weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The RAOB missing in a key area from the NAM makes me suspicious of it. That said the Euro did come a long way off it's solution of a big wrapped up storm. It's now like all the others in having a semi-split shield and it takes longer to wrap up. What if the meso's aren't having feedback issues but are instead picking up on what will be intense banding that limits the NW extent of precip? No it didn't . It adjusted and made some relatively small changes. No one will likely get 20 but per Euro many get 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BDL could be VERY close to a top 10 winter when this storm is all said and done...I think they need something between 10-12''. You really think they are going to get this much?? That would be nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 CISCO recommends the 00z ECMWF fwiw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You are really reaching. We should say the NAM really caved too in favor of the Euro since it came NW from its whiff at 06z. yeah the NAM was a huge whiff, lol....its been atrocious IMO with this event. but i guess its just the usual waffling and arrival at concensus. ensembles have been great, and I'm really starting to learn this winter from you, why you should use them........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay I will try once more a pain in the ass that I am. Looking for Euro QPF for NH Lakes Region/PLY NH. Read entire thread no one posted for this area. Really appreciated the info Thanks Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You really think they are going to get this much?? That would be nice.. Well to be exact they need 11.8''...I went 8-14'' for the area but not sure if we will get more than 10-11''. If this thing tracks any more east than modeled we can easily forget that. I think we should be good for at least 6-8''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well to be exact they need 11.8''...I went 8-14'' for the area but not sure if we will get more than 10-11''. If this thing tracks any more east than modeled we can easily forget that. I think we should be good for at least 6-8''. Ya thats my guess also.. Probably more towards the 6 side.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteOut56 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 JB Update 1 PM DCA to NYC 6 -12 starts as rain Probably some 18" from PA (west of PHL) into SNE GFS is too weak & too far east Hmmmmm....that would be nice, but I'm leaning toward 6-10" for central Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay I will try once more a pain in the ass that I am. Looking for Euro QPF for NH Lakes Region/PLY NH. Read entire thread no one posted for this area. Really appreciated the info Thanks Gene Plymouth,NH about 0.3 if you're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Love the spread... Not criticizing any professional forecasters by any means, quite the opposite... this is an extremely difficult scenario and I have all the respect for those who have to put their money down on a solution. Just a reflection of the difficulty here. We are within 24 hr frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay I will try once more a pain in the ass that I am. Looking for Euro QPF for NH Lakes Region/PLY NH. Read entire thread no one posted for this area. Really appreciated the info Thanks Gene based on low res maps ! ply is likely around 0.35-0.4 lakes region are in the 0.4-0.6 range as you move east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm wondering how JB is getting that forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At what point can ratios be estimated? Not sure this will be the high ratio fluff we have gotten lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You are really reaching. We should say the NAM really caved too in favor of the Euro since it came NW from its whiff at 06z. You said last night you felt the idea of the moisture running out ahead of the support was wrong/that the split idea was wrong. The euro doesn't wrap up like it did, as early as it did. It just came off the idea of pounding far western areas with another epic storm. Who cares what the NAM did, I think everyone has put it on the burner until it's not missing critical data. Why don't you post the 700 RH maps (or if Scott has them so we can overlay) from last night versus todays run, and the QPF totals from selected points like Albany, southern Vermont, NW CT, western MA, west/southwest NH? It's changed how it's handling the system. Wrapping up later was a premise of all the other models coming into the 12z today. No it didn't . It adjusted and made some relatively small changes. No one will likely get 20 but per Euro many get 12+. It's a two part storm on the Euro, or closer to it. That's not a minor change SW of us. There's no sense fighting over it, I don't think we're done with that change. We can pick up the merits at a later time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Love the spread... Not criticizing any professional forecasters by any means, quite the opposite... this is an extremely difficult scenario and I have all the respect for those who have to put their money down on a solution. Just a reflection of the difficulty here. We are within 24 hr frame. Why is Barry going so much lower than most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The speed of this storm will make it tough for huge amounts...we saw most guidance slower the previous 2 days, but its really hauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay I will try once more a pain in the ass that I am. Looking for Euro QPF for NH Lakes Region/PLY NH. Read entire thread no one posted for this area. Really appreciated the info Thanks Gene Its in the NNE thread........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My God, the North Pole comes to the US on the euro. It also tries to give us a swfe/cutter near D8 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's a two part storm on the Euro, or closer to it. That's not a minor change SW of us. There's no sense fighting over it, I don't think we're done with that change. We can pick up the merits at a later time. How is it a 2 part storm???????? it comes in with a bang around 36 hours and dumps through 48 and tapers off to 54. Typical big storm. I'm perplexed how you are getting this from the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My God, the North Pole comes to the US on the euro. It also tries to give us a swfe/cutter near D8 or so. 504 thickness to Virginia........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You said last night you felt the idea of the moisture running out ahead of the support was wrong/that the split idea was wrong. The euro doesn't wrap up like it did, as early as it did. It just came off the idea of pounding far western areas with another epic storm. Who cares what the NAM did, I think everyone has put it on the burner until it's not missing critical data. Why don't you post the 700 RH maps (or if Scott has them so we can overlay) from last night versus todays run, and the QPF totals from selected points like Albany, southern Vermont, NW CT, western MA, west/southwest NH? It's changed how it's handling the system. Wrapping up later was a premise of all the other models coming into the 12z today. I've said the whole time I don't think its fragmented by the time it reaches us, I'm not talking about well S of here. But at any rate, I'm not going to get into one of these obscene 2 pages debates with you over semantics that has little affect on the sensible wx forecast. Bottom line is most guidance is much closer to the Euro than the mesoscale models. I don't think anyone was forecasting 2 feet of snow despite the uber wrapped Euro solution. I have said I believe the Euro was closer to reality than the mesoscales, and I'm sticking with that. You can believe what you want or how some model is moving a little vortmax in the gulf of mexico the wrong direction but its "still a great storm for most us"...I'm mostly interested in 3 things: timing, duration, and snow totals. To get those 3 things, I'm focusing on the track of the upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 CISCO recommends the 00z ECMWF fwiw - What's CISCO? And also, the Feb storm you are reffering to is the Apps cutter in 174hr, right? (Hope that solution doesn't verify!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't think anyone was forecasting 2 feet of snow despite the uber wrapped Euro solution. I have said I believe the Euro was closer to reality than the mesoscales, and I'm sticking with that. You can believe what you want or how some model is moving a little vortmax in the gulf of mexico the wrong direction but its "still a great storm for most us"...I'm mostly interested in 3 things: timing, duration, and snow totals. To get those 3 things, I'm focusing on the track of the upper level low. well, other than CT Blizz you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What's CISCO? And also, the Feb storm you are reffering to is the Apps cutter in 174hr, right? (Hope that solution doesn't verify!) I think he's referring to what the Euro is cooking D10 in a boreal NOAM environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How is it a 2 part storm???????? it comes in with a bang around 36 hours and dumps through 48 and tapers off to 54. Typical big storm. I'm perplexed how you are getting this from the Euro? SW Jerry, No model shows a two part storm...you know what I mean. Instead of the initial pulse getting entrained into the entire system it's ending up a little east. So when the entire thing WRAPS UP LATER (YOUR WORDS), it's not able to produce as much snow as it was earlier as far west. The CCB gets ripping, we get our snow, the kicker comes in and closes the door. I'm done fighting over it, the Euro didn't hold serve, tick west, or anything else but move east, and shift the dynamics ESE in far western areas. It moved towards consensus as everything moved towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The speed of this storm will make it tough for huge amounts...we saw most guidance slower the previous 2 days, but its really hauling. One of these days we will get a nice, long duration event. Most of what we have seen this winter have been fairly quick. I long for a CCB that just parks its snowy but overhead for 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How is it a 2 part storm???????? it comes in with a bang around 36 hours and dumps through 48 and tapers off to 54. Typical big storm. I'm perplexed how you are getting this from the Euro? We thought it would trim back qpf a bit and move a hair se..it did. The NAM will probably come nw again at 18z. My guess is the GFS will too. This is what sometimes happens when models have different solutions. A compromise. The question is....how weighted is the compromise?? Is it more to the GFS/NAM or Euro? I just don't see how one caved to the other. You can pick apart any change on a model and make it the principle of your argument. I think we are stabilizing overall, but I think the NAM and GFS may tick a little nw at 18z. As far as the euro goes, maybe it moves 10 miles se at 00z..I dunno, but I would not be shocked if it holds steadfast overall. That's some nice convection in the GOM. Edit: I meant would not be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I've said the whole time I don't think its fragmented by the time it reaches us, I'm not talking about well S of here. But at any rate, I'm not going to get into one of these obscene 2 pages debates with you over semantics that has little affect on the sensible wx forecast. Bottom line is most guidance is much closer to the Euro than the mesoscale models. I don't think anyone was forecasting 2 feet of snow despite the uber wrapped Euro solution. I have said I believe the Euro was closer to reality than the mesoscales, and I'm sticking with that. You can believe what you want or how some model is moving a little vortmax in the gulf of mexico the wrong direction but its "still a great storm for most us"...I'm mostly interested in 3 things: timing, duration, and snow totals. To get those 3 things, I'm focusing on the track of the upper level low. That's a nice, out of context/never spoken shot you threw in bravo as a moderator. Way to play by the rules of attacking the idea but not the poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well the Euro shifted east a fair amount from its days 6-7 progs to around day 4. Obviously it's earlier hugger or inland runner scenario didn't work out. SYR won't be under 18" of snow on Thursday morning. But it has been pretty stable over the past few days. No it didn't . It adjusted and made some relatively small changes. No one will likely get 20 but per Euro many get 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just got back from HFD. Nice to see NCEP cave in to the Euro AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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