fishinfever Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 is there one for 54 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So who exactly do we curse to about being in a moderate/strong La Nina...? I think prospects are good for 6"+ for NYC at this point. I'd give a range of 6-12, with the potential to shift higher should the mesoscale models up amounts like the MM5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The SUNY MM5 bonanza happens in such a short period. Omg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 alright, the euro has init, lets see what dr no does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Aaaaahhhh. Why can't this event be 24 hours from now? Inch and a half liquid as snow=impenetrable glacier until at least St. Patrick's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'd love the suny MM5, although its not exactly dec 26th material. some parts of eastern NJ saw 2-2.5" QPF from that storm, and this model only shows 1.75" at best (comparable to recent EMCWF runs), with paltry ratios coming from the marginally cold 1000-800mb layer. I'd say a max of 18" along the southern half of the NJTurnpike from staten island to about wilmington, DE would fall on this run. That said, its an amazing depiction by a model that has been known for nailing mesoscale bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I would not want to be in the bullseye tonight. We all know that this CCB is going to shift several times 25-75 miles before the event commences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I would not want to be in the bullseye tonight. We all know that this CCB is going to shift several times 25-75 miles before the event commences. It's not like its 3-4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't think anyone posted the clown maps for 00z GFS here is a zoomed in version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 what r the winds like with the storm? Blizzard levels? Far from it. max predicted wind on the models is about 25kts along the beaches, and 15-20kt inland. This storms dropping to only about 992mb, unlike the 978 we saw back in december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 30 has a broad area of sub 1012 low looked to be centered over south central ga ...precip just south of dc...850s are dc to dover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 36 has a sub 1008 centered over central sc....closed h5 low over south central tn... .01-.1 precip edison to ipt on south...850s are balt to miv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One only has to compare the last two runs of the SREF's (which normally are somewhat consistent) which made huge changes in only 6 hrs. It literally went from 8+ in. for Scranton, PA to flurries. We can't take this to the bank until tomorrow nigh, I'm sorry to say. This is especially true in this sort of setup where if you aren't under the CCB, you're screwed (with marginal temps, we are going to need heavy snow to really bring down the surface temps and get anything to stick well on pavement). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 42 has a sub 1004 low over outerbanks just west of hse h5 low has opened up over eastern tn .1-.25 nyc to sce south 850s dulles to phl to ttn to holmdel .25-.5 just south of m/d line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One only has to compare the last two runs of the SREF's (which normally are somewhat consistent) which made huge changes in only 6 hrs. It literally went from 8+ in. for Scranton, PA to flurries. We can't take this to the bank until tomorrow nigh, I'm sorry to say. This is especially true in this sort of setup where if you aren't under the CCB, you're screwed (with marginal temps, we are going to need heavy snow to really bring down the surface temps and get anything to stick well on pavement). I'm pretty sure the fact that this falls at night and that we've been below freezing for days negates the pavement argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 EC DAY 2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut85 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 42 has a sub 1004 low over outerbanks just west of hse h5 low has opened up over eastern tn .1-.25 nyc to sce south 850s dulles to phl to ttn to holmdel .25-.5 just south of m/d line I just want to let you know that I appreciate your pbp's Tombo! You've been a very busy guy the last several weeks doing these 0z Euros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 48 has a sub 996 low about 60 miles east of the tip of delmarva.. .25-.5 hpn to mmu to abe to lns...850s nyc to dyl to just east of balt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just an absolutely epic CCB crushing everybody at 54 hrs from DC right through PHL into NYC and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 60 hours has a .75" in 6 hour liquid band over Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 54 sub 988 low about 125 miles east of toms river captured at h5.. .5-.75 from fredricksburg to dulles to lns to abe to fwn to pouhkeepsie... 850s offshore.. .25-.5 another 50 miles north and west of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Surface low is 984mb inside the Benchmark SE of LI at 54 hrs. 850 line runs through eastern Suffolk Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 60 hours has a .75" in 6 hour liquid band over Long Island yup- we are going to have more snow (further east this time) than we had on Dec 26th....and its gonna be paste.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Dare i say model consensus, rare these days. What a turn of events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 60 sub 984 about 50-75 miles west of ack .25-.5 lewes to dov to ilg to villanova to ewing to fwn .5-.75 holmdel to nyc to nw ct .75-1 all of li except nyc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's much colder than the 12z run...seems to be in line with the NAM or maybe even a toned down/lower resolution version of the MM5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 60 sub 984 about 50-75 miles west of ack .25-.5 lewes to dov to ilg to villanova to ewing to fwn .5-.75 holmdel to nyc to nw ct .75-1 all of li except nyc area that is just in a 6 hour period? HOLY SHNICKIES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Dare i say model consensus, rare these days. What a turn of events.. I was going to say that, but I din't want to jinx anything, and for God sakes no radio shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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