earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'll tell you what. I initially doubted this storm tremendously given the height pattern and upper air blocking breakdown, but it's becoming clear that this could very well mean business if tonight's model guidance even has a semblance of a clue. I know there were plenty of people calling last weeks storm "mundane" (which it did end up being for most people), but this is the exact opposite of that should it come to fruition. The upper level shortwave is absolutely loaded with tons of vorticity--there's a very favorable baroclinic zone which the surface low's have been developing on all year. It's no coincidence the banding has liked to develop in the same areas. With the cyclone rapidly maturing and the favorable positions of the closed H7/H8/H925 lows which we have seen modeled (with a few bumps and jogs west and east here and there), there is some good support developing for more heavy deformation banding to develop underneath the Cold Conveyor Belt. I would actually favor two areas of deformation that could legitimately make this a big snowstorm. One would be as the surface low initially develops off the coast--probably over West Virgina and in the immediate burbs of DC/BWI. Another should develop as the surface low undergoes rapid intensification along the aforementioned baroclinic zone. This is the big classic "comma-head" development the guidance is trying to key in on this evening. We can see it clearly on the NAM banding graphics which show the 800-600mb frontogenesis. This is a very useful tool for trying to pinpoint where the model guidance is actually trying to put the banding..not where the QPF shows it's heaviest. Regardless the NAM...in agreement with most other models (RGEM/MM5/etc) has the banding developing first near DC (click here for the DC banding image)...and then the big band developing overhead. That image is below. Trying to pinpoint the area this band will sit over is nearly impossible at this range...but it's safe to say that areas like Western LI...Central/Northern NJ..SE NY...SW CT and especially into Southern New England should be on high alert this point...for the potential for another one of those "classic" frontogenically forced bands which have the potential to dump prolific snow amounts in short periods of time. 51 hr banding over PHL (54 hrs is below) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Come on guys. Weather discussion, not bickering. this...also a humble request.... can this thread please please please stay on the topic of the current storm threat? Can 7 day threats, likes and dislikes of tv mets, who is in a snow drought or surplus...go in other threads? thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I loved the "Western LI" line, John. :snowman: I gave up hope on this a few days ago also, but this kind of banding signal and tremendous potential for lift/dynamics as the whole storm consolidates and congeals should be hugely thrilling for all of us at this point. It's almost as if there are "two storms" before it comes together when the dynamics "catch" the surface storm late Weds, but when it all does, BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Man, dynamic CCBs after dynamic CCBs, just can't get better than this. What a turnaround in the forecast guidance, showing barely any initial rain or mix especially the GGEM, and we all know how that looked days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I loved the "Western LI" line, John. :snowman: I gave up hope on this a few days ago also, but this kind of banding signal and tremendous potential for lift/dynamics as the whole storm consolidates and congeals should be hugely thrilling for all of us at this point. It's almost as if there are "two storms" before it comes together when the dynamics "catch" the surface storm late Weds, but when it all does, BOOM. I had to throw you guys in there There's still plenty of bust potential on either side of the ballgame, although I think the mid level temperatures are becoming less of a concern at least during the banding. Most of the models have gotten so much colder the past few runs. My concern right now would be the usual deformation/subsidence and all that--and obviously the progression of the upper level trough/shortwave and the interactions of a few shortwaves which are embedded in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 By the way, if you wanted to check out the 700mb vertical velocities on the national range map, you can see it on twisterdata from tonight's NAM run. This actually gives you a bit of a picture as to how intense the NAM is depicting this thing to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow, and in the most encouraging image of the night..the MM5 is just pounding away. This is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbutl Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I have a lot to look forward to with this storm, at least if the most recent model output is any indication. Being in center Chester county, the storm start (mixing issues) seems to be up in the air (possible start as ZR/IP seems likely, but how quick is the changeover.) But, we also seem to be right in the bulls-eye for snow totals (at least when it comes to the clown maps for the area.) Can't wait to see how this all plays out, after being on the western fringe of the recent major storms. Do we see a foot like recently suggested, how long does the warm air hold, how perfect is the setup for the balance of QPF and frozen precip? Time will tell, but man will I be on the edge of my seat til this gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ARW pretty far NW with the surface through 48 and temp problems with a ton of rain for much of SE PA , VA, DE, E MD although D.C looks like it's about to get hit pretty good with snow. NMM surface low is pretty much in line with the rest of the models, precip is weaker though, but colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow, and in the most encouraging image of the night..the MM5 is just pounding away. This is incredible. 0.455 over NYC in 3 hrs...impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The scary thing Earthlight is that @ 51 hours the Sunymm5 is just getting going. Temps have plummeted, and theres heavy precip from the ULL all the way out to the WVa/Va border. Classic, awesome run. Here is what I mean: Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i'd be cautious with using the high res models past 18-24hrs... didn't really do to well the last system outside that time range.. Just food for though. Awfully quiet for a snow storm potential in here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i'd be cautious with using the high res models past 18-24hrs... didn't really do to well the last system outside that time range.. Just food for though. Awfully quiet for a snow storm potential in here though. For sure...but impressive to see its depiction nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow, and in the most encouraging image of the night..the MM5 is just pounding away. This is incredible. TTN gets pwned at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 All hail God..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I had to throw you guys in there There's still plenty of bust potential on either side of the ballgame, although I think the mid level temperatures are becoming less of a concern at least during the banding. Most of the models have gotten so much colder the past few runs. My concern right now would be the usual deformation/subsidence and all that--and obviously the progression of the upper level trough/shortwave and the interactions of a few shortwaves which are embedded in the flow. It has to develop in time. That's my main concern-that the 700 and 850 features especially, and hopefully 500 close off and really develop the kind of lift and dynamics we need. And obviously the track matters, since there looks to be a huge punch delivered over a fairly consistent swath. We could trend colder at this point, but if the dynamics and lift weaken or trend south, a lot of us will be disappointed anyway. Amazing how this winter continues to deliver though. EPIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i'd be cautious with using the high res models past 18-24hrs... didn't really do to well the lats system outside that time range.. Just food for though. Awfully quiet for a snow storm potential in here.. Waiting for Dr No to say Yes; It is scary when the models are in this much agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That CCB will include banding that will drop 1-2/3" per hour rates. It's literally a 6-8 hour boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The scary thing Earthlight is that @ 51 hours the Sunymm5 is just getting going. Temps have plummeted, and theres heavy precip from the ULL all the way out to the WVa/Va border. Classic, awesome run. Here is what I mean: Uploaded with ImageShack.us I agree there. The heaviest dynamically driven snow is still over NoVA then, and it looks thereafter to consolidate and intensify even more on its way NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Frankly it's remarkable just how much of a shift in guidance we have seen over the past 36 hours. A definitive cold conveyor belt signature is evident on the mesoscale models, along with major backlash snows in what ultimately amounts to a relatively mediocre synoptic setup. For that reason, I'm wary of the high bust potential with a these ingredients at play. I've mentioned already that many models have a tough time with dynamic cooling situations, especially from a cold conveyor belt which is bound to set up a significant deformation band somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I agree there. The heaviest dynamically driven snow is still over NoVA then, and it looks thereafter to consolidate and intensify even more on its way NE. verbatim just looking at hr 51 the mm5's solution would probably be a MECS for at least NYC-BOS and probably PHL as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow, look at the intensity and the gradient even though the SUNY MM5 is extremely suspect at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 INSANE deformation band on Suny MM5 @ 57 hours http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2011012500/images_d1/pcp3.57.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Next thing you know you'll be posting the NOGAPS! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow, look at the intensity and the gradient even though the SUNY MM5 is extremely suspect at this range. & it's not yet over! NYC gets something like 16" this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wrong or not, this is one of the craziest things I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 there is an area in jersey just NE of philly that gets close to or about 1in in 3 hrs...its a really subtle purple shading but its there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 if this verifies- it would be a bigger snow event than dec 26 was around this area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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