isnice Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Surface low is 984mb inside the Benchmark SE of LI at 54 hrs. 850 line runs through eastern Suffolk Co WOW! As my parents say, "Who woulda thunk it?" a couple days ago when most guidance was inland? Central and Northern NJ, as well as southeast New York State stay all snow on the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LI gets plastered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 66 storm is out of the area qpf nyc 1.75 fwn 1-1.25 phl 1.5 acy 1.8 balt 1.5 dc 1.6 hazleton .5 abe 1-1.25 avp .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Blizzard Watches at 4am???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 66 storm is out of the area qpf nyc 1.75 fwn 1-1.25 phl 1.5 acy 1.8 balt 1.5 dc 1.6 hazleton .5 abe 1-1.25 avp .25-.5 most of that is snow, correct??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 60 sub 984 about 50-75 miles west of ack .25-.5 lewes to dov to ilg to villanova to ewing to fwn .5-.75 holmdel to nyc to nw ct .75-1 all of li except nyc area seems like 1.25" for philly on this on SV maps...?? sorry, see it now.. your doing the 6hr total.. this is through 66 totals.. maybe 1.5.. hard to read .. such a tight gradient within the blues on the map.. AC south and about 20 miles inland 1.75" Hard to tell how much is frozen with these qpf totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Blizzard Watches at 4am???? No OKX will have to put up Flood Watches based on their earlier AFD, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Blizzard Watches at 4am???? I would not want to be on duty tonight at Mount Holly. I suspect WSW. Bust potential is very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 most of that is snow, correct??? nyc prob has some contamination with mixing but prob 90 percent is snow going off 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 66 storm is out of the area qpf nyc 1.75 fwn 1-1.25 phl 1.5 acy 1.8 balt 1.5 dc 1.6 hazleton .5 abe 1-1.25 avp .25-.5 TTN the same as PHL? 1.5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not all of that is snow though, right? Or is it? I mean, that would be nuts. omg.. based solely on 850's I think NYC stays below 0...so unless the surface is scorching it'd probably be snow...early on there isn't much precip anyway, so at most 0.2-0.3 is lost to sleet/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 most of that is snow, correct??? You're going to have some wasted to poor ratios...initial warm layer..etc..but there's probably 1+" QPF of legit poundage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 if the mm5 Euro is correct, people in the NYC metro area will not be very prepared for whats going to happen. In all seriousness, this is setting up a whole host of possibilities > roofs immediately to flooding in the coming weeks. Snow pack here in N Fairfield county is bordering on ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is a very impressive fun for DC-NYC area, and if this were to occur, what makes it even more impressive is the fact we have little blocking on Greenland.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 nyc prob has some contamination with mixing but prob 90 percent is snow going off 850s TTN? for Ray and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 seems like 1.25" for philly on this on SV maps...?? sorry, see it now.. your doing the 6hr total.. this is through 66 totals.. maybe 1.5.. hard to read .. such a tight gradient within the blues on the map.. AC south and about 20 miles inland 1.75" Hard to tell how much is frozen with these qpf totals yes bri 1.5 kisses phl....i would assume about 80 percent of that is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 nyc prob has some contamination with mixing but prob 90 percent is snow going off 850s thanks Tom. unbelievable turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 As has become tradition this winter season...it is time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 TTN? for Ray and me 1.5-1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 TTN? for Ray and me Probably 85% snow. Maybe a hair less or more depending on exact mid level warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 nyc prob has some contamination with mixing but prob 90 percent is snow going off 850s That is still a foot even at a conservative 8-1 snow ratio. Now all we need is all the 0z guidance to hold serve for 12z and 0z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is a legit MECS for most of I-95 on the Euro. Mother of God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is a very impressive fun for DC-NYC area, and if this were to occur, what makes it even more impressive is the fact we have little blocking on Greenland.. this has been the season of why the hell not in terms of how the winter is going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Notice how the MM5 elongates the pressure field to the NE. That keeps sfc winds from the NNE over NJ/NYC/LI. The elongation to the NE has been a critical feature in holding in the cold air in past KU storms that didn't have much of a high to the north. Wow, and in the most encouraging image of the night..the MM5 is just pounding away. This is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yes bri 1.5 kisses phl....i would assume about 75 percent of that is snow maybe 80 Tom, ISP or OKX, if you could? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is a very impressive fun for DC-NYC area, and if this were to occur, what makes it even more impressive is the fact we have little blocking on Greenland.. The kicker to the west and the progressive La Nina pattern makes it all happen...this would go inland during an El Nino or probably even a neutral ENSO setup...also if it occurred a day or two earlier or later since earlier the high would have caused a SE gradient and later the "kicker" may have phased with it and pulled it inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here's my latest thoughts on this one, for those interested. Not making snowfall calls until this afternoon at the earliest, probably tonight. I would hate to be forced to make storm total predictions at this point, which at many stations is exactly what meteorologists are FORCED to do. Completely disagree with that. http://hammerweather.blogspot.com/2011/01/...chance-for.html Have a great night! Spending the day with the girlfriend before a couple days of paying more attention to the weather - Matt Hammer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The kicker to the west and the progressive La Nina pattern makes it all happen...this would go inland during an El Nino or probably even a neutral ENSO setup...also if it occurred a day or two earlier or later since earlier the high would have caused a SE gradient and later the "kicker" may have phased with it and pulled it inland. Based off this post, seems like everything is just timing up perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The kicker to the west and the progressive La Nina pattern makes it all happen...this would go inland during an El Nino or probably even a neutral ENSO setup...also if it occurred a day or two earlier or later since earlier the high would have caused a SE gradient and later the "kicker" may have phased with it and pulled it inland. the delicacy of these set-ups makes it kind of eery that things have been playing out how they have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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