chazman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Guessing WWA for NYC and Philly going up later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Why do you think you change over all the way back in Reading? Soundings say all snow back to you. It seems like a split between NOAA and Accuweather on this one. WFMZ out of Allentown is only calling for 3-6 inches and even 1-3 in southern Berks. I assummed that mixing would be involved. NWS seems to be a bit more liberal in snowfall estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 <br />Guessing WWA for NYC and Philly going up later today?<br /><br /><br /><br />Probably watches if the 12z suite is anything like the 0z suite was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It seems like a split between NOAA and Accuweather on this one. WFMZ out of Allentown is only calling for 3-6 inches and even 1-3 in southern Berks. I assummed that mixing would be involved. NWS seems to be a bit more liberal in snowfall estimates. Light to moderate snow in Millburn now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NYC TV mets calling for rain tomorrow with a chance of a couple of inches of snow tomorrow night, watching models for 6 days is painful, don't do it...not this winter at least, off to work Everyone is awaiting 12z guidance. You'll see plenty of activity and updates early this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Everyone is awaiting 12z guidance. You'll see plenty of activity and updates early this afternoon. Yep, especially for the City on east and coastal sections, it's important to wait just in case 12z comes in with any drastic changes in QPF and Temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Everyone is awaiting 12z guidance. You'll see plenty of activity and updates early this afternoon. Will need to be near perfect combo of elements in later modeling for confidence of significant snowfalls on the coastal plain to be reflected in NWS forecasts. A track further west would bring additional warming; track east would reduce qpf. Can happen but marginal situation with a capital M. Somewhat easier forecast further inland, though certainly not without quesions there also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yep, especially for the City on east and coastal sections, it's important to wait just in case 12z comes in with any drastic changes in QPF and Temps. I don't expect there to be big changes but then again with some of the changes we've had this year it would not surprise me to see the NAM and GFS join the Euro on QPF or everything go east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Latest Wxsim with 6z guidance for NW Philly burbs Light mix during day tomorrow to Heavy snow toward rush hour snow ending late at night Total snowfall 4 to 6 Currently Light Snow Temp 23.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Will need to be near perfect combo of elements in later modeling for confidence of significant snowfalls on the coastal plain to be reflected in NWS forecasts. A track further west would bring additional warming; track east would reduce qpf. Can happen but marginal situation with a capital M. Somewhat easier forecast further inland, though certainly not without quesions there also. This is a spot on post. I'm not sure it's even possible for the coastal plain to thread the needle so well that they get to double digits out of this from PHL to NYC and points south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sigh..... went to bed last night after the euro run with visions of snow and wsw dancing in my head now looks like all the 6z runs are bad for the phila area? Did not read every post but doesn't look promising now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sigh..... went to bed last night after the euro run with visions of snow and wsw dancing in my head now looks like all the 6z runs are bad for the phila area? Did not read every post but doesn't look promising now? FWIW, I never look at the 06z runs of the NAM/GFS. They routinely back off of precip and take a southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't think there will be any plain rain in Central Park - but probably a few hours of rain or mix at JFK. NYC TV mets calling for rain tomorrow with a chance of a couple of inches of snow tomorrow night, watching models for 6 days is painful, don't do it...not this winter at least, off to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sigh..... went to bed last night after the euro run with visions of snow and wsw dancing in my head now looks like all the 6z runs are bad for the phila area? Did not read every post but doesn't look promising now? nam was. gfs drier but still decent snows phl - nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh well on the 6z suite....now we wait for the 12z runs with the recon data. Will find out if the 6z was the start of a trend east or if it was a burp.....amazing with the amount of inconsistancy this yr on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't think there will be any plain rain in Central Park - but probably a few hours of rain or mix at JFK. I gotta agree. Looking at this from an outsider prospective up here in KLEB, I really don't this lack of enthusiasm for the NYC crowd. The SREF's have a pretty high prob for at least 4 the Euro kicks so much behind it's not funny, and the 0z GFS was freakin awesome. Heck even in the 6z GFS wasn't terrible. I guess I'm perplexed. I get it's a thread the needle sort of setup, but to me it looks like a needle will not only be thread, a freakin sweater will be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I gotta agree. Looking at this from an outsider prospective up here in KLEB, I really don't this lack of enthusiasm for the NYC crowd. The SREF's have a pretty high prob for at least 4 the Euro kicks so much behind it's not funny, and the 0z GFS was freakin awesome. Heck even in the 6z GFS wasn't terrible. I guess I'm perplexed. I get it's a thread the needle sort of setup, but to me it looks like a needle will not only be thread, a freakin sweater will be made. Quick look at the WV loop has a classic presentation with mid level jet cutting through this which is going to enhance the CCB and deform. Convection over the gulf probably playing havoc with the 6z runs without RAOB however this can still scrape. 12Z runs today with the recon and raobs should minimize the convective feedback. However, getting the precip up to the nyc metro is one thing, maknig it frozen is another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 <br />I gotta agree. Looking at this from an outsider prospective up here in KLEB, I really don't this lack of enthusiasm for the NYC crowd. The SREF's have a pretty high prob for at least 4 the Euro kicks so much behind it's not funny, and the 0z GFS was freakin awesome. Heck even in the 6z GFS wasn't terrible.<br /><br />I guess I'm perplexed. I get it's a thread the needle sort of setup, but to me it looks like a needle will not only be thread, a freakin sweater will be made.<br /><br /><br /><br />Did you hit -20 in Hanover the other night? God, I'm jealous. I used to have to go to drill at 8am in the winter when it was 20 below in 03-04 and my ****ing hair would freeze so hard that I thought you could break it with a punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> Did you hit -20 in Hanover the other night? God, I'm jealous. I used to have to go to drill at 8am in the winter when it was 20 below in 03-04 and my ****ing hair would freeze so hard that I thought you could break it with a punch. The airport hit -28. My nostrils froze on the way to class... and that was at 145 in the afternoon. And as for the poster above, sure things could go south... I just don't think they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Glenn's video blog.. http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Glenns_Webcast_Jan_24_Philadelphia-114507359.html doesn't seem to pumped for a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 A storm that starts as rain but changed to wet snow makes me think of March 1st 1968...rain started in the afternoon of 2/29...It quickly mixed with snow and became all snow during the late evening...Snow continued until day break 3/1...6-8" of wet snow fell...Over an inch of precipitation with that storm...I hope this storm is as good as that was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 People are going to be caught off guard if this storm is indeed a snowstorm. All my co-workers yesterday think it's going to be a rain event because of the media. I know they are playing it conservative but at least alert the public about a possible snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 People are going to be caught off guard if this storm is indeed a snowstorm. All my co-workers yesterday think it's going to be a rain event because of the media I know they are playing it conservative but at least alert the public about a possible snowstorm. Agreed. Same at my work. Especially considering the preoponderance of evidence, especially from HPC who has sided with the Euro, that there will be substantial snows in the big cities. So afraid to pull the trigger this year given the last minute twists and turns --- but what is more important --- being right or giving ample warning in the face of a potential dangerous situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 12Z data today will include the dropsonde reports from the special aircraft fleet down in the GOM. We seem to already have a fairly decent consensus but now we should be able to really hone in on the CCB setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hi Bucks I would say Philly area folks have had quite a run also... Total snowfall here in the nearby philly burbs over the last 13 mos = 109.2" of snow...not too shabby! Paul www.chescowx.com old adige that the chase is better than the catch, while nothing beats snow actually falling pre storm model mania & weenie radar hallucinations are nearly half the fun, nothing should be painful with regard to snow & NYC, you guys have had a tremendous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSeNJ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That was from early Monday. Glenn seemed optimistic on Monday night. Glenn's video blog.. http://www.nbcphilad...-114507359.html doesn't seem to pumped for a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lemme throw another analog out there- I don't remember how this looked meteorologically, but 3/22/1998 had heavy CCB and backlash snow with dynamic cooling, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not sure about being caught off guard. The primary event is more than 24hrs away..........so if watches go up this afternoon......nothing wrong with that. I would hold off on anything north of a 3-6 forecast........at least until the 12z comes in.....but more likely would like to see the trends of 12z and 00z before doing ANYTHING beyond a Watch.......if there is still uncertainty. Weekday storm.....schools close if it is bad.......road crews will be in full force.......businesses operate regardless.....virtual offices rule. I am starting to believe......there is potential but the "glide slope" if you will.... is narrow.......to see the totals which were represented last night here in central coastal NJ. BTW....MT Holly has been playing this perfectly IMO. New Map is right in line for where things are currently!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREF has a 996 just east of the BM. 2m temps are fine for NYC. Looks like .50-.75 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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