weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What was the prior run? I only saw 0Z and a decent hit but not like that....this one goes to town on the normally sedate NGP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM a HUGE hit!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This thread is a mess with all the weenie IMBY coments flying around..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh lord that CF is pushing north a little, there are some pissed off people around, LOL. Comments heard, f'in winter, they never said we have this much today, hey did you hear 20 inches tomorrow LOL gonna need cleanup number two me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The RGEM/NAM are furthest SE with the precip. The GGEM/NOGAPS/GFS/UK are further NW. Globals vs Regionals. I ask this question hypothetically but haven't we always sided with the meso's in closer this year? What's the rationale behind the globals being more right....feedback in the regionals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Widespread heavy snow...for SNE at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm going to play the point and click game - it amuses me that mine has no mention of anything except snow right now, with less than an inch tonight and 5-9 tomorrow. Maybe it will be watch time for us at 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This thread is a mess with all the weenie IMBY coments flying around..... It gon snow wow on GGEM, Euro will lock this Mofo up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The RGEM/NAM are furthest SE with the precip. The GGEM/NOGAPS/GFS/UK are further NW. Globals vs Regionals. I ask this question hypothetically but haven't we always sided with the meso's in closer this year? What's the rationale behind the globals being more right....feedback in the regionals? Euro is both a global and a meso per what Brian (dendrite) said a few weeks back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, I wrote that to you two pages ago - I don't think you saw the post haha Oh I didnt't see it..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 This thread is a mess with bitching/arguing about minute model semantics..... Carry on. So far nothing of the 12z suite dissuades my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NOGAPS: inside the bm...how many in a row? will red flag happy to say i'm flying home tonight nside the bm...how many in a row? will red flag happy to say i'm flying home tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM WOW! Yup, dismiss the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This thread is a mess with all the weenie IMBY coments flying around..... Really? I thought it was rather reserved compared to some of the ramblings we've seen in other storm threads this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, I wrote that to you two pages ago - I don't think you saw the post haha Agree with your thoughts. Low thickness fluff job possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 His point was your overlay had UKMET more amped at H5 allowing the difference in qpf. Objectively/subjectively was there ever a time when you'd say you'd use the NOGAPS/UK/GGEM for short range forecasting over the RGEM/NAM? My point which was not even a big one is that at 42 hours that's about as good agreement as you'll get on an east coast storm. Both of those models have their biases, the fact that all of the Globals are NW and so far the regionals are SE is telling. That's the larger question. Again pending the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How much qpf is that on the GGEM? I can't see it on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro is both a global and a meso per what Brian (dendrite) said a few weeks back.. It has the resolution of a mesoscale model but it is not non-hydrostatic like the mesoscale models so its not nearly as prone to convective feedback. In a situation like January 12th, we had a compact bowling ball with all the features very tightly wrapped and a lot of convection near the center of the low...this gave the non-hydrostatic models a rare advantage over models like the Euro....in storms with larger circulation and lots of convection away from the center, the mesoscale models can really screw it up with convective feedback far the from the center and try to form its own new low. That's the idea anyway. Who knows if it will work this time around, but my money is on the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ryan, how much snow would that be for SNE on the 12z GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM chalk another one up inside the bm. euro, ggem, nogaps nam coming around a little gfs holding with its se bias but trending to euro in northern stream wonder what the next srefs run will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 why does the only weather report i hear today ...(in the car) .....consist of "3" N and west of boston .....with a dusting to S . NH .....Fokkin B. burbank.....almost made me swerve across traffic lanes. the other radio guy cuts in after barry was done....and says well are you watchin to see if this gets closer.....and then maybe we get more.....barry says yes we still have to watch the track to see "if another piece hit's us" Please tell me this storm didn't turn into a scrapper for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It has the resolution of a mesoscale model but it is not non-hydrostatic like the mesoscale models so its not nearly as prone to convective feedback. In a situation like January 12th, we had a compact bowling ball with all the features very tightly wrapped and a lot of convection near the center of the low...this gave the non-hydrostatic models a rare advantage over models like the Euro....in storms with larger circulation and lots of convection away from the center, the mesoscale models can really screw it up with convective feedback far the from the center and try to form its own new low. That's the idea anyway. Who knows if it will work this time around, but my money is on the global models. That's a good explanation to those who do not understand the difference. I think it's tough for people to figure out why some side with mesoscale and in some instances, we don't. That helps. BTW, going back to the convection and latent heat release that I talked about yesterday,,,check out the GOM right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well, yeah, it kind of is. Because going D-3 when everything points to a foot or at least 8 is irresponsible. He isn't forecasting to Americanwx. He's forecasting to the general public. When they see D-3, they think that this storm is no big deal. No preparations. Then when the afternoon met comes in the forecast will all of a sudden be 12 inches in N. Mass/SNH. This is the third day when, depending on the time of day, you get a completely different forecast solely because Burbank is too stubborn to change his forecast. What type of preparations do people have to make? Stock up on bread and milk is this the 1900's lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 chalk another one up inside the bm. euro, ggem, nogaps nam coming around a little gfs holding with its se bias but trending to euro in northern stream wonder what the next srefs run will show. I think it's right on the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Carry on. So far nothing of the 12z suite dissuades my thoughts. As well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Objectively/subjectively was there ever a time when you'd say you'd use the NOGAPS/UK/GGEM for short range forecasting over the RGEM/NAM? My point which was not even a big one is that at 42 hours that's about as good agreement as you'll get on an east coast storm. Both of those models have their biases, the fact that all of the Globals are NW and so far the regionals are SE is telling. That's the larger question. Again pending the Euro. certainly...I used the UK a whole lot while forecasting in Bermuda with plenty of success. There's plenty of times where I think the NAM is just off it's rocker and wrong...doesn't matter what time range. I would look at it rarely in Bermuda...it wasn't worth even confusing myself with it's solutions most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the GGEM total qpf is lighter than the euro but still a nice hit but the GGEM qpf is useless at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ETauntonMA: What are your thoughts for the area after seeing the GFS? Do you think we have to worry about rain as much as before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Either he is going to bust bad or has an inkling about something almost no one else is thinking... He used to be really good, but maybe this is just a blip.. ULowell grad! Thinking another 6-9" deal for you and me I agree, and a little more acceptable than a D-3" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 guys i'm sorry i don't have the time to really read up 15+ pages today......(car getting worked on and B.s issues) but what is latest with this......? i guess were still waiting on euro with gs data did the accums get toned down a bit for the western bos burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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