Voyager Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Since we have some newbies here just remember to measure on a clean surface, not in the grass or in an area with old snow. Here's a good post and thread from Ray (famartin) on snowfall measurement: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Geez...down towards Florida it kind of looks like the squall line seen in the 1993 storm. I noticed that...the vort max @ 500 really looks pretty right now. Someone is going to get a surprise from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I noticed that...the vort max @ 500 really looks pretty right now. Someone is going to get a surprise from this. You think we might do better further NW? With all this GOM moisture I find it hard to believe we see <0.4-0.5 QPF now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Geez.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here's a good post and thread from Ray (famartin) on snowfall measurement: http://www.americanw...measuring-tips/ good video I should have mentioned drifting, that may be one of the biggest errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 man step away for a few hours and come back to the rgem and all i could think was i think this is going to be one of those storms where totals keep increasing up until the storm and during the storm...just looking at the radar down south, this thing is going to overperform qpf wise imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 They need to extend watches/warnings West and NW now I think. No reason not too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just watched Weather World presented tonight by the lovely and talented Marisa Ferger. 6"+ Harrisburg south and east. Main concern was for mixing versus low QPF. 3 - 6" from Harrisburg to a Johnston, State College, Scranton line. <3" far west, NW and north. If you're interested in watching, click here http://www.pcntv.com/pcnplus/ then scroll down using the far right bar until you get to Weather World. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 They need to extend watches/warnings West and NW now I think. No reason not too. no way they do though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 exciting wording from HPC THE INSTABILITY AND UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE/COMMA-HEAD WILL BE OFF THE CHARTS... POSSIBLY ALLOWING A CONVECTIVE ASPECT TO BECOME INVOLVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 no way they do though Ya until we have 6" on the ground with 2" per hr rates. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Winter storm warning warnings now in MD. Clashing with a random adv. lol Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 man step away for a few hours and come back to the rgem and all i could think was i think this is going to be one of those storms where totals keep increasing up until the storm and during the storm...just looking at the radar down south, this thing is going to overperform qpf wise imo. You guys do realize that RGEM printout that was posted in here earlier is in millmeters right? I don't like to be Buzz Killington but the only places that are over an inch of QPF is towards the dc/philly region with more of a .5-.75 toward Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 yeah but it looks more like .75-1 in lan co which is a good tick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here is what I think it should look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You guys do realize that RGEM printout that was posted in here earlier is in millmeters right? I don't like to be Buzz Killington but the only places that are over an inch of QPF is towards the dc/philly region with more of a .5-.75 toward Harrisburg. Ya it's like 25MM+ which is 1"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Boy I don't like that my area is probably in one of the biggest bust regions for this storm. Although most models support 6 plus for us seasonal trends have always played down that number this year and we end up with less than 6. I did like that the GFS ensembles came in further west at 18z. well, it is JB's 15" vs NWS winter weather advisory no big deal of a wet snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here is what I think it should look like. will probably end up looking like that in the end. maybe move the adv. to the county south of altoona and west one county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 will probably end up looking like that in the end. maybe move the adv. to the county south of altoona and west one county. Somerset? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 From the Mid-Atlantic Thread Just a quick note to everyone here. It is now within "Nowcasting" time--and it is worth watching trends and how this storm develops wrt the model guidance. Personally I think the NAM 18Z being a tad NW of the GFS is probably more realistic given the intensity of the PV max and the fact these defo bands typically end up farther displaced from the low level circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Eric F on abc27 says: State College 1" MDT 3-4" York: 4" Lancaster 4.5" Says York and Lancaster will have lots of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Somerset? lol yeah somerset and bedford...i could understand an advisory there...it's a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 From the Mid-Atlantic Thread that dude knows his stuff, very good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Eric F on abc27 says: State College 1" MDT 3-4" York: 4" Lancaster 4.5" Says York and Lancaster will have lots of mixing. have you seen WGAL's forecast? they're usually the best around here imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't understand this big mixing concern for Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't understand this big mixing concern for Harrisburg. even lns...at most it's a little mixing during the light precip but the heavy stuff will be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't understand this big mixing concern for Harrisburg. I think the media is lagging by about 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Numbers off my map JST 2" AOO: 3" UNV: 3" IPT: 2" MDT: 8" HGR: 10" LNS: 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here was my first call map from last night, I'm probably gonna have to give in and give philly their 6+ when i update this later in the evening. But i still think mixing is going to show up in that southeastern 3-6 zone in some fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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