Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 no just one of those 40% of your semester grade level papers haha. Just a compilation of lots of studies and some analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i did a major research paper on major winter storms in the northeast. Just about every one was proceeded by severe weather outbreaks in the SE. 93 being one of the most extreme examples. 93 had a storm surge up to 12 feet when the severe wx hit the west coast of fl! Thanks. Any red taggers have any input? Wonder what the holy grail has to say about this subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, if you're the NWS, do you want to issue watches for a bunch of counties that have a decent chance of not verifying? That doesn't help their verification stats. I sound like I have a vested interest in CTP, but I really don't.... That said, I agree with them. We've been through this more than once this winter. I've had people from JB to DT and everyone else under the sun forecast a total of about 50" worth of snow, thus far I've received just over 9". Last week people were whining LOUDLY for warnings, and many of us ended up under an inch down here. I'm not saying any more about this subject. Obviously I'm in the big minority on this one. I hope we all get slammed, I really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tasty. Watches need to be expanded for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 From CTP discussion - " EVEN WHERE THE AIR WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...MORE OF THE ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE SNOW COVER...AND MOST LIKELY LESS ON THE BLACKTOP DUE TO IT/S LOW ALBEDO AND THE MAINLY-DAYLIGHT PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW/PRECIP. EVEN IN MID JANUARY...THE SUN HAS A MINIMIZING EFFECT ON SNOW ACCUMS. THEREFORE HAVE PAINTED 10:1 OR WETTER RATIOS. AS THE SUN SETS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LAURELS AND TOWARD THE SUSQ RIVER. AS THE TEMPS GET COLDER...LESS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. BUT...ACCUMS THERE SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AFTER THEN. IT SHOULD BE ALL OVER BY MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM." I thought this was a Wednesday evening to overnight event but more like tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z nam 00hr w/ current radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 From CTP discussion - " EVEN WHERE THE AIR WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...MORE OF THE ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE SNOW COVER...AND MOST LIKELY LESS ON THE BLACKTOP DUE TO IT/S LOW ALBEDO AND THE MAINLY-DAYLIGHT PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW/PRECIP. EVEN IN MID JANUARY...THE SUN HAS A MINIMIZING EFFECT ON SNOW ACCUMS. THEREFORE HAVE PAINTED 10:1 OR WETTER RATIOS. AS THE SUN SETS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LAURELS AND TOWARD THE SUSQ RIVER. AS THE TEMPS GET COLDER...LESS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. BUT...ACCUMS THERE SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AFTER THEN. IT SHOULD BE ALL OVER BY MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM." I thought this was a Wednesday evening to overnight event but more like tomorrow afternoon? Not agree at all. Heaviest will be after 2PM Agree on the last part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looking good for MDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So what is the timeframe? Late morning start time? Also will there be more snow than mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Starts around 12pm. Heaviest around 2-3PM till 9PM then light till about 12AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So what is the timeframe? Late morning start time? Also will there be more snow than mixing? do not want to be ignorant, but when you get home from school, go back and read a couple pages and get caught up. Your answers lie within Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not agree at all. Heaviest will be after 2PM Agree on the last part. I have been thinking, did we ever get to the progged highs today? My avatar says 34, but i'm at 32. it looks like it wants to snow now in hbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I have been thinking, did we ever get to the progged highs today? My avatar says 34, but i'm at 32. it looks like it wants to snow now in hbg Hit my high of 40 here right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I have been thinking, did we ever get to the progged highs today? My avatar says 34, but i'm at 32. it looks like it wants to snow now in hbg I noticed that too, the cloud cover probably caused that. Even so, the winds are still NW...probably the weenie in me coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hit my high of 40 here right on. I just looked, we were to be 38, i know we didn't get there. WHTM calling for 2-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW, I still have 4-8 out to clients for MDT and 2-5 for IPT/SEG/UNV. Haven't really changed much from last week in Central PA (definitely had to beef things up along I-95 though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 if 18z NAM really has much meaning... QPF from text output... take with grain of salt... MDT - .42" ABE - .35" PHL - .39" MPO - .26" HGR - .45" LNS - .46" THV - .41" UNV - .05" DCA - .38" (might be mostly rain though) BWI - .32" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Basically, CTP is saying the snow won't stick to the roadways much at all? Wha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM QPF maps show alot more than those text printouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM QPF maps show alot more than those text printouts. Bottom right is total QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Bottom right is total QPF... Heck, this has me close to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Heck, this has me close to 1" That is just outstanding NAM finally coming around and JB might just be right for change with his farther west ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Clown map... solid hit for SC PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Basically, CTP is saying the snow won't stick to the roadways much at all? Wha? Interesting. I know that's sometimes an issue for late-season storms, but we're right in the heart of winter and it's been frigid up until the last several hours. Here in my office, the managers use the official NWS forecasts and local TV stations to determine whether or not to plan ahead for a "snow day." Since we're only under a WWA and the TV mets are saying 3-6, there have been no contingency plans made for tomorrow. I wonder what they're going to do if the projected amounts increase dramatically late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Interesting. I know that's sometimes an issue for late-season storms, but we're right in the heart of winter and it's been frigid up until the last several hours. Here in my office, the managers use the official NWS forecasts and local TV stations to determine whether or not to plan ahead for a "snow day." Since we're only under a WWA and the TV mets are saying 3-6, there have been no contingency plans made for tomorrow. I wonder what they're going to do if the projected amounts increase dramatically late tonight. Easy. Same as me. You're either going to have to suck it up or come down with a "nasty case of the sniffles"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 AIR RAID!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 AIR RAID!!!! Now THAT is awesome! Good thermal profile for dendrites and a nice track of all the lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Interesting. I know that's sometimes an issue for late-season storms, but we're right in the heart of winter and it's been frigid up until the last several hours. Here in my office, the managers use the official NWS forecasts and local TV stations to determine whether or not to plan ahead for a "snow day." Since we're only under a WWA and the TV mets are saying 3-6, there have been no contingency plans made for tomorrow. I wonder what they're going to do if the projected amounts increase dramatically late tonight. We are in the heart of winter temperature-wise, but since we are over a month past the solstice the sun is at a higher angle and stronger than it was in late December. Since temperatures will be around freezing, PennDOT should be able to maintain decent road conditions during the day, at least until any heavy snowfall rates move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here in my office, the managers use the official NWS forecasts and local TV stations to determine whether or not to plan ahead for a "snow day." Since we're only under a WWA and the TV mets are saying 3-6, there have been no contingency plans made for tomorrow. I wonder what they're going to do if the projected amounts increase dramatically late tonight. Certainly emphasizes the point of the importance of NWS forecast products and the ramifications thereof. For your sake, I hope it's Advisory levels. It would suck being on 81/83/76 in inch/hour or more whiteout conditions when you could/should have stayed home. Now my weenie side says here's hoping for 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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