The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I am getting killed with people demanding to know where the snow is, that's why I am asking. I guess 3-6 is still a good call? at this point, i'd definitely say yes but with emphasis towards the 3-4" range. In a fringe situation like this always better to go to the lower amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WHOLESALE UPDATE TO NEAR TERMS GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY PRECIP. LIKELY CAUSE FOR POOR MODEL HANDLING WAS DUE TO PROLIFIC CONVECTION OVER THE GULF...INTERRUPTING MODEL HANDLING OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED. pass-along info from the ny thread re the models... this makes me feel better. So does the radar filling in western ncarolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 MDT at 15" is really a stretch...even the HRRR isn't that far northwest. I tend to agree that SE lanc co and chester co are going to be the sweet spots in this one but with the way the precip keeps building north west of here, this axis could shift up I suppose. Will be interesting to watch later. Agreed. Just saying what JB said yesterday. It should be interesting for sure. if the next 2 hours the precip shield continues north, I will feel better about us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 hmmm maybe JB was on to something...latest surface looks like the transfer is going to happen right off of ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Any mets around to weight in on why the models are shifting the precip due east yet the HRRR and radar aren't? Is that a model hickup or will the precip basically hit a wall and be forced east around the southern border? HRRR has a 3km resolution grid I believe compared to some other models that can run between 30-40km. With grid points only 3km apart, it is able to handle mesoscale features much better than the lower resolution runs. This is why lake effect snow bands and small thunderstorms are not forecasted well with the 30-40km resolution models. This might not be an exact explanation as to why HRRR is showing more precip in PA when the others are not but with sharp precip gradients the lower resolution grids might be missing seeing features to show higher snow totals in southern PA today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 at this point, i'd definitely say yes but with emphasis towards the 3-4" range. In a fringe situation like this always better to go to the lower amounts. Thanks. My co-workers are freaking me out. They want snow all of a sudden and are demanding and whining. It's like real life has transformed into the Philly/NY subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks. My co-workers are freaking me out. They want snow all of a sudden and are demanding and whining. It's like real life has transformed into the Philly/NY subforum oh i know exactly how that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hmmm maybe JB was on to something...latest surface looks like the transfer is going to happen right off of ORF I'm an idiot, but wouldn't we want the transfer to happen west of that point? Again, I'm an idiot so correction is likely needed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks. My co-workers are freaking me out. They want snow all of a sudden and are demanding and whining. It's like real life has transformed into the Philly/NY subforum I know what you mean. Mine act like i have a sickness because i follow the weather, until we are in storm mode and they start showing an interest and wanna know all details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm an idiot, but wouldn't we want the transfer to happen west of that point? Again, I'm an idiot so correction is likely needed! I think it's more of a northerly solution than Hatteras. If the transfer occurs further north, the precip shield goes further north placing us well in good business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm an idiot, but wouldn't we want the transfer to happen west of that point? Again, I'm an idiot so correction is likely needed! Correct me as well, but models had the transfer happing over Hatteras, not Norfolk. As a result of the transfer happening further North so does the movement of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
717WeatherLover Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I must chime in and tell you all how pleasant it is to have this Central PA home! There are some great mets on the Phili subforum who do great play-by-plays which is the only reason I went there. They really are the biggest bunch of IMBY whiners. I participate on Blizzard92's wunderblog and the central pa sorts there are all very pleasant to be around with some fun joking but there just not as many who can break things down and that blog has really grown to the point that it is a North East blog and less focus on Central PA. I try to contribute to discussions but this storm and its development are so far over my head I've given up. Thanks all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like the epic band that tore through Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Detecting lightning by Lynchburg, VA. This is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Have to admit, kind of frustrated the snow is going up just to the west, but I guess in the long run that could be a good sign? Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the sfc pressure map could be a very good thing for scent pa, and these small deviations on quick time scales are giving me more faith in the smaller scale models. i mean this in the least weanie way possible- but I do think that s-cent pa (more lanc than york) will get hammered tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Like I said earlier. I'm impressed what the Ruc is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 is that precip or sim radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Have to admit, kind of frustrated the snow is going up just to the west, but I guess in the long run that could be a good sign? Not sure. i'd say it's a good sign, back building to the west and if it keeps heading north, then you should get into heavier bands later. i know those maps are crap but the low tucked in like that is exactly what jb was hinting at and with surface low where it is right now, I could see this actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 15z HRRR already further north with the heavier precip at hour 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Isn't it a good thing (At least for those of us here in NEPA) that we keep seeing that precip out west build further north? P.S.: The low forming just off ORF is not a bad thing there...last night's EURO had it 100 miles east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
717WeatherLover Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What happens between hours 8 and 9 on the 15Z HRRR? In 8 there is a nice yello arc that reaches almost to Snyder County then in hour 9 it has dropped to the lower part of Dauphin. Moisture shield getting sucked in by the rapidly intensifying low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I know what you mean. Mine act like i have a sickness because i follow the weather, until we are in storm mode and they start showing an interest and wanna know all details. I'm experiencing a similar thing in my office. People treat me like the in-house meteorologist even though my training consists entirely of Met 101 in college and reading blogs and forums. Reading this thread makes me look like a genius today, though. I had warned everyone that the forecasts might bust on the low side, and at least so far it appears as if that is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i'd say it's a good sign, back building to the west and if it keeps heading north, then you should get into heavier bands later. i know those maps are crap but the low tucked in like that is exactly what jb was hinting at and with surface low where it is right now, I could see this actually happening. looks like last frame of the radar from Pittsburgh now showing the precip moving more easterly than northerly. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=pbz&product=N0R&loop=yes Interesting storm to say the least as to the evolution of it. if we can get a more northeasterly movement all of us might be fairly happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What happens between hours 8 and 9 on the 15Z HRRR? In 8 there is a nice yello arc that reaches almost to Snyder County then in hour 9 it has dropped to the lower part of Dauphin. Moisture shield getting sucked in by the rapidly intensifying low? It is interesting because several model depictions I have seen, in the last few hours, show that toungue of qpf getting well into Western PA and then not as far north in the eastern 1/2 of the state. I was assuming low transfer issues but who knows. One would have to assume some enhancement for the mountains as that tongue does seem to be following the western side of some of the higher areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hmmm maybe JB was on to something...latest surface looks like the transfer is going to happen right off of ORF the bouys just off the coast of NC and VA all have been reporting SE winds, HSE reported South winds all night. The low tracked west of HSE, judging from reports it went right over the sounts and is emerging into the atl right now just north of the outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Isn't it a good thing (At least for those of us here in NEPA) that we keep seeing that precip out west build further north? P.S.: The low forming just off ORF is not a bad thing there...last night's EURO had it 100 miles east of there. Yes, this storm is evolving really nicely for us. I do think the core of the heaviest snow will be placed somewhere from Gettysburg east through Philadelphia. Probably right along the Mason-Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the bouys just off the coast of NC and VA all have been reporting SE winds, HSE reported South winds all night. The low tracked west of HSE, judging from reports it went right over the sounts and is emerging into the atl right now just north of the outer banks. Hey, it's looking like your call from last week is working out pretty darn good! I like reading your thoughts, you know your stuff on here better than most. It's a shame you get some flack down there in that thread from time to time. Pop in here more often...your climo is better suited to our area anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Flurries starting to fly here with imminent heavier snow getting ready to head into Blair, should be interesting to watch this evolve this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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