ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro ensemble mean tracks the low just inside the BM...it looks pretty similar to the OP...it does have the 0C 850 line cutting through NYC at 48h bending back to about Lancaster PA but then it rapidly collapses SE after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sounds like one of those runs that you just warned us about Like clockwork. It's still trying to get the UVV's going over the M/A at 39 hrs...we will see. But it's definitely not as amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro ensemble mean tracks the low just inside the BM...it looks pretty similar to the OP...it does have the 0C 850 line cutting through NYC at 48h bending back to about Lancaster PA but then it rapidly collapses SE after that. Exciting trend when compared to the 12z ensembles...the 0c 850 line dropped southeast a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro ensemble mean tracks the low just inside the BM...it looks pretty similar to the OP...it does have the 0C 850 line cutting through NYC at 48h bending back to about Lancaster PA but then it rapidly collapses SE after that. Do you have QPF data for that? As robust as the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 That run was even more craptastic than I thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i remember the 6z nam for the 2/10/10 event shoved all precip well offshore the day before the storm. i managed to get 16" anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like a NAM junk run. The upper level PV max looks nothing like any other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That run was even more craptastic than I thought it would be. Yeah lol. No good hopefully its just the expected screwy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Where is atownwxwatcher to tell us the 06z NOGAPS and every one of it's ensembles have gone east as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 what is causing the strung out lows on the nam runs? euro and gfs have a more closed and organized low off the east coast, and the nam keeps trying to elongate it east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 what is causing the strung out lows on the nam runs? euro and gfs have a more closed and organized low off the east coast, and the nam keeps trying to elongate it east.. Exactly what I was looking at. The NAM's progression and development of the PV max from 30-42 hrs really makes little to no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 what is causing the strung out lows on the nam runs? euro and gfs have a more closed and organized low off the east coast, and the nam keeps trying to elongate it east.. Convective feedback most likely...the NAM has had problems at times all winter on systems off the Mid-Atlantic and SE Coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Where is atownwxwatcher to tell us the 06z NOGAPS and every one of it's ensembles have gone east as well? 6 Z NOgaps does not run until after the 6 Z GFS starts ! And FYI at 00z it was more W then the NAM and the same spot as the GFS.... and the ECM came in further west at 48 hrs along with the UK compared to the NOGAPS (which it should).... So GFS will come more west and so will the NAM and the GGEM ..of that I have no doubt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Exactly what I was looking at. The NAM's progression and development of the PV max from 30-42 hrs really makes little to no sense. yeah, it has a qpf bomb off shore and it almost looks like the nam wants to lure the low east towards it while trying to hold other energy back..Classic nam feedback issues imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREF's are a tick drier but are clearly being skewed by the ETA members, which for some reason have a bunch of turds. Most of the ARW and NMM solutions are still big hits, along with a handful of RSM members..which is all I really need to see. None of the ARW or NMM members look remotely like the OP NAM at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 fwiw the 0z nam buffkit is phl 18.3 nyc 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 fwiw the 0z nam buffkit is phl 18.3 nyc 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW the 00Z GFS suggests Suffolk County LI and coastal SE CT would likely meet blizzard criteria with sustained winds around 27-30 kt for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My favorite part of the 06Z NAM is 36 hours when the closed 500 vort is centered over Greenville SC and the surface low is east of Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My favorite part of the 06Z NAM is 36 hours when the closed 500 vort is centered over Greenville SC and the surface low is east of Norfolk. Ya that is pretty good stuff. 6Z RGEM coming out lets see if it holds course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ECM means @ 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NWS Albany has just issued winter storm watches for NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ECM means @ 48 Looks a tick west of Op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM is more amplified than the NAM through 24 hours already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Gotta hit the sack for the night...see you guys bright and early in a few hours. Wishing you all feet and feet of heavy plastering snow :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oops, one last thing URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 406 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.. NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-069-252100- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0003.110126T1400Z-110127T1200Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS- LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING... ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 406 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW...WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS: 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW...WITH A COATING OF ICE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: THE SNOW WILL START WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE COULD BE AFFECTED AS ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLS. THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ HAYES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 06Z RGEM doesn't look nearly as promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 06Z RGEM doesn't look nearly as promising. It has that same bizaare ENE-WSW orientation to the QPF field the NAM has wanted to show at times as opposed to the more classic SSW-NNE orientation more typical of a storm tracking NEward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 winter storm watches going up as we speak. Upton too? Do you have the text? BTW, -SN here with a coating on all surfaces...20.8/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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