBT. THATSAID...DO THINK SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY EVENING TOCHANGE ALL MIXED PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO SEE N-NE WINDS INCREASING DURING WEDNESDAYNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ALONG THE E COAST AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. LOW TOMEDIUM PROBABILITY OF WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The h5 confluence to the N is scary for this area. We've been burned by it in the recent past. It argues for a sharp QPF gradient at least. On the other hand, seasonal trend is to tick NW in the last 24 hours, which is consistent with underestimating the SE ridge in la nina and we've seen 'western side of the envelope' tracks. Not to mention, there's no monster block in place like last year, and we verified an advisory last night from out nowhere. Looks like a classic setup. I remain pretty confident of warning criteria despite the american models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ec soundings nice and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ec soundings nice and cold. fluff minibomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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