MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hmm interesting. Thank you. I think something fishy is going on here. I guess we shall find out tomorrow. haha its mind boggling really, the globals back off southeast and we have precip comin into the southwest and southern tier of south PA at 06z.. a full 6 hours earlier than what CTP had pegged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 haha its mind boggling really, the globals back off southeast and we have precip comin into the southwest and southern tier of south PA at 06z.. a full 6 hours earlier than what CTP had pegged. Hey that's why we have forecasters to say something is up with the models. If the models were perfect we wouldn't be needed. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 haha its mind boggling really, the globals back off southeast and we have precip comin into the southwest and southern tier of south PA at 06z.. a full 6 hours earlier than what CTP had pegged. euro didnt shift southeast with the track it just shifted the precip. I find that odd... it has the low 996 tucked right along the MD coast at 24 hours but pulled the precip 20 miles southeast or so. Seems off. Its track is well NW of the GFS/NAM precip should be also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 euro didnt shift southeast with the track it just shifted the precip. I find that odd... it has the low 996 tucked right along the MD coast at 24 hours but pulled the precip 20 miles southeast or so. Seems off. Its track is well NW of the GFS/NAM precip should be also. Nice of you to stop in man. Ya something seems off in the models tonight. Did they fly those planes again? I saw some random flights over Nova Scotia earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Local model destruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Obviously the HRRR is on something. Already backed away from the massive slug of returns in CPA with the very next run. *images hotlinked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What an extremely odd series of model runs the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Flurry action 30 deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just issued. wow seems like they think the heaviest will falls west of 95...i'm loving our chances right here in lan co right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wednesday: Snow. High near 33. Northeast wind between 3 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 24. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Why do I still have an adv? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wednesday: Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 34. Northeast wind between 5 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 25. North wind between 9 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wednesday: Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 34. Northeast wind between 5 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 25. North wind between 9 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Why did they up accums now? lol Model were better earlier then they come in drier and they do this? So confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Why did they up accums now? lol Model were better earlier then they come in drier and they do this? So confusing. yeah very confusing/perhaps taking a blend of the high res and the globals...who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 nothing yet from the echoes over head...should fall as snow if/when it begins...temp at 27 up from a low of 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM a bit better this run. I still think another 25-20 miles shift NW and we are there. BTW CTP made my adv 4-7" now. Makes no sense as 6 or 7" is warning. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The final call: shortened the southeast 3-6 region, still think poor ratios and/or mixing holds amounts down on the southeast end of philly metro, nw suburbs should do fine. Flattened the ranges more east-west oriented across the state. I expect alot of general 7-8 inch amounts in the 6-9 range, some isolated 10 inch amounts could happen within the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 The final call: shortened the southeast 3-6 region, still think poor ratios and/or mixing holds amounts down on the southeast end of philly metro, nw suburbs should do fine. Flattened the ranges more east-west oriented across the state. I expect alot of general 7-8 inch amounts in the 6-9 range, some isolated 10 inch amounts could happen within the range. very fair, pretty much the same thoughts and location of snow at this time. also won't be surprised to see a few 12" lollipops in that range but I think that will be just NW of philly where mixing won't kill totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The final call: shortened the southeast 3-6 region, still think poor ratios and/or mixing holds amounts down on the southeast end of philly metro, nw suburbs should do fine. Flattened the ranges more east-west oriented across the state. I expect alot of general 7-8 inch amounts in the 6-9 range, some isolated 10 inch amounts could happen within the range. Looks almost the same as mine. lol BTW MAG why can they get away with an ADV for 4-7" from 6 and 7" is Warning? Plus their forecast is 4-10" in the grid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is pathetic. Do these offices even call each other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 wsw issued here...6-9 inches expected Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA259 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011PAZ064>066-270000-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0001.110126T1200Z-110127T0600Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.110126T1200Z-110127T0600Z/ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER259 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AMEST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THISMORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGERIN EFFECT.* LOCATION...ADAMS...YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 9 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.* WINDS...EAST-NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. DUE TO TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING...THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW.* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MID 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTOF SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUSTTRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...BLANKET AND A CELLULARPHONE IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. STAY TUNED TO NOAAWEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FORTHE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still flurrying here. 30 degrees. Radar shows light snow moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If this happens i'll fall out of my chair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks almost the same as mine. lol BTW MAG why can they get away with an ADV for 4-7" from 6 and 7" is Warning? Plus their forecast is 4-10" in the grid... Tell u what that may be the first time i've ever seen an advisory for 4-7 in our region. You go up north to BGM's cwa and their warning criteria is 7 instead of 6. My best guess is they're expecting alot of 4-5 inch amounts and isolated 6 and 7" amounts to make the mean snow totals stay technically in advisory category.. say 5 inches. Still though, this is going to be a high impact wet snow event that probably should have warnings over advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Tell u what that may be the first time i've ever seen an advisory for 4-7 in our region. You go up north to BGM's cwa and their warning criteria is 7 instead of 6. My best guess is they're expecting alot of 4-5 inch amounts and isolated 6 and 7" amounts to make the mean snow totals stay technically in advisory category.. say 5 inches. Still though, this is going to be a high impact wet snow event that probably should have warnings over advisories. Agree. All southern counties should at least have warnings. Look at this. Warnings south, east, west.... lol http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ctp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 from the obs to our south, sounds like big wet snowflakes coming this way except our temps are much cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Light snow now. Let the games begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Agree. All southern counties should at least have warnings. Look at this. Warnings south, east, west.... lol http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ctp/ I just noticed the western laurels in PBZ have warnings... thats a nice touch lol. I thought the original advisory counties along the southern tier should've been in watches to begin with. Who knows, at least they moved advisories up a couple tiers. I know these offices can coordinate.. though in their defense this storm has been an absolute nightmare to nail down pretty much like everything else this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I just noticed the western laurels in PBZ have warnings... thats a nice touch lol. I thought the original advisory counties along the southern tier should've been in watches to begin with. Who knows, at least they moved advisories up a couple tiers. I know these offices can coordinate.. though in their defense this storm has been an absolute nightmare to nail down pretty much like everything else this year. Very true. Guess no harm going from ADV to warning later if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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