Bryan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Can anyone tell me how this girl on NECN during the day has a job in this market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Burbank is going D-3 NW of Boston and 3-6 in the city. :axe: I honestly have no idea what goes through his head. How some people can call him a good met is beyond me. Does any guidance warrant D-3 nw of BOS that close in? Maybe he is sniffing something out with this or feeling it in his gut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah Ukie is definitely more amped than the 12z GFS. Has a classic look at 42h white lines are the GFS, colors the UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Barely. And not to do the same red herring deal you did with me earlier, you've said the UKIE is horrendous multiple times this winter. I think the mid levels are in very good agreement. Again, it's a good hard hit for a lot of people. Yep, lock it up. ughh whatever dude. I guess I can't mess around with you at all or else you get ****ty. You've been ardent about the NAM being terrible with run to run consistency for months. I never said the UK was right either, just that it is more tucked in than the GFS...it looks in between the 12z GFS and the 00z ECMWF in terms of position to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anyone still paying attention to the GFS? The Saturday night clipper looks a little tastier than previously. It also starts out very moist at the end of the NAM at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LOL...heavy snow during the GTG per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Does any guidance warrant D-3 nw of BOS that close in? Maybe he is sniffing something out with this or feeling it in his gut? "At this stage, I would be more surprised if a major snowfall materializes than if it misses Boston entirely." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Forgot the surface for the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 white lines are the GFS, colors the UK The UK has more amplitude....and is more tucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anyone still paying attention to the GFS? The Saturday night clipper looks a little tastier than previously. It also starts out very moist at the end of the NAM at 12z. That's twice we agreed. You coming Saturday? I can drive if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 "At this stage, I would be more surprised if a major snowfall materializes than if it misses Boston entirely." He's clearly extrapolating the GFS idea that the heaviest stays offshore but WITH mixing issues as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ughh whatever dude. I guess I can't mess around with you at all or else you get ****ty. You've been ardent about the NAM being terrible with run to run consistency for months. I never said the UK was right either, just that it is more tucked in than the GFS...it looks in between the 12z GFS and the 00z ECMWF in terms of position to me. Yes agreed...its not quite as amped up as the 00z Euro but its definitely more robust than the 12z GFS....he just proved it by overlaying the height field...you can see how the ridging to the east of the 5h low S of sne gets ripped NW into SNE on the Ukie and it doesn't on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Burbank is going D-3 NW of Boston and 3-6 in the city. :axe: I honestly have no idea what goes through his head. How some people can call him a good met is beyond me. D-3 for my area would really stink with a storm of this magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Burbank is going D-3 NW of Boston and 3-6 in the city. :axe: I honestly have no idea what goes through his head. How some people can call him a good met is beyond me. Someone told me he had it OTS the other day. I think he's just being consistent (although I bet he wishes he wasn't now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 white lines are the GFS, colors the UK 5400m height line at 5h is over ORH on the Ukie and not even reaching your house on the GFS...Ukie is more amped which is why it has precip much further W than the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 D-3 for my area would really stink with a storm of this magnitude. Don't worry. It makes absolutely no sense and his reasoning is crude at best. "Here’s the deal. The precise path of the potent southern stream vorticity center is paramount to accurately forecasting how this is all going to shake out. The amazing continuity displayed by the normally reliable European model is creating consternation because it still is advertising a major snowfall closer to a foot plus. I am really torn because I am typically a faithful supporter of the Euro but I suspect that kicking from the northern stream is going to force the southern feature south of New England. With that said, an axis of lift does lift across the region tomorrow night and this matches up with the extrapolation of the moisture package. Consequently, at this time, I am sticking with my few to several inches of snowfall from this past weekend’s thinking. Specifically, I project 3 to 6 inches in the Boston area into southern Worcester County with 3 inches down to a dusting extending across northern MA into southern NH. On the flip side, there should be a strip of 6″ up to 8 or 9″ over much of Plymouth County into Bristol County into Rhode Island with a ribbon of 3-6″ across Cape Cod Canal onto the South Shore down to 1-3″ on the Cape after the rain turns back to snow there. A period of moderate to heavy snow is possible tomorrow night then it is a done deal and gone by dawn or just after. At this stage, I would be more surprised if a major snowfall materializes than if it misses Boston entirely." How are people supposed to plan when WHDH says 10-15 for SNH and Burbank has a dusting??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm starting to care less about what actually happens with the storm, and more interested in the model war. We're between 30 and 36 hours before the snow *potentially* overspreads New England, and there is considerable uncertainty of what to expect (mostly north and west of ORH). The synoptic differences are rather small but lend to significant differences in impact obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 "At this stage, I would be more surprised if a major snowfall materializes than if it misses Boston entirely." Are those your words or Burbanks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ughh whatever dude. I guess I can't mess around with you at all or else you get ****ty. You've been ardent about the NAM being terrible with run to run consistency for months. I never said the UK was right either, just that it is more tucked in than the GFS...it looks in between the 12z GFS and the 00z ECMWF in terms of position to me. Huh? I'm pointing out you are accusing me of doing the same thing you just did. Chill a bit, past performance doesn't dictate future results. The UK may be nailing it, who knows. All I'm saying is it's a reach to say the UK is dramatically different than the GFS. Dramatically more amped than the NAM sure... (surface low is in almost the same spot though) The GFS went east of the 0z run. I'm just mainly trying to figure out how some were figuring that's a positive trend towards the Euro. In turn, when the UK and GFS are pretty darn close for a 42 hour global scheme....I'm just wondering how we take away from one or the other at this point. Waiting for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Are those your words or Burbanks? Burbanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That clipper looks nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's twice we agreed. You coming Saturday? I can drive if you want. I'm afraid I'm hosting some old friends from out of town this weekend; else I'd take you up on that offer. Anyhow, I love systems like what's depicted for Saturday. If it pans out like that, it'd have overachiever written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Pretty amazing how far south this current light snowfall trended over the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Enjoying a nice advisory level event here, nice CF enhancement with radar underestimating the fall here. Just checking in after some cleanup, all systems go eh? Sat looks awesome, said it last night. I want a pic of the legend Jerry staring at the banks in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DavisStraight, on 25 January 2011 - 11:22 AM, said:Are those your words or Burbanks?Burbanks Well, he either scores a coup or had egg on his face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Huh? I'm pointing out you are accusing me of doing the same thing you just did. Chill a bit, past performance doesn't dictate future results. The UK may be nailing it, who knows. All I'm saying is it's a reach to say the UK is dramatically different than the GFS. Dramatically more amped than the NAM sure... (surface low is in almost the same spot though) The GFS went east of the 0z run. I'm just mainly trying to figure out how some were figuring that's a positive trend towards the Euro. In turn, when the UK and GFS are pretty darn close for a 42 hour global scheme....I'm just wondering how we take away from one or the other at this point. Waiting for the Euro. of course it is...because no one said that It is more tucked in at 36 hours than the GFS...in between the GFS and ECMWF. The maps you showed actually said as such. Past performance does give more confidence in future results in the modeling world...this is not a lawyer commercial lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anyone still paying attention to the GFS? The Saturday night clipper looks a little tastier than previously. It also starts out very moist at the end of the NAM at 12z. You mean this? Since 20" looks sort ot off the table from this storm, but this could push us close to the 1/31 record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Pretty amazing how far south this current light snowfall trended over the last few days. Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That clipper looks nice! Looks like a nice 3-6" snowstorm perhaps lollies to 8?http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p36_114m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That clipper looks nice! wow yeah...that's alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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