OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 guys i'm sorry i don't have the time to really read up 15+ pages today......(car getting worked on and B.s issues) but what is latest with this......? i guess were still waiting on euro with gs data did the accums get toned down a bit for the western bos burbs? I think you're sitting pretty right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's a good explanation to those who do not understand the difference. I think it's tough for people to figure out why some side with mesoscale and in some instances, we don't. That helps. BTW, going back to the convection and latent heat release that I talked about yesterday,,,check out the GOM right now. I think most understood the difference. I think the problem is we don't understand why during particular events one/some favor one solution versus another because up until this page nobody said why. I'm sure you do in PM's, texts, tweets or whatever to one another, but as a group you didn't say it here. So it's impossible to understand why you favor one over another if you don't say it to the group. If you believe this time it's convective feedback so we dump all the meso models that's fine...but until it's said it's hard to differentiate the reasoning. Make sense? I thank you both for the explanation. certainly...I used the UK a whole lot while forecasting in Bermuda with plenty of success. There's plenty of times where I think the NAM is just off it's rocker and wrong...doesn't matter what time range. I would look at it rarely in Bermuda...it wasn't worth even confusing myself with it's solutions most of the time. Did you get a lot of snowstorms in Bermuda Just joking. The NAM is missing a critical RAOB, that alone would cause me to discount it. It probably also contaminates everything else that comes off the same initial grid. -- Not anywhere near an identical situation, but the bust down here where we had the trough and elongated areas of low pressure....the models all focused on the western flank. Gradually the developments further east with the transient vm that most of us thought was convectively induced became the dominant low. It's kind of a similar struggle this time, I think the low will be elongated for a time, but for how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 ETauntonMA: What are your thoughts for the area after seeing the GFS? Do you think we have to worry about rain as much as before? I'm feeling better about not seeing rain issues, minus seeing the Euro today. Can't rule it out still. I do think there will be sleet issues for a time but the trend has been to ever so slightly cool this system as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think you're sitting pretty right now. great thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 guys i'm sorry i don't have the time to really read up 15+ pages today......(car getting worked on and B.s issues) but what is latest with this......? i guess were still waiting on euro with gs data did the accums get toned down a bit for the western bos burbs? really depends who you ask.. looks like B. Burbank jumped off the bridge and drastically cut the forecast better posters here seem to be sticking with 0z euro or some blend featuring it, which would still mean game on 4u. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think most understood the difference. I think the problem is we don't understand why during particular events one/some favor one solution versus another because up until this page nobody said why. I'm sure you do in PM's, texts, tweets or whatever to one another, but as a group you didn't say it here. So it's impossible to understand why you favor one over another if you don't say it to the group. If you believe this time it's convective feedback so we dump all the meso models that's fine...but until it's said it's hard to differentiate the reasoning. Make sense? I thank you both for the explanation. Did you get a lot of snowstorms in Bermuda Just joking. The NAM is missing a critical RAOB, that alone would cause me to discount it. It probably also contaminates everything else that comes off the same initial grid. -- Not anywhere near an identical situation, but the bust down here where we had the trough and elongated areas of low pressure....the models all focused on the western flank. Gradually the developments further east with the transient vm that most of us thought was convectively induced became the dominant low. It's kind of a similar struggle this time, I think the low will be elongated for a time, but for how long? The other issue is that the feature we were discussing that entered into the Bay of Campeche this morning is right on the edge of the model boundary...which can cause some issues with strength and amplitude. That is one of the reasons the NAM was awful in Bermuda, we are relatively close to the eastern edge of the boundary. The Euro did resolve that feature...you can see it on the 850mb vorticity on Allen's site. That makes me feel more confident that the NAM wasn't exactly correct with it's depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks, Hopefully the Euro comes in a little colder. I'm feeling better about not seeing rain issues, minus seeing the Euro today. Can't rule it out still. I do think there will be sleet issues for a time but the trend has been to ever so slightly cool this system as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm waiting for the DGEX before locking in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What was the Ukie precip like for the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm waiting for the DGEX before locking in... For Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Upton did not wait until 4, just pulled the trigger for the rest of us: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1200 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... CTZ009>012-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-260600- /O.EXB.KOKX.WS.A.0004.110126T1800Z-110127T1500Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 1200 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...WITH A PERIOD OF A RAIN AND SLEET MIX AT THE ONSET. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. * WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 30 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN TURNING NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST WINDS EAST. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The other issue is that the feature we were discussing that entered into the Bay of Campeche this morning is right on the edge of the model boundary...which can cause some issues with strength and amplitude. That is one of the reasons the NAM was awful in Bermuda, we are relatively close to the eastern edge of the boundary. The Euro did resolve that feature...you can see it on the 850mb vorticity on Allen's site. That makes me feel more confident that the NAM wasn't exactly correct with it's depiction. Entirely agree. I think I mentioned it to start this thread that I think it'll be the 0z runs tonight that paint the picture once and for all. I'm glad Will/Scott explained their reasoning on tossing the mesos...I think it's a plausible explanation for sure. My only comment is that in the past there were times when NCEP and everyone else thought we had convective issues and although it turned out that we did to some extent, they had less of an effect than we thought. The NAM at 12z has it's issues, and hopefully at 0z we'll see a cleaner picture, no missing key RAOBS, and subsequently a much better meso suite. FWIW, the GEFS ens did shift SE from the 0z. The MM5 not surprisingly mirrors the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhj Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 winter storm watch just issued by upton to include the ct shore,nyc and long island.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I really think Burbank works for the Chamber of Commerce sometimes....he always pushes every storm OTS before any other model or model convergence takes place...he always so conservative...or hugs the weakest of the model runs...I just don't get em...great guy..but...geeze.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think most understood the difference. I think the problem is we don't understand why during particular events one/some favor one solution versus another because up until this page nobody said why. I'm sure you do in PM's, texts, tweets or whatever to one another, but as a group you didn't say it here. So it's impossible to understand why you favor one over another if you don't say it to the group. If you believe this time it's convective feedback so we dump all the meso models that's fine...but until it's said it's hard to differentiate the reasoning. Make sense? I thank you both for the explanation. Did you get a lot of snowstorms in Bermuda Just joking. The NAM is missing a critical RAOB, that alone would cause me to discount it. It probably also contaminates everything else that comes off the same initial grid. -- Not anywhere near an identical situation, but the bust down here where we had the trough and elongated areas of low pressure....the models all focused on the western flank. Gradually the developments further east with the transient vm that most of us thought was convectively induced became the dominant low. It's kind of a similar struggle this time, I think the low will be elongated for a time, but for how long? Well I wouldn't totally dump a model. I think there are times when models are good in certain situations. The regionals and the globals are in a battle right now. With such strong convection in the gulf, it is easy for some of the models which are non-hydrostatic, to go nuts with convection and spin up or place an area of low pressure with an erroneous track. Seeing the GFS a little better than 06z, and then having the ukie and canadian hold serve tells me the euro may do the same or nudge se a tad. I'm a little confused as well to be honest. It's disheartening to see such different solutions. Sometimes when this happens we see a compromise, but my guess is the NAM may trend closer to the euro, than the euro closer to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhj Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I really think Burbank works for the Chamber of Commerce sometimes....he always pushes every storm OTS before any other model or model convergence takes place...he always so conservative...or hugs the weakest of the model runs...I just don't get em...great guy..but...geeze.. sort of like a geof fox ...may he rest in peace where ever he lands............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 at least it has trended colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I guess I could get anywhere from 3-12inches...and Channel 7 took out their 10-15 and knocked accums back down...it's about 30-36hrs till go time...this is getting frustrating...i could sneeze and clear my driveway of 3inches...but for 12 i have to gas up the snowblower...it's a big difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I guess I could get anywhere from 3-12inches...and Channel 7 took out their 10-15 and knocked accums back down...it's about 30-36hrs till go time...this is getting frustrating...i could sneeze and clear my driveway of 3inches...but for 12 i have to gas up the snowblower...it's a big difference... what did you get today? 1- 1.5 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I guess I could get anywhere from 3-12inches...and Channel 7 took out their 10-15 and knocked accums back down...it's about 30-36hrs till go time...this is getting frustrating...i could sneeze and clear my driveway of 3inches...but for 12 i have to gas up the snowblower...it's a big difference... you're not getting 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaryS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WHDH has now lowered totals... 8 to 12 vs 10 to 15 ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well I wouldn't totally dump a model. I think there are times when models are good in certain situations. The regionals and the globals are in a battle right now. With such strong convection in the gulf, it is easy for some of the models which are non-hydrostatic, to go nuts with convection and spin up or place an area of low pressure with an erroneous track. Seeing the GFS a little better than 06z, and then having the ukie and canadian hold serve tells me the euro may do the same or nudge se a tad. I'm a little confused as well to be honest. It's disheartening to see such different solutions. Sometimes when this happens we see a compromise, but my guess is the NAM may trend closer to the euro, than the euro closer to the NAM. I agree with all of that. The NAM losing that RAOB plays a part too. The only difference I see between the UK/GFS and 0z Euro is that the EC was a tight low pressure where the UK/GFS are elongated. The GFS has the fast bias as always so that has to be accounted for as well. I think the only real change we'll see on the Euro is perhaps an elongation of the system to account for the developments to the east. I also think we won't see the final trend emerge until the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WHDH has now lowered totals... 8 to 12 vs 10 to 15 ..... They will push them back up after the Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I guess I could get anywhere from 3-12inches...and Channel 7 took out their 10-15 and knocked accums back down...it's about 30-36hrs till go time...this is getting frustrating...i could sneeze and clear my driveway of 3inches...but for 12 i have to gas up the snowblower...it's a big difference... Thats because their aft weathergirl leans on the GFS somewhat, I have a feeling once Bouchard comes in he'll change that map again, pending the Euro of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 you're not getting 3". Closer to 13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thats because their aft weathergirl leans on the GFS somewhat, I have a feeling once Bouchard comes in he'll change that map again, pending the Euro of course. Yeah Pete will be balls to the walls with a 15-20 inch range if the Euro holds serve. If he thinks a solution will pan out, he will go for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thats because their aft weathergirl leans on the GFS somewhat, I have a feeling once Bouchard comes in he'll change that map again, pending the Euro of course. i hope the euro shows a 1.75 qpf boston metro snowbomb and everyone is stuck hedging also that i get to hear b. burbank's voice squeak when he says 3-6 for bos on the 2pm WBZ weather repot. lol ....then he will throw in" but should this thing trend north then here we go again....and latest indications are that it very well could" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WHDH has now lowered totals... 8 to 12 vs 10 to 15 ..... lol, that's what they get for throwing totals out beyond 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 While we're waiting for the Euro, here is the GGEM at 42h (not seen on the EC site) to get a better feel for the mid-level features Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's crazy to me that all these cuts on totals by local mets due to meso models on the edge of their best range while the higher verification intl models for this time range are keeping steady with heavy heavy qpf and a sensible wx solution. Can't wait to see what the euro does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.