sauss06 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Man I'm happy that I was wrong with my initial thoughts on the storm. This setup is looking nice for south central PA! We like your enthusiasm! it almost (to me anyhow) looks like the heavier stuff has a little while to get here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You guys are making me nervous, stop that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Man I'm happy that I was wrong with my initial thoughts on the storm. This setup is looking nice for south central PA! I hope your right. Radar looks good for the 2nd slug around here but the models don't. 12z GFS similar to the NAM in moving the QPF almost due east from where it is now until it reaches the coast. Good hit for the Mason Dixon line south but up here we are fringed. Nowcasting time at least so lets hope it continues to move further North and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 am i the only one having issues with the radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HRRR been adjusting the heaviest snow axis North. Was to the South of DC and now in just one run its North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 new HRRR...looks very good for SC PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Any mets around to weight in on why the models are shifting the precip due east yet the HRRR and radar aren't? Is that a model hickup or will the precip basically hit a wall and be forced east around the southern border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 new HRRR...looks very good for SC PA That is pushing up Jamies way too isn't it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hrrr is so dramatically different than the globals now. very interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Think the sweet spot in PA is going to be in southeast Lancaster, Chester, and perhaps even Delco. Some of those areas are over 5" from round one and should be in line for another 6-10 later on. Wouldn't be surprised if we hear some amounts in the 12-15 range down that way by morning. That's what JB said yesterday. Just sayin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Any mets around to weight in on why the models are shifting the precip due east yet the HRRR and radar aren't? Is that a model hickup or will the precip basically hit a wall and be forced east around the southern border? I don't think we can really go by the models at this point, right? I think we need to keep looking at whats happening on the radar? But what do i know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't think we can really go by the models at this point, right? I think we need to keep looking at whats happening on the radar? But what do i know I've always been told on this board taht models are best when the event is immediate and to trust them more then than further out. IF that is true, MDT's snow is about done for the day, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Think the sweet spot in PA is going to be in southeast Lancaster, Chester, and perhaps even Delco. Some of those areas are over 5" from round one and should be in line for another 6-10 later on. Wouldn't be surprised if we hear some amounts in the 12-15 range down that way by morning. That's what JB said yesterday. Just sayin'... I was thinking about that, but didn't feel like the effort to go back and find that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hrrr is so dramatically different than the globals now. very interesting... Meso's will be interesting. See if the ARW throws a flag on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That is pushing up Jamies way too isn't it I can't get over the damn stuff is going just to our west.....I have no idea what that means or if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I've always been told on this board taht models are best when the event is immediate and to trust them more then than further out. IF that is true, MDT's snow is about done for the day, no? i don't know. I would much rather look at the radar and watch what is happening around us. But really, i'm not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I can't get over the damn stuff is going just to our west.....I have no idea what that means or if it continues. i was trying to see, but for some reason i have no animation on my radar, its just sitting still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I can't get over the damn stuff is going just to our west.....I have no idea what that means or if it continues. That's definitely not how I pictured the radar looking late this morning. I'm still feeling alright about seeing 2-4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Bubbler, i see you lurking........what did you measure to our west this am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Read in the mid atlantic thread that a met from Baltimore said the NAM suffered from feedback issues which resulted in the northern extent of the precip shield being cut off when it shouldn't have been... That doesn't explain the GFS, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I can't get over the damn stuff is going just to our west.....I have no idea what that means or if it continues. looking at the loop i'd say it's going to continue. I think not until the coastal fully takes over will we see this trend of precip heading north west of state college stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Read in the mid atlantic thread that a met from Baltimore said the NAM suffered from feedback issues which resulted in the northern extent of the precip shield being cut off when it shouldn't have been... That doesn't explain the GFS, though. GFS is a low resolution model 12 hours out...not really the best one to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Think the sweet spot in PA is going to be in southeast Lancaster, Chester, and perhaps even Delco. Some of those areas are over 5" from round one and should be in line for another 6-10 later on. Wouldn't be surprised if we hear some amounts in the 12-15 range down that way by morning. That's what JB said yesterday. Just sayin'... JB was further west. He had MDT in the 15" range on his video. He still holds ground that this will hit further North and West even though the only model supporting him is the JMA. I guess this other HI-RES model supports him. Radar looks good right now. Waiting to see if it goes more east than north the next hour or 2 but if it reaches up to State College we might be looking pretty good once it comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS is a low resolution model 12 hours out...not really the best one to look at. Thanks for your input today........even with a head injury or was that hockey player with a concussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks for your input today........even with a head injury no problem! i'm glad to be apart of this thread now, 10x better than the phl ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 no problem! i'm glad to be apart of this thread now, 10x better than the phl ones. Yeah, that gets brutal in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Bubbler, i see you lurking........what did you measure to our west this am? Although I am indeed to your west at the moment I can only report drizzle this AM as I am in Fla at the moment. I did have a tornado about 2 miles from me last night. Ha. I am living vicariously through you guys. I had thought there was a chance this could over perform and wanted to be here for it but not so sure that is going to happen now. Of course what would an "over perform" be, not sure...but I had previously thought someone in the MDT/Carlisle area could approach a surprise foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 JB was further west. He had MDT in the 15" range on his video. He still holds ground that this will hit further North and West even though the only model supporting him is the JMA. I guess this other HI-RES model supports him. Radar looks good right now. Waiting to see if it goes more east than north the next hour or 2 but if it reaches up to State College we might be looking pretty good once it comes east. MDT at 15" is really a stretch...even the HRRR isn't that far northwest. I tend to agree that SE lanc co and chester co are going to be the sweet spots in this one but with the way the precip keeps building north west of here, this axis could shift up I suppose. Will be interesting to watch later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 looking at the loop i'd say it's going to continue. I think not until the coastal fully takes over will we see this trend of precip heading north west of state college stop I am getting killed with people demanding to know where the snow is, that's why I am asking. I guess 3-6 is still a good call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Although I am indeed to your west at the moment I can only report drizzle this AM as I am in Fla at the moment. I did have a tornado about 2 miles from me last night. Ha. I am living vicariously through you guys. I had thought there was a chance this could over perform and wanted to be here for it but not so sure that is going to happen now. Of course what would an "over perform" be, not sure...but I had previously thought someone in the MDT/Carlisle area could approach a surprise foot. yeah i saw there was pretty severe weather in Fla... 2 miles is to close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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