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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco V


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah, it shifted east a bit with the track… I’d say that’s a pretty significant red flag here -

Are you kidding around or serious?

The only thing it makes me wonder about out loud....if the GFS AND euro ticked east does that give a nod to the meso models at least enough to leave some doubt until the 0z?

From the maps I can see there was a decent continuity break towards the GFS/NAM/RGEM idea of a split in the RH, the Bastardi two parter which is the big red flag for me.

If I were Bob I'd feel great, if I was back 5 miles west likewise I'd be thrilled.

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Versus what last run?

nice storm...probably not done shifting east but it won't matter for most.

Per the descriptions elsewhere it's gone towards the split system which hurts areas N and NW and also helps with temps down here.

Now the ? is with the Euro sliding a little east, how legit is the meso debacle? Both the GFS and Euro nudged east some it would seem.

latest run GC in the same regions that now get 0.5-0.75...........was 0.75 - 1.4 or so last night with a stacked gradient

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I thought it was more amplified than last run...why the shift east?

Northern stream impulse coming from the lakes doesn't quite allow it to wrap in as close once it reaches further N...it tries to kick it E...looking on how it evolves, that's going to be a tedious feature that models will probably struggle with a bit from run to run until its closer in good data region...its in the no mans land of Canada at the moment. It should be pretty well sampled at 00z.

Its basically a fight between that and the southern stream. The stronger the southern stream, the more it will try and fight the urge to get booted east...but if that northern stream feature is also becoming more robust then it can offset a stronger trend down south.

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latest run GC in the same regions that now get 0.5-0.75...........was 0.75 - 1.4 or so last night with a stacked gradient

Okay so about a 50% trim. I'm not being a dick when I point out the euro caved towards the other guidance. It's still a great hit, but it was overblown on the big happy storm and came to the splitter.

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I'd say it's still a bit touchy for this one... mentions of a tick east on the Euro have me nervous.

We live as far east as you can get without going to the cape more or less in SNE. The northern extent depends on when it gets kicked. All models have a warning storm except the NAM. 6-12.

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