Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes agreed...its not quite as amped up as the 00z Euro but its definitely more robust than the 12z GFS....he just proved it by overlaying the height field...you can see how the ridging to the east of the 5h low S of sne gets ripped NW into SNE on the Ukie and it doesn't on the GFS. I didn't prove anything Will, you are really reaching. It's a 42 hour model depiction that I posted full well understanding what it showed not trying to prove a point one way or the other. Instead of speaking in vague terms I felt it best to post the actual maps and let the people here decide if at 42 hours a few miles was worth all the discussion. It's an exact overlay from the same source, it wasn't posted to prove points one way or the other. This is the UK and GFS we're talking about, it took the UK until 12 hours before the last big snow to figure out there was even going to be a big storm. I don't think it reinforces anything, and I look forward to seeing the Euro. Don't worry. It makes absolutely no sense and his reasoning is crude at best. "Here’s the deal. The precise path of the potent southern stream vorticity center is paramount to accurately forecasting how this is all going to shake out. The amazing continuity displayed by the normally reliable European model is creating consternation because it still is advertising a major snowfall closer to a foot plus. I am really torn because I am typically a faithful supporter of the Euro but I suspect that kicking from the northern stream is going to force the southern feature south of New England. With that said, an axis of lift does lift across the region tomorrow night and this matches up with the extrapolation of the moisture package. Consequently, at this time, I am sticking with my few to several inches of snowfall from this past weekend’s thinking. Specifically, I project 3 to 6 inches in the Boston area into southern Worcester County with 3 inches down to a dusting extending across northern MA into southern NH. On the flip side, there should be a strip of 6″ up to 8 or 9″ over much of Plymouth County into Bristol County into Rhode Island with a ribbon of 3-6″ across Cape Cod Canal onto the South Shore down to 1-3″ on the Cape after the rain turns back to snow there. A period of moderate to heavy snow is possible tomorrow night then it is a done deal and gone by dawn or just after. At this stage, I would be more surprised if a major snowfall materializes than if it misses Boston entirely." How are people supposed to plan when WHDH says 10-15 for SNH and Burbank has a dusting??? He's one of the best. How dare he go against the Euro...doesn't he see the similarities between the UK and it? I'm joking everyone relax....tough crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Pretty amazing how far south this current light snowfall trended over the last few days. I would be remiss if I did not point out how CT wins yet again today. How will it not with this storm? This is not sarcasm or me trying to be a fill in the blank. It finds a way every time this year. Maybe not yesterday's 18Z GFS win or the actual jackpot, but we are finding ways to get snow over here like it's 95-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You mean this? Since 20" looks sort ot off the table from this storm, but this could push us close to the 1/31 record. Yep, that. I never really thought 20" was ever on the table for the Wed-Thu storm anyhow; I was just hoping for a solid snow event (still not totally sold; bust potential remains). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I didn't prove anything Will, you are really reaching. It's a 42 hour model depiction that I posted full well understanding what it showed not trying to prove a point one way or the other. Instead of speaking in vague terms I felt it best to post the actual maps and let the people here decide if at 42 hours a few miles was worth all the discussion. It's an exact overlay from the same source, it wasn't posted to prove points one way or the other. This is the UK and GFS we're talking about, it took the UK until 12 hours before the last big snow to figure out there was even going to be a big storm. I don't think it reinforces anything, and I look forward to seeing the Euro. He's one of the best. How dare he go against the Euro...doesn't he see the similarities between the UK and it? I'm joking everyone relax....tough crowd. Why do mets only get scolded for going too high? Going D-3 NW of BOS in SNH is equally as bad and irresponsible as going 20-25 at this stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice call by Will on the potential for Saturday clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I didn't prove anything Will, you are really reaching. It's a 42 hour model depiction that I posted full well understanding what it showed not trying to prove a point one way or the other. Instead of speaking in vague terms I felt it best to post the actual maps and let the people here decide if at 42 hours a few miles was worth all the discussion. It's an exact overlay from the same source, it wasn't posted to prove points one way or the other. This is the UK and GFS we're talking about, it took the UK until 12 hours before the last big snow to figure out there was even going to be a big storm. I don't think it reinforces anything, and I look forward to seeing the Euro. Believe what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Why do mets only get scolded for going too high? Going D-3 NW of BOS in SNH is equally as bad and irresponsible as going 20-25 at this stage No it isn't, not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Burbank is going D-3 NW of Boston and 3-6 in the city. :axe: I honestly have no idea what goes through his head. How some people can call him a good met is beyond me. Relax. This is your 10th post on his Sunday night forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Snow If today is any prelude to the upcoming event looking back at the modeling for today's snow, it was modeled too far N. 2 days ago snow was pegged to be up in SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't worry. It makes absolutely no sense and his reasoning is crude at best. How are people supposed to plan when WHDH says 10-15 for SNH and Burbank has a dusting??? lol Reading this thread makes one realize how forecasting weather in New England can be such a challenging science even for the experts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NOGAPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 D9 on the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's a huge hit on the NOGAPS and should be a flag that we can discard the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No it isn't, not even close. Well, yeah, it kind of is. Because going D-3 when everything points to a foot or at least 8 is irresponsible. He isn't forecasting to Americanwx. He's forecasting to the general public. When they see D-3, they think that this storm is no big deal. No preparations. Then when the afternoon met comes in the forecast will all of a sudden be 12 inches in N. Mass/SNH. This is the third day when, depending on the time of day, you get a completely different forecast solely because Burbank is too stubborn to change his forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With 44.1" as of 12z BDL has broken the record for snowiest January on record. (Though 6" of that is bogus). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NOGAPS: Similar to the UKMET, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Why do mets only get scolded for going too high? Going D-3 NW of BOS in SNH is equally as bad and irresponsible as going 20-25 at this stage Harvey had almost nothing in SNH and I think nothing in SVT last night. I don't think that's irresponsible 24+ hours away if that's what they feel. They've been forecasting weather in Boston since back when a lot of the posters here were still crapping in their pants. Believe what you want. I just don't think at 42 hours it's worth that much discussion comparing the UK to the GFS. They're reasonably similar. I've never, ever seen a forecast here based on the UK. To me all that matters is it's similar to the GFS aloft, but closer to the NAMs surface low position which reflects a normal GFS fast bias which tells me a compromise will be the order. I don't take anything more from it than that, maybe you do but that's fine. EDIT...not a compromise between the GFS and NAM for the sake of clarity...a further WSW surface low, similar features aloft which would just mean a more expansive shield of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NOGAPS: Wow, fantastic! Things seem to be falling into place here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Similar to the UKMET, no? Yeah, probably a bit more amped though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I just don't think at 42 hours it's worth that much discussion comparing the UK to the GFS. They're reasonably similar. I've never, ever seen a forecast here based on the UK. To me all that matters is it's similar to the GFS aloft, but closer to the NAMs surface low position which reflects a normal GFS fast bias which tells me a compromise will be the order. I don't take anything more from it than that, maybe you do but that's fine. His point was your overlay had UKMET more amped at H5 allowing the difference in qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With 44.1" as of 12z BDL has broken the record for snowiest January on record. (Though 6" of that is bogus). That's OK though by Sat that record will not be tainted at all, agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice call by Will on the potential for Saturday clipper. yup he mentioned it yesterday or the day before...something like "honestly it looks really good", then went back to discussing the situation at hand. Man it seems like we've always got another to look at after each event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, probably a bit more amped though. Has anyone seen QPF output for the Ukie yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yup he mentioned it yesterday or the day before...something like "honestly it looks really good", then went back to discussing the situation at hand. Man it seems like we've always got another to look at after each event. As long as the vortmax is south, it will be good for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's OK though by Sat that record will not be tainted at all, agree? Agreed The big record is 45.3" from December 1945 and they may beat that today as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's a huge hit on the NOGAPS and should be a flag that we can discard the NAM. What was the prior run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That clipper looks nice! Yeah, I wrote that to you two pages ago - I don't think you saw the post haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 D-3 for my area would really stink with a storm of this magnitude. Either he is going to bust bad or has an inkling about something almost no one else is thinking... He used to be really good, but maybe this is just a blip.. ULowell grad! Thinking another 6-9" deal for you and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yup he mentioned it yesterday or the day before...something like "honestly it looks really good", then went back to discussing the situation at hand. Man it seems like we've always got another to look at after each event. Yeah. Some years, when tracking a storm, it seems like you can already see the thaw before the first flake has fallen. This year, you can already see the next snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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