Blizzardo Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NWS Upton currently has 4-8 for Wed. night in Bloomfield so I would think the warnings will pop up at some point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 all of chesco, montgo 4-8".. 1-4 points nw of there.. northrn bucks 4-8". southern bucks 8-12" Philly 8-12".. disturbing trend from the 6z runs and 12z NAM NW of the cities central delaware ,sw NJ jackpot with 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Before people jump off their chairs, etc, etc., remember the NAM has been on the eastern envelope of solutions and this is still over 24 hours out. Models handle deform and banding very poorly. I would consider the area from eastern pa north to se ny over to nw ct down to long island very much in the kill zone for potential heavy deform banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WSW's for PHL/NJ this afternoon? If the 12Z runs confirm what NAM is spitting out, I'd expect WSW for PHL and surrounding 5 counties as well as NJ. Possibly WWA for LV. For the TV mets in this area......egg, meet face. Certianly a BIG step back towards the 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At 10am this thread is being split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is basically the first run in 3 days that gives MDT 0 precip (it MIGHT be on the .1 line but I don't think so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NJ winter rolls on per NAM .. incredible And dropped for Berks north? IMO...signal for 6hr deformation band thump...still there....location of that thump is a bit different on every model and every run since 18z yesterday. It might be agonizing, it doesn't mean much. IIRC the 6z NAM basically lost the whole band SE and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Phl and NYC 6-12" phl closer to 12 NYC closer to 6 but as always the bands seem to set up nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am so much more productive outside of the winter at work. This is such a close call, and the sharp cutoffs are insane. Anyone have a link to the 6z UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 There's actually a small spot of 1.00+ on the NCEP 6-hr map at 42. 8-10" in 6 hours is crazy, given the moisture content and potential winds. Power outages could be a problem too. posted this in the wrong thread ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At 10am this thread is being split. good move. NYc was 4-8, 8-12" borderline on this run.. so say 6-10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Before people jump off their chairs, etc, etc., remember the NAM has been on the eastern envelope of solutions and this is still over 24 hours out. Models handle deform and banding very poorly. I would consider the area from eastern pa north to se ny over to nw ct down to long island very much in the kill zone for potential heavy deform banding. Don't think we are jumping.. its just the 1st 12z run with more to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 meanwhile, although it's not a DC thread, check out what they see. I'm not sure if it's all snow, but its over 1.25" for them. Incredible, since most are downplaying the storm for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Amazing how a few days ago evertyonw believed there would be a wide QPF distribution, but now most of the models have sharp cutoffs. This trend has been going on since the February storms last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Part of the CWA already has a WSW. This is a tricky forecast with a very high bust potential. Please don't call out/insult our fine NWS mets who take time out of their work to post here and share their thoughts with us. It's easy for you to forecast for yourself but they're forecasting for an entire metropolitan area and responsible for millions of people and dollars. Great post! I dislike it when people with no forecasting skill or knowledge write stuff like "what is Mt. Holly thinking - no guidance shows that" or "that TV weatherman is going too conservative with his call" before a storm even hits! Those types of posts should be kept to the banter threads, if they should even be made at all. If you were a broadcast meteorologist reading threads with all sorts of shots taken at you, would you want to make a post? Anyway, like all of you, I can hardly wait to see the rest of the 12 Z model suite. I'm already under a Winter Storm Watch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 don't deform bands have a tendency to set up farther west than forecast, a la 2/11/06? I remember Chesco and NW Bucks getting close to 20" when the forecast had Lower Bucks in the bullseye. not to go off topic but went to bed around 11pm with around 1" then woke up around 6:30am with 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 <br />meanwhile, although it's not a DC thread, check out what they see. I'm not sure if it's all snow, but its over 1.25" for them. Incredible, since most are downplaying the storm for them.<br /><br /><br /><br />It's mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Before people jump off their chairs, etc, etc., remember the NAM has been on the eastern envelope of solutions and this is still over 24 hours out. Models handle deform and banding very poorly. I would consider the area from eastern pa north to se ny over to nw ct down to long island very much in the kill zone for potential heavy deform banding. I agree with 24 hours out, the gradient is still very tough to pin down and they usually become a real-time tracking where the best deform and higher bands setup. The ecm has been consistent ride it. I'm frankly more worried about mixing than missing. But trends are nice i-95 on east.... This time much more widespread. If the nam had its druthers Englishtown NJ looks like a sweet spot (no bias here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Great post! I dislike it when people with no forecasting skill or knowledge write stuff like "what is Mt. Holly thinking - no guidance shows that" or "that TV weatherman is going too conservative with his call" before a storm even hits! Those types of posts should be kept to the banter threads, if they should even be made at all. If you were a broadcast meteorologist reading threads with all sorts of shots taken at you, would you want to make a post? Anyway, like all of you, I can hardly wait to see the rest of the 12 Z model suite. I'm already under a Winter Storm Watch here. I actually misread his post, which is why I yanked mine. I thought he was calling out the NWS, but he said TV mets would have "egg on their face". Which I can agree with. Anyway we can take this to the Weather and TV thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Moderate snow now in Warminster, PA...26F...light accums on all surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Can't blame upton for being conservative here. This is basically a situation that needs the PERFECT solution to yield those bigtime snow totals especially for nonelevated areas. They cannot simply base a forecast on what will happen if a deform band sets up over the area. They have to base it off of meteorological reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 not to go off topic but went to bed around 11pm with around 1" then woke up around 6:30am with 18" I remember that very well. We had to drive down to the OBX that weekend for some business and drive right back. I suggested we postpone due to the snow. I went to bed with around 1" on the ground thinking what a bust...woke up to 16". I can't believe I slpet through that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The12z NAM is taking a step toward a more closed off solution like the other models are showing over it 6z run. 12z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 not to go off topic but went to bed around 11pm with around 1" then woke up around 6:30am with 18" Greatest storm I've experienced. Stayed up for the whole thing, multiple hours of 4"+/hr rates. Ended up with 20.5" here from the greatest deform band known to Honey Brook. Yesterdays guidance said it could happen again but now it seems to have slid east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Moderate snow now in Warminster, PA...26F...light accums on all surfaces. everyone....there is a thread for the current light snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 1.15" raw for KPNE and it's all snow! What's more remarkable? 0.68" in just 3 hours! I can't imagine 6+" in under 3 hours, especially with such a high moisture content. Thank god this isn't scheduled to happen during a rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No way...Berks will do well with this And dropped for Berks north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Mt Holly coming out with more watches at 1115. From new AFD .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ***WATCH EXPANSION INTO NE MD...N DEL AND MUCH OF NJ EXCEPT FAR SOUTH PROBABLE AT 1115 AM PENDING NEW GFS*** PLEASE GIVE US TIME ON THIS. WE ALL SAW THE NEW 12Z NAM WITH HUGE SNOWGROWTH AND QPF AMTS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE NAMS MORE DEFINED 500MB STRUCTURE. COULD BE THUNDER SNOW WED EVE. COLLAB WITH HPC AT 8AM REGARDING MY UNCERTAINTY FURTHER NW IN NE PA AND NW NJ BUT AWAITING ALL THE MODELS BEFORE ANY POSSIBLE TRIM THERE. FOCUS "MAY" BE SHIFTING SEWD 30 MILES. MORE AT 1115 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 For PHL, 1.26" all levels below freezing. Although the surface rises to 31.9 as the precip is starting. 0.75" in 3 hours, 1.02" in 6 hours. For DYL, 0.71" all levels below freezing. 0.39" in 3 hours, 0.64" in 6 hours. For NYC, 0.87" all levels below freezing while precip is falling. 0.85" in 9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.