Time for the Weenie Snowfall Precition maps (1/26-1/27)

[Confuzzled]

First call for me and a final call guestimate will be given after the 12z maps update today... I'm liking all snow on this...

It is Connecticentric but you can extend the lines towards your own regions. Below is the 00z qpf summary for NE with CT totals.

Snow beginning late Wednesday afternoon, and getting heavier into the evening and overnight into Thursday. I generally expect qpf to range from 0.4 in the NW hills to 1” in SE CT and snowfall amounts to go from lowest in the NW hills to maximal values in SE CT. I also expect all snow for most of CT based upon the soundings and 2m temps. Granted the Temps are close to 0c in much of the profile I do not expect great snow ratios. Should be a heavy, wet snow with temperatures just around and slightly below freezing.

I am ignoring the isolated thickness lines (1000-750, 1000-500, 1000-850 and 850-700) indicating sleet and freezing rain since the soundings in Bufkit andTemps of the various layers indicate a DEEP isothermal layer below freezing but near 0c ( GFS, SREF AND NAM in Bufkit and other model height Ts). This is skewing the height values so snow is possible and likely at higher than normal thickness values IMO.

SPECIFIC MODELS:

00z Euro HUGE AMOUNTS OF QPF, SFC above FRZ Hr 42, 0c isotherm bisects CT W to NE at 48 and same @ Hr 54. At h60 0c isotherm moves south off coast. Pcp falling hrs 48-66 with 48-60 being the strongest. 2840 line on 1000-700mb is good at 48hr (rides coast) but bisects CT from SW to NE at 54 but optimal at 60 and beyond. The 1300 line on the 1000-850mb thickness becomes optimal after hr 54. So the euro just has some WAA over southern CT for the first half of the storm leading to wet snow/rain. 925mb temps and 850 temps are a few degrees below freezing so there only seems to be a shallow surface layer of warm temps which might not be deep or strong enough to melt the falling snow except on the shoreline. EURO looks like all snow.

00z nam all snow based on projected SfcTs, observed Bufkit soundings and Thickness heights at the following levels: 1000-700mb --> Snow 1000-850mb --> Snow 850-700mb --> Snow. It does get warm(close to 0c but below freezing) at one level which is not great for ratios but still all snow. 06z NAM Update Appears to flip flop again and go OTS, very little PCP for CT if any…Dismissing entirely as an extremely fickle outlier. The 03z sref trended SE as did the 06zRgem but not enough to justify this. If the morning models jump on a whole lot of busting will occur and weenie suicides.

00z gfs all snow by hour 54 (06z Thursday) based on projected SfcT and Thickeness heights at the following levels: 1000-700mb --> Snow 1000-850mb --> Snow. The 850-700mb thickness indicates a warm layer at 48 hours changing to snow at 54. The warm layer was confirmed via bufkit but the profile indicates a DEEP Isothermal layer below freezing that is impacting the thickness heights. Thus ALL SNOW.

21z SREFS all below frozen according to projected SFCTs and Ts at H85 and H7. The 1000-850mb thickness height is a concern for half of CT (bisecting the from SW tip to NE tip) at hour 54(3z Thursday) but again, like the GFS and NAM a DEEP isothermal layer exists thus indicating snow at higher than normal thicknesses Though below freezing all the way to the surface, IPs are predicted for BDL. A lack of saturation in the upper levels is results in no Ice Nuclei at hr 47+. GON starts off as ZR for a few hours and quickly changes to rain. BDR is SN/ZR/RA with an isothermal layer near 0c for the majority of the event but changes to heavy snow the last few hours. 03z Update No noticeable change…all snow but track and heaviest QPF looks slightly SE of 21z run..

UKIE 00z has an intensifying LPS (985mb off the cape) that appears to track just over the 40.70 BM. At hr 48 and hr 60 forecasted 2m Tmps are below freezing and so are the 850mb temps.

CMC GGEM/RGEM 00z Track looks good but there are some 2m sfc T concerns hrs 42 and 45… for Southern portions of CT. The SE portion of the state, especially near the shore could see some rain. 850mb Temps are well below 0c so the question becomes is that slightly above freezing surface layer deep enough to melt the falling snow and how will the wetbulb effect come into play. Hopefully the RGEM (and other HIRES models coming into range) resolves this issues with the 12z run.