NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just woke up to light snow. 25.6*F, column saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Here we GO! MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 AM CST WED JAN 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OH...NRN WV...NWRN VA...SWRN/S-CENTRAL PA...NWRN MD INCLUDING PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 261230Z - 261700Z POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH 18Z FOR MIXTURE OF MDT/ISOLD HVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES .1-.2 INCH/HOUR...INVOF OH RIVER VALLEY FROM PKB AREA NEWD INTO WRN PA. PRECIP FARTHER SW ACROSS ERN KY...FAR WRN VA AND SWRN WV HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS RAIN IN CONVEYOR OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA JUXTAPOSED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE DCVA/ASCENT IN MIDLEVELS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...YIELDING MIX OF PRECIP TYPES AS IT CROSSES NEAR- TO BELOW-FREEZING SFC AIR. 12Z SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THERMAL AXIS NEAR TRI...CRW...MGW...LBE LINE...BRACKETED BY FREEZING LINE NEAR LEX...ZZV...30 E HLG...20 N LBE THEN BECOMING ERRATIC DEPENDING ON ELEVATION SWD AND SEWD ACROSS NWRN WV AND NWRN MD/PANHANDLE REGION. WEAK CAA AND DEEP-LAYER COOLING SHOULD HELP TO SHUNT FREEZING LINE SEWD OVER OH RIVER AREA THROUGH FORENOON HOURS...WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SUGGESTING SOME WET-BULB COOLING ALSO TO OCCUR OVER ERN OH/SRN PA/NRN WV PANHANDLE REGION. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF OH VALLEY OF WV/SERN OH IS JUST ABOVE FREEZING ATTM...SNOW IS LIKELY DUE TO COLUMNAR COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG SWATH OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...AS EVIDENT IN TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS. UNTIL THAT OCCURS...TEMPS IN SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE SFC MAY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY. FARTHER SW INVOF VA/WV BORDER AND WRN MD...SUPERFREEZING LAYER MAY BE MAINTAINED ABOVE SFC...WITH FREEZING RAIN BEING MORE DOMINANT THAN SNOW...TRANSITIONING MORE TOWARD SNOW NWD OVER PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 wow woke up to moderate snow and what looks like a little over an inch or so....haven't measured yet. up to 30F, dp at 26. current look at our webcam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValleyPA Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snow's more moderate here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 wow my eye was off...about 2 inches thus far in millersville...friends went outside and measured.(who are met majors) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 About 2 inches in Hershey, the roads are, well, to quote Clay Davis... "Sheeeeeeeeeiiiitttt!". Nice job, PennDOT. YOU. FAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That SPC discussion raised eyebrows - that seems to imply State College might get in on heavy stuff also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just shy of 4 inches and light to moderate snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Read that PennDot only had 1/5th of their crew ready..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 There's a SCHOOL BUS stuck on the road leading up to my office here. WHY THE F IS A SCHOOL BUS A) OUT AND TRYING TO MAKE IT UP A SNOW-COVERED PRETTY STEEP INCLINE? PennDOT / school district fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Read that PennDot only had 1/5th of their crew ready..... Hold on, I want to show you something. This is my "shocked" face... :| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That SPC discussion raised eyebrows - that seems to imply State College might get in on heavy stuff also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hold on, I want to show you something. This is my "shocked" face... :| Yeah I'm not surprised either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Closing in fast on 2" in Harrisburg, still coming down fairly moderately. CTP hasn't changed my forecast, still saying 4-6". Anyone think that'll bust on the low end or will the second batch this afteroon/evening not do as much as we initially thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Surface low beginning to form over Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Closing in fast on 2" in Harrisburg, still coming down fairly moderately. CTP hasn't changed my forecast, still saying 4-6". Anyone think that'll bust on the low end or will the second batch this afteroon/evening not do as much as we initially thought? I think the 4 - 6" is in trouble now. If we can manage to hold onto the precip, albeit light stuff, Harrisburg and Lebanon may get tacked onto the warning for Adams/York/Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Horst now going for 6" to 10" in Lancaster county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think the 4 - 6" is in trouble now. If we can manage to hold onto the precip, albeit light stuff, Harrisburg and Lebanon may get tacked onto the warning for Adams/York/Lancaster. I'm an idiot at predicting this stuff, but I tend to agree. PSUhoffman in the MA thread said he sees no way that deform band doesn't set up shop over MDT later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Horst now going for 6" to 10" in Lancaster county. with over 2 inches already, this is pretty much a lock imo...especially since there shouldn't be any mixing with batch 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Surface low beginning to form over Cape Hatteras. What are we looking at here? The western low still coming through or energy transfer and redevelopment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anyone buying what this is selling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAN shifts south again. I don't buy it one bit. There is now way this thing goes SE first then back NE like the models show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anyone buying what this is selling? hm gives me 2-3 inches in a hour....i'm buying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAN shifts south again. I don't buy it one bit. There is now way this thing goes SE first then back NE like the models show it. the models mean sh*t at this point in the game, i mean which one showed us getting 2 inches this morning...none of them, this is a nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What are we looking at here? The western low still coming through or energy transfer and redevelopment? Take a look as the wind barbs over the Cape Hatteras area. Note how there is a general counterclockwise motion...this is the coastal storm in its nascent stage. Over the next 2 - 6 hours I will post the same map, and you can watch as the surface pressure falls in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 "Anyone buying what this is selling?" That's a 1 hr rate? wwww...ooooo...wwwww!!! But since it's during the day, it won't stick to the roads due to the low albedo. <rolls eyes> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Our friends to the east at Mt.Holly WFO have upped their snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAN shifts south again. I don't buy it one bit. There is now way this thing goes SE first then back NE like the models show it. Biggest worry for Lower Susq. Valley is something similar to this...a forming coastal low robs the western qpf right before it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAN shifts south again. I don't buy it one bit. There is now way this thing goes SE first then back NE like the models show it. All 0z guidance it looks like and new 6z guidance is doing the same thing. Cut way back precip here on the Euro, right? That's an overall trend I couldn't throw out or ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Take a look as the wind barbs over the Cape Hatteras area. Note how there is a general counterclockwise motion...this is the coastal storm in its nascent stage. Over the next 2 - 6 hours I will post the same map, and you can watch as the surface pressure falls in that area. What do you and others think about up here in the State College area? SPC's graphic seems to indicate the heavy precip gets very, very close. This is really interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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