jen2swt Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So much for the Plane data helping. Yeah no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_072m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I love how everyone else has watches now and CTP is still sitting on their butts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p48_072m.gif and precip should be even more north of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay.... I've intentionally sat back and watched this thread all morning. Quite humorous if I say so myself. Jaime: Great post, you took my thoughts and expressed them in a way that I never could. Thank you. To the rest of us...again, their is a difference between meteorolgoy and modelogy. (think I just created a new word) The internet can be a wonderful thing, but the ability to access maps and models and such lends itself to giving weenies palpatations every 6 hours. (or less) PLEASE STOP JUMPING WITH EVERY RUN!!!! Pure torture at 10am, happiness and relief at 11am...my God, what would happen if the Euro plays "Dr. No" again at 1pm? I'll be watching. Pass the popcorn, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I love how everyone else has watches now and CTP is still sitting on their butts. IMO they are definitely doing the right thing. Waiting for all 12z data to make any decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just hit the weather button on my scanner for ****s and giggles.........told me 6-8 for Cumberland, Dauphin and Purry Counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_072m.gif That's a nice run! Are the models gonna start their westwardly track now? Be interested what the precip. Will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This storm has everyone on their toes...I think it likes to toy with us.... Haha...I understand what you mean, but when you think about it...the storm hasn't done much of anything - it's those models that have been toying with us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 IMO they are definitely doing the right thing. Waiting for all 12z data to make any decisions. Strongly agree. They wait longer than most offices And to me, there's a good reason for that. And by the way, I think we'll all see snow. I don't care what any particular model says. I felt several days ago this one was coming, and I still do. But again, my caveat...I don't really know much. Just going on years of watching, learning, and my own gut instincts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Discussion: LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES STAY AT OR BELOW NORMALS. LOW TRACKS NOW VERY SIMILAR...BUT UPPER LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND LLVL MOISTURE PROGS DIVERGE LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN NCEP NUMERICAL GUID. DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS FCST TO HOLD OR EVEN GET DRIER BY THE NAM AS THE WINDS GET NE AND NRLY TONIGHT. THIS COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND COULD HALT THE NWRD PROGRESS WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MDLS. SREFS STILL SHOW CONSISTENT TIMING BUT WIDE DIVERGENCE IN QPF FOR THE STORM. EC LOOKS LIKE GFS...SO WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA OF WHEN PRECIP GETS HERE - WHICH STARTS ALONG THE BORDER AT OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE MD BORDER. CONSIDERING A WATCH - BUT NOT QUITE YET. THE FAR SE IS THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET WARNING ACCUMS - BUT SLRS ARE THE THING THAT MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL THERE WRT SF TOTALS. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD FOR THIS UPDATE. A BLEND OF HPC QPF WITH INDIVIDUAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6-8" OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 12Z THUR...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD/PROBABILITIES OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY AND SCENTRAL MTNS BETWEEN THE I-81/I-95 CORRIDORS. LIGHTER AMTS CAN BE EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL RIDGES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUM ANTICIPATED OVER THE NW MTNS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE SNOWFALL...WHICH MAKES FOR A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST. FOR THIS REASON AND PER COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH...DEFERRING TO THE DAYSHIFT TO MAKE THE FINAL CALL. Not shabby I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So much for the Plane data helping. Well the 12z GFS had it...12z NAM did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 IMO they are definitely doing the right thing. Waiting for all 12z data to make any decisions. GFS = WSW RGEM = WSW NAM= umm wtf SREF = WSW UKMET = WSW So idk what's to wait for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well the 12z GFS had it...12z NAM did not. Ah that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Strongly agree. They wait longer than most offices And to me, there's a good reason for that. And by the way, I think we'll all see snow. I don't care what any particular model says. I felt several days ago this one was coming, and I still do. But again, my caveat...I don't really know much. Just going on years of watching, learning, and my own gut instincts. agreed...maybe a mix to start but quickly over to all snow imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 horst's update on the storm should be out before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Strongly agree. They wait longer than most offices And to me, there's a good reason for that. Come on, we have to poke a little fun at our fearless leaders. But I do think Mt Holly's discussions are much better and between them and LWX, they are forecasting for a ton more people than CTP is. Why CTP is always last to issue is beyond me. For me personally, who cares because I follow these storms by the minute but would the general public be better served with as much notice as possible? I would think so. But that's probably an argument for another day. As early as possible with the confidence you're going to be right is the trick. Maybe that's where CTP is lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 As usual, BGM has nothing...they'll issue watches 5 minutes before the onset of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I would think at this point their reluctance to issue any statements has to do with the srefs. Some are decent hits, and some are duds. Areas along/south of Route 22 (eventually I-78) will likely see widespread advisories later today with the afternoon package....if I were to guess. Most guidance points to .25-.50 liquid with slr's around 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I would think at this point their reluctance to issue any statements has to do with the srefs. Some are decent hits, and some are duds. Areas along/south of Route 22 (eventually I-78) will likely see widespread advisories later today with the afternoon package....if I were to guess. Most guidance points to .25-.50 liquid with slr's around 10:1. SREFS have ETA members which are based off nam. The rest look like at lot of .5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM smashing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM smashing! i hate those black and white maps but from what I can tell looks even better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i hate those black and white maps but from what I can tell looks even better than the GFS. Ya looks like 20+MM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 horst goes 3-6 for lancaster area...think he may be a little low with the latest guidance but this is a very tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Horst is titling his discussion "close call for heavy snow"... probably will leave the door open for higher amounts and do a final call tomorrow. That's all a guess, but it would be a solid approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Update JB has 6-12" from DC to PHL 15" in South central and SE PA. That's all for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Update JB has 6-12" from DC to PHL 15" in South central and SE PA. That's all for now. wow...he's really liking the gfs/ggem. 15 would be pushing it imo around here....i think 12 is the max at this point i could see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Update JB has 6-12" from DC to PHL 15" in South central and SE PA. That's all for now. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM P-types Not good. Not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Air RADE for S.C and SE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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