WmsptWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 0z nam has busted already of sfc low position. It initialized with it in the FL panhandle, it's in EC AL This will still trend NW i can use all the NW movement i can get up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i can use all the NW movement i can get up here. Hey.... you're up to 1/4" liquid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hey.... you're up to 1/4" liquid! i seen that...ANY thing is better than NO thing -lol. where's my WSW nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I cross-posted those balloon comments and the low placement comments in the Philly thread, hope you guys don't mind. We use them, figured we should pay 'em back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So at this point should we be ignoring what the gfs says? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Whats going on guys...did I miss anything. From 18z I'd go t-2 IPT...UNV and DUJ.....4-7 MDT......HGR 5-8......Avp 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So at this point should we be ignoring what the gfs says? I think if it shows a lot of snow for us, we are supposed to use it. If it shows none to very little, we throw it out. At least that's what the NYC thread has taught me tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks...I'm still hoping for at least 6" here in Carlisle...hopefully nothing will change! I think if it shows a lot of snow for us, we are supposed to use it. If it shows none to very little, we throw it out. At least that's what the NYC thread has taught me tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow what a surprise this maybe!! I knew this morning the precip looked awfully further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So at this point should we be ignoring what the gfs says? No.... the 0z run should be in the same camp. (I would hope!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So GFS is good at this point but for some reason NAM can't make up its mind! No.... the 0z run should be in the same camp. (I would hope!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Here's a new near term update: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...WATCHING SFC PRESSURE EVOLUTIONS CLOSELY FROM AL TO THE GA COAST THIS EVENING...DUAL LOW STRUCTURE IS FURTHER NORTH THAN 18Z GFS/NAM AND SIMILAR TO 12Z ECMWF...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NEW 00Z NAM12...BUT THE NAM IS CATCHING UP. RESULTING NAM12 RUN PRODUCED A LOW TUCKED CLOSER TO THE COAST LOCATED NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE AT 00Z THU...SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW (6" OR MORE) IN AREAS WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY PLACED. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW ARE SOLIDLY IN THE 0.25 TO 0.35" QPF TOTALS. WHAT WILL BE INTERESTING IS TO SEE THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEFS MEMBERS...AS THE NAM HAS BEEN ON THE DRIER SIDE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS PER COORD WITH WFO MOUNT HOLLY THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP ALL HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS EVENING AND ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT A GOOD LOOK AT THE 00Z SUITE TO MAKE THE BEST WARNING DECISION POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING OF ONSET OF SNOWFALL STILL LOOKS GOOD...BREAKING OUT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WED ALONG THE MD BORDER IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. 20 OR 30 POPS WILL BE RETAINED ALONG THE SRN TIER BEFORE 12Z...WITH SUCH LOW POPS...NO ACCUMS EXPECTED IN 1ST PD. Aside from the actual obs being even further north of the new NAM, another thing I see is it may be shortchanging precip a bit as well. We're already have a pretty nice radar as well as a good push north so far. If the other new models hold serve or come back NW a lil bit CTP will probably at least get advisories up another tier or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 come on ULL make me proud, do your stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM Moist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Eric Host update to his discussion.... sticking with his 3-6 across york and lancaster http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Biggest hourly pressure falls currently in ern NC, with another fall in ern TN. That's where our lows will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm happy for you guys, hopefully the ULL drags the moisture further NW and you guys get hammered even more, while you guys get your 3-7" of snow I may get lol 3-7 snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Biggest hourly pressure falls currently in ern NC, with another fall in ern TN. That's where our lows will go. That could be good news for the NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS also too far south with initial low, and with coastal at 6z. But it's getting closer as well. Amazing to see how poorly the American models have and continue to do with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS also too far south with initial low, and with coastal at 6z. But it's getting closer as well. Amazing to see how poorly the American models have and continue to do with this system. So what are your thoughts tonight for pit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS also too far south with initial low, and with coastal at 6z. But it's getting closer as well. Amazing to see how poorly the American models have and continue to do with this system. Are you sure you're not basing that off the initialization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So what are your thoughts tonight for pit? I would say 2-3" of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Are you sure you're not basing that off the initialization? at 0z the low was about 30-40 miles north of where the gfs has it now. plus it's pushing things a little too fast off the coast. But it is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS cuts back...MDT about 0.50...north of 80 sees less than 0.10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS looks whack to me. Upper level low placed there will not yield what 6hr precip shows. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 UKMET like the RGEM but, stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS continues to shove that thing off the coast, i'm actually surprised with its low track that it got the precip it did into the southern half of PA. I still like the 12z ECMWF track and precip evolution to this system. In the meantime i'm hitting up the snowboarding IMBY, be back in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS continues to shove that thing off the coast, i'm actually surprised with its low track that it got the precip it did into the southern half of PA. I still like the 12z ECMWF track and precip evolution to this system. In the meantime i'm hitting up the snowboarding IMBY, be back in a bit The ULL is over southern MD not sure why it is all whacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SPC's WRF. WOW http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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