H2Otown_WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Where's the map, all I see is a topo of the US? NMM has done a better job, usually is wetter. Sorry about that, I was on a Mac in the weather center at my school and I couldn't figure out how to save a picture. Here it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay so about a 50% trim. I'm not being a dick when I point out the euro caved towards the other guidance. It's still a great hit, but it was overblown on the big happy storm and came to the splitter. it's still considerably more amplified than the GFS...it's hard to say it caved...but yeah it did shift southeast by a tad due to the northern kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I thought it was more amplified than last run...why the shift east? It may be that same amplitude is causing it to erode the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge ...just a supposition. But yeah, odd and interesting variance. I'm going to fall off my chair if the NAM wins this again - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaryS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NECN holds serve with wide spread 12+ After watching the TV mets calls, reading and watching here in the forum, latest qpf from the Euro, I think that 12+ should be about right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'd say it's still a bit touchy for this one... mentions of a tick east on the Euro have me nervous. I would think a little bit east would be a good thing for us,limits any mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well...it appears the eastern NE winter continues... Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 it's still considerably more amplified than the GFS...it's hard to say it caved...but yeah it did shift southeast by a tad due to the northern kicker. We are probably going to end up with like a 70/30 hedge toward the original Euro solution in the end. This is close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 so we need the N. stream SW to slow down or weaken? or stay the same (per euro) to not F us? what models have a good handle (historically?) on this type of feature? has it been trending faster ....slower....stronger ...weaker.....more S. more N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We are probably going to end up with like a 70/30 hedge toward the original Euro solution in the end. This is close to that. I agree. That's pretty much the compromise I've been thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 question: how often does HPC update their probability maps? Several times a day based on model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay so about a 50% trim. I'm not being a dick when I point out the euro caved towards the other guidance. It's still a great hit, but it was overblown on the big happy storm and came to the splitter. it hasnt been a rock this year, thats for sure. when the NAM is winning battles, its been a tricky winter euro is just another piece of guidance this season. best bet has been to ride the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Please. What's your seasonal total vs climo so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If the Euro ticks east again that's going to start causing problems for some back here. Blah. It's okay though, because in this winter, there's a train of threats right behind this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 so we need the N. stream SW to slow down or weaken? or stay the same (per euro) to not F us? ive been cursing that northern stream energy for the past 5 days. its pretty much what stops the storm from getting up here......and turning you guys to mix. just be happy you have it around, to at least keep you snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What's your seasonal total vs climo so far? Not sure. Maybe dbl or btr. I think after this mornings 4" I'm over 80". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ive been cursing that northern stream energy for the past 5 days. its pretty much what stops the storm from getting up here......and turning you guys to mix. just be happy you have it around, to at least keep you snowy. nice so this event depends on the N. stream threading the needle to a degree. i guess we knew that but it should be what keeps things especially interesting in the last 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 it's still considerably more amplified than the GFS...it's hard to say it caved...but yeah it did shift southeast by a tad due to the northern kicker. It was the only model with a region wide mega storm. It caved. It's still a great storm. it hasnt been a rock this year, thats for sure. when the NAM is winning battles, its been a tricky winter euro is just another piece of guidance this season. best bet has been to ride the ensembles. Yeah I agree. The only concern I have going forward now is with the Euro coming off the western position some - every single meso model is more SE. If it's not a feedback issue but instead that QPF/dynamics won't extend as far NW on the other side of intense banding...things could still change. Leaves the door open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Really liked the idea someone had of a Euro QPF thread with a list of NE stations that someone with access could just plug in after a run. Hate to ask how much in my backyard but no one has meantioned Plymouth NH, Laconia or Leb NH amounts for 12Z Euro. I would really appreciate if someone could post. Thanks!!!! Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2 features on 12Z Euro. 1. It has moved about 10 miles east and is now over the BM but that may not be the most important change. 2. It doesn't wrap up until late in the game. That limits the more expansive qpf it had earlier. If NAM wins bow down to it but I'd be shocked and fall off a more precarious chair than John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NECN holds serve with wide spread 12+ After watching the TV mets calls, reading and watching here in the forum, latest qpf from the Euro, I think that 12+ should be about right... Where is that at.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2 features on 12Z Euro. 1. It has moved about 10 miles east and is now over the BM but that may not be the most important change. 2. It doesn't wrap up until late in the game. That limits the more expansive qpf it had earlier. If NAM wins bow down to it but I'd be shocked and fall off a more precarious chair than John. Does it have my clipper?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2 features on 12Z Euro. 1. It has moved about 10 miles east and is now over the BM but that may not be the most important change. 2. It doesn't wrap up until late in the game. That limits the more expansive qpf it had earlier. If NAM wins bow down to it but I'd be shocked and fall off a more precarious chair than John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not sure. Maybe dbl or btr. I think after this mornings 4" I'm over 80". Hmmmm...I think I'm close to triple climo now....I win, you lose. Meat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Does it have my clipper?! Indeed it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2 features on 12Z Euro. 1. It has moved about 10 miles east and is now over the BM but that may not be the most important change. 2. It doesn't wrap up until late in the game. That limits the more expansive qpf it had earlier. If NAM wins bow down to it but I'd be shocked and fall off a more precarious chair than John. The RAOB missing in a key area from the NAM makes me suspicious of it. That said the Euro did come a long way off it's solution of a big wrapped up storm. It's now like all the others in having a semi-split shield and it takes longer to wrap up. What if the meso's aren't having feedback issues but are instead picking up on what will be intense banding that limits the NW extent of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Indeed it does. That's all I really care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It was the only model with a region wide mega storm. It caved. It's still a great storm. Leaves the door open. You are really reaching. We should say the NAM really caved too in favor of the Euro since it came NW from its whiff at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Epic storm looming first week of Feb folks.... I've been hinting at this in some recent posts over the last couple days. We are seeing some signal here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hmmmm...I think I'm close to triple climo now....I win, you lose. Meat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BDL could be VERY close to a top 10 winter when this storm is all said and done...I think they need something between 10-12''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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