tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 06Z UKMET holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Upton too? Do you have the text? BTW, -SN here with a coating on all surfaces...20.8/16 I can't tell if Upton is or not, their AFD has a 410am timestamp but the storm discussion does not seem to have been edited from the one yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I can't tell if Upton is or not, their AFD has a 410am timestamp but the storm discussion does not seem to have been edited from the one yesterday afternoon. It's not... I mean they say "this afternoon"... and we're not 48 hrs from warning criteria snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 gfs having some changes at h5 through 24, no closed low not as amplified, weaker low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 gfs having some changes at h5 through 24, no closed low not as amplified, weaker low. Differences through 30 are pretty minor in the height field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Upton too? Do you have the text? BTW, -SN here with a coating on all surfaces...20.8/16 Seems like Upton doesnt want to pull the trigger. Moderate Snow @ 11* 1.8" of new snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Differences through 30 are pretty minor in the height field. yea...in the end the low is further east and a little drier...still a good hit phl to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Surprised Mt. Holly did not do watches for the PHL/Delco... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here is Mt Holly's text incase noone posted it yet.................... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW...WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS: 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW...WITH A COATING OF ICE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: THE SNOW WILL START WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE COULD BE AFFECTED AS ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLS. THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Surprised Mt. Holly did not do watches for the PHL/Delco... After the 06Z runs of the RGEM/NAM/UKMET/GFS, the uncertainty in all areas is fairly high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 After the 06Z runs of the RGEM/NAM/UKMET/GFS, the uncertainty in all areas is fairly high. Agreed and understood. GFS is East and a lot colder. After last night's fireworks at 0z, perhaps we gently place the pom poms down until 12z runs with more data. It couldn't be THAT easy, could it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 06Z NOGAPS is basically the same as the 06Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 OT.................does anyone know how to set up the 4 letter Metar code for the weather OBS? Most Metars in NJ are only 3 letters. Morris County is MMU. Is that why my OBS comes up blank because I'm only using 3 letters instead of four? What would then be the closest 4 letter OBS to Morris County,NJ? thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 OT.................does anyone know how to set up the 4 letter Metar code for the weather OBS? Most Metars in NJ are only 3 letters. Morris County is MMU. Is that why my OBS comes up blank because I'm only using 3 letters instead of four? What would then be the closest 4 letter OBS to Morris County,NJ? thanks in advance. You have to add "K"...for example, KNYC is Central Park.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oddly enough, the colder GFS run could extend WSW South and East into NJ if they put alot of stock in it. I'm thinking they'll wait till 12z finishes for any extension of headlines... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am sure most knew i was going to pull this but this is 42 hrs and again....with its progressive bias I think this is an indication that the GFS /NAM/GGEM are still not handling things well. ECM /UK are the only two models that are further west then the Nogaps...and the ecm means looked pretty amped up for a means... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am sure most knew i was going to pull this but this is 42 hrs and again....with its progressive bias I think this is an indication that the GFS /NAM/GGEM are still not handling things well. ECM /UK are the only two models that are further west then the Nogaps...and the ecm means looked pretty amped up for a means... The models at 06Z are exhibiting characteristics of severe convective feedback issues....I don't think we will see much variation from the 00Z tracks but it makes forecasters cautious regardless....its not just the track but the temps with this event to an extent too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The models at 06Z are exhibiting characteristics of severe convective feedback issues....I don't think we will see much variation from the 00Z tracks but it makes forecasters cautious regardless....its not just the track but the temps with this event to an extent too. I am not sure...while i agree its probably feedback issues...even models such as the 00z NAM were too far east.. Heck for that matter so was the 00z GGEM... There is actually not complete agreement with the system and you have the UK/ ECM much more west then either of the rest of the guidance & i believe that actually is the correct way to go with this system...apparently HPC thinks so as well.. Even the GFS is further east then that position ... So i think the GFS/NAM/GGEM will come back west...at this range its hard to go against the ECM IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am not sure...while i agree its probably feedback issues...even models such as the 00z NAM were too far east.. Heck for that matter so was the 00z GGEM... There is actually not complete agreement with the system and you have the UK/ ECM much more west then either of the rest of the guidance & i believe that actually is the correct way to go with this system...apparently HPC thinks so as well.. Even the GFS is further east then that position ... So i think the GFS/NAM/GGEM will come back west...at this range its hard to go against the ECM IMO I agree that this system is still tracking inside the benchmark, and if the Euro was right on its QPF at 00Z there are gonna be some surprised people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Upton does go watch for northern areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 6z gfs ens mean takes the low just east of hse then about 150 miles east of lewes then looks just south of the bm accum precip is .75-1 for the cities and immediate burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 6z gfs ens mean takes the low just east of hse then about 150 miles east of lewes then looks just south of the bm accum precip is .75-1 for the cities and immediate burbs It moved the fringe areas a smidge south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Is there any possibility that the gradient won't be as tight as all the models show or is it wishcasting to even think that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It always seems to be the off-hour runs of the GFS/NAM that have these issues. Any explanation for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Is there any possibility that the gradient won't be as tight as all the models show or is it wishcasting to even think that? Not wishcasting, per say. There is a possibility that the gradient won't be that tight, but it would go against most of the current modeling. The models have been varied greatly even currently with 24-36 hrs remaining. I wouldn't keep asking though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WSW for places away from the coast....they mentioned they will most likely extend them to all areas after their afternoon update....which I think is the right call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Uy Vey, just woke up to see the 6z NAM and 6z RGEM. Cue the miserly noreaster27 to tell us that 1-3" is the only acceptable call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Elliot Abrams live report this morning for Philly: snow / rain starting around daybreak south of the city, changing to rain by afternoon, high 38 Rain changing back to snow late afternoon / early evening accumulating 2-4" no mention of the watches immediately north of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow...suprised to see the watches in my area (Berks county) Since the ground and pavements are frozen solid at this point is icing going to be a major issue even if we have a changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow...suprised to see the watches in my area (Berks county) Since the ground and pavements are frozen solid at this point is icing going to be a major issue even if we have a changeover? Why do you think you change over all the way back in Reading? Soundings say all snow back to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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