tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What do you mean when you say "850s reach .4 after a period of .32"? Does that mean 1.02" is snow? he means .32 falls before the temps get to 0 or above at 850 then it goes above before falling back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 no...it seems wind top off around 15-20 sustained at most, maybe some gusts to 25. Not sure it will be that low. I think some areas will gust 35-40mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks. That means a brief changeover to rain/sleet before going back to snow? yes rain or mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 meanwhile back at the ranch some flurries and showers movin in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Does the Euro gives totals for smaller airports like NEL (Naec Airport), home of the Hindenburg disaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is unbelievable. If it CAN snow this winter, it WILL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Does the Euro gives totals for smaller airports like NEL (Naec Airport), home of the Hindenburg disaster? WED 18Z 26-JAN 3.3 -0.1 1012 93 100 0.27 556 546 THU 00Z 27-JAN 2.7 2.9 1001 93 98 0.38 549 548 THU 06Z 27-JAN 1.6 -3.0 993 93 91 0.52 537 543 THU 12Z 27-JAN 1.7 -3.2 1000 80 80 0.61 538 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 that has been the same map they havent changed it. Solid numbers, but they are outdated. Going by the latest Euro QPF range, even those numbers are on the low end. You can add another 5" across the board to those numbers if things stand the way they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Overnight crew, show starts now. SREFs in just over 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 overnight crew happy to be here....i'm guessing WSW'ches have to be going up soon, it is already kind of late in the game (not being critical, this storm has been tough) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Doesn't get much nicer than this. 03z SREFs. 850 0c line is off the coast at this time frame and doesn't get north of Staten Island...barely scrapes the south shore (earlier frames). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 overnight crew happy to be here....i'm guessing WSW'ches have to be going up soon, it is already kind of late in the game (not being critical, this storm has been tough) well the main show isnt till late wed so they can issue them this aft, but they may go with this mornings shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here's the warmest frame as far as H85 temps are concerned. About 25-50 miles further south and colder than 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 well the main show isnt till late wed so they can issue them this aft, but they may go with this mornings shift. i should have been clearer, i meant watches not warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 well the main show isnt till late wed so they can issue them this aft, but they may go with this mornings shift. The fact all the models agree I could see them going this morning, if there was still 1-2 stragglers, especially if it was the Euro, NAM, or GFS I could see them waiting til the 12Z models to ensure nothing changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbutl Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'll take it! Just curious, have the map for the 4"/12" probabilities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREFs look great! NAM soon. with a little rough math it seems 0.7+ for the NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 with a little rough math it seems 0.7+ for the NYC metro Yeah, and for SREFs thats great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM likes to pull a dud every once and a while on an off hour run before the storm system...just a bit of a warning to avoid the panic that might ensue if it does do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, and for SREFs thats great! Yeah, and when it comes to the SREFs I use the multiplication rule of x2. Take that 0.7 and times it by 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM likes to pull a dud every once and a while on an off hour run before the storm system...just a bit of a warning to avoid the panic that might ensue if it does do that. It almost always does something wierd, the tendencies are for the 18Z runs to have wild QPF and the 06Z runs to be dry and suppressed....we're still far out though, I'd anticipate this afternoon's 18 and tomorrow night's 06 would be more likely to do something strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM likes to pull a dud every once and a while on an off hour run before the storm system...just a bit of a warning to avoid the panic that might ensue if it does do that. Agree, good warning for those who aren't familiar with the Nam off hour hipcups. I think though this time around we might be in for a pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Agree, good warning for those who aren't familiar with the Nam off hour hipcups. I think though this time around we might be in for a pleasant surprise. The off hour NAM runs are like the coach who comes into the dressing room after a team wins a huge game 1 of a series and yells out "Guys! Its a 7 game series!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 The SREF ticked south and east so it wouldn't surprise me if the NAM followed suit...it likes to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 looking good so far through hr 24, precip starting to enter southern burbs of dc...cold air already entrenched into the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Definitely south and east of 00z through 33 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Big differences aloft, too, IRT the H5 low..barely closed off and the height field is less amplified up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Big differences aloft, too, IRT the H5 low..barely closed off and the height field is less amplified up the east coast. Sounds like one of those runs that you just warned us about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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