hckyplayer8 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No what model are you looking at? The euro, ukmet, gfs, jma, cmc are all warning type snows. GFS .25-.50 GEFS .25-.50 Euro .5-.75 UK- looks like .5-.75 (no total plots so judging off shotty 6 hr maps) CMC- looks like .5-.75 (again crappy plots) You really want to hang SC for going conservative and not posting WSW for counties that are barely pushing criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yep, I actually think CTP has placed everything well for now given the uncertainty of QPF, snow ratios and mixing. They can always adjust back if the precip looks like it's coming farther west. i agree. Patternwise, oftentimes the ccb will poke back and then rotate northeast. remember the models are a suggestion not a verbatim crystal ball. When I look at the WSW for all offices it is over the path i would expect to see that axis rotate. Sorry further west.... but of course they could upgrade you to a warning once you have 6 or 7 inches on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS .25-.50 GEFS .25-.50 Euro .5-.75 UK- looks like .5-.75 (no total plots so judging off shotty 6 hr maps) CMC- looks like .5-.75 (again crappy plots) You really want to hang SC for going conservative and not posting WSW for counties that are barely pushing criteria? Barely? 3 of those listed are WSW easy, GFS close but Bukfit was like 6" as well. So yes WSW is needed. A watch is a watch means it's possible which it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS .25-.50 GEFS .25-.50 Euro .5-.75 UK- looks like .5-.75 (no total plots so judging off shotty 6 hr maps) CMC- looks like .5-.75 (again crappy plots) You really want to hang SC for going conservative and not posting WSW for counties that are barely pushing criteria? Yeah, if you're the NWS, do you want to issue watches for a bunch of counties that have a decent chance of not verifying? That doesn't help their verification stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yep, I actually think CTP has placed everything well for now given the uncertainty of QPF, snow ratios and mixing. They can always adjust back if the precip looks like it's coming farther west. Right. I think they will wait and see how much mixing actually occurs before going to warning status. If not much mixing or changes to snow early then warnings will be more likely. They would look rather foolish if they issue warnings now and then half of our precip falls as rain. No doubt there will be precip, just think the borderline mixing issues are what is keeping them from watch/warning right now. They also called for 3-5" in Harrisburg last week and we barely got an inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well CTP's fav thing to look at the SREFS shifted north as well as a ton of the ETA models which were way south last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 OK, now that CTP has issued their products - as tardy and perplexing as they may be - let's get back to the storm. We can always storm State College with pitchforks and torches later if Dauphin County gets 6"+. Radar really taking on the classic comma configuration and the squall line coming toward Florida is quite impressive. Most of central Florida is under a Tornado Watch. That doesn't happen often in January anywhere in the US. Quite the storm forming before our eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Barely? 3 of those listed are WSW easy, GFS close but Bukfit was like 6" as well. So yes WSW is needed. A watch is a watch means it's possible which it is. I actually think it is fine for now. They can certainly upgrade later and there is still uncertainity given all of the inconsistencies with the models late. Today they did shift west or stayed put with the exception of the NAM. What I think is funny is JB calling for 15 plus in our region and NWS saying a minor to moderate event. Talk about differences in forecasting and impacts to the area based on what really happens tomorrow and tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 OK, now that CTP has issued their products - as tardy and perplexing as they may be - let's get back to the storm. We can always storm State College with pitchforks and torches later if Dauphin County gets 6"+. Radar really taking on the classic comma configuration and the squall line coming toward Florida is quite impressive. Most of central Florida is under a Tornado Watch. That doesn't happen often in January anywhere in the US. Quite the storm forming before our eyes. yes sir...going to be a fun 24 hours for sure. I'm still pretty pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Licks chops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I actually think it is fine for now. They can certainly upgrade later and there is still uncertainity given all of the inconsistencies with the models late. Today they did shift west or stayed put with the exception of the NAM. What I think is funny is JB calling for 15 plus in our region and NWS saying a minor to moderate event. Talk about differences in forecasting and impacts to the area based on what really happens tomorrow and tomorrow night. this has already created confustion. I have spoke with several different people who questioned the 2 and the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well CTP's fav thing to look at the SREFS shifted north as well as a ton of the ETA models which were way south last run. wow give me eta 4 plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 this has already created confustion. I have spoke with several different people who questioned the 2 and the difference. Exactly. That is what is difficult for folks that don't follow these storms like we do and not knowing all of the different models forecasters use. I certainly wouldn't want to forecast this storm. There is still a slight chance we stay cloudy and damp tomorrow with nothing vs a all out ranging blizzard of wet snow dumping a foot of snow in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Advisory, watch, warning. Who cares? It's probably going to snow, you'll probably have to shovel and it'll probably make for pretty photos and happy faces. Don't get bent out of shape over terminology that doesn't matter much. We all know PennDOT can't plow no matter the event type or name! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 the thing i'm dreading is if JB is right we won't hear the end of how bad the NWS is for the next decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Barely? 3 of those listed are WSW easy, GFS close but Bukfit was like 6" as well. So yes WSW is needed. A watch is a watch means it's possible which it is. We are talking a broad area (when forecasting locally). You know where those .75 amounts are? Right smack dab up against the areas that currently have a WSW. You can probably make a gripe about Franklin, Fulton and Bedford but any more North than that...it gets iffy as amounts drop vastly. Yeah, if you're the NWS, do you want to issue watches for a bunch of counties that have a decent chance of not verifying? That doesn't help their verification stats. Yup especially after events like Dec 25-26. Believe they went 6-10 East of I81. Me being right up against 81 got about 2 and you had to go all the way out to 476 before you started seeing 5". I know, different beast but when you have models shifting the nasty comma head stuff East and tight gradients on the NW side, can't really blame them for going conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Advisory, watch, warning. Who cares? It's probably going to snow, you'll probably have to shovel and it'll probably make for pretty photos and happy faces. Don't get bent out of shape over terminology that doesn't matter much. We all know PennDOT can't plow no matter the event type or name! agreed but for public safety, an advisory imo indicates a nuisance event, take it slow on your commute and you;ll be fine while a warning is take the day off and stay off the roads. it's a tough call but with it being so close i don't know why a watch then downgrade to an advisory would be unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 From Eric Horst: P.S. Here's a little shop talk. I've been showing our students today the impressive subtropical plume streaming from the southern Gulf of Mexico towards Florida. Massive thunderstorms are exploding along this trajectory and a tornado watch was just issued for central Florida. This type of warm, moist input into a developing storm is a real wild card...and it's something that's not well modeled. This feature catches my attention because it's been a precursor to some of the major east coast storms of the past. It's for this reason that my Storm Outlook is rather bullish on the idea of a heavy snow band developing somewhere in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. If it weren't for the fast movement, I'd wonder if some places might even get more than a foot of snow? Just thinking out loud... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, if you're the NWS, do you want to issue watches for a bunch of counties that have a decent chance of not verifying? That doesn't help their verification stats. That's a pretty tough call, it def looks like heck attm vs all of those winter storm watches to the due south and northeast. I personally would've put those advisory counties in watches and maybe placed advisories up a tier from that, or just held off on advisories till this evening. I think Bedford and Fulton would have a decent shot of seeing 6 inch amounts in their southern tier given the models sans the nam. I can see where their comin from being conservative with snow/liquid ratios and potential for precip to have trouble pushing north. I wonder what hurts their verification worse.. going from advisories to warnings, or going from watches to advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My point-and-click in Harrisburg confirms the advisory. CTP is being very conservative, considering the last "storm" I see why. Wednesday: Snow before 1pm, then snow, possibly mixed with rain between 1pm and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 35. Calm wind becoming north between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 10pm. Low around 24. North wind between 8 and 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. 2-4" is a minor event. If that's what CTP is forecasting for MDT, that's why it's just an advisory and makes total sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We are talking a broad area (when forecasting locally). You know where those .75 amounts are? Right smack dab up against the areas that currently have a WSW. You can probably make a gripe about Franklin, Fulton and Bedford but any more North than that...it gets iffy as amounts drop vastly. Yup especially after events like the Dec 25-26. Believe they went 6-10 East of I81. Me being right up against 81 got about 2 and you had to go all the way out to 476 before you started seeing 5". I know, different beast but when you have models shifting the nasty comma head stuff East and tight gradients on the NW side, can't really blame them for going conservative. That is a concern I have -- everything came way north on Christmas Day and who had the least snow (and most accurate) precip? The NAM. If I had used just the NAM for my forecast Christmas night, it would have been much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 From Eric Horst: P.S. Here's a little shop talk. I've been showing our students today the impressive subtropical plume streaming from the southern Gulf of Mexico towards Florida. Massive thunderstorms are exploding along this trajectory and a tornado watch was just issued for central Florida. This type of warm, moist input into a developing storm is a real wild card...and it's something that's not well modeled. This feature catches my attention because it's been a precursor to some of the major east coast storms of the past. It's for this reason that my Storm Outlook is rather bullish on the idea of a heavy snow band developing somewhere in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. If it weren't for the fast movement, I'd wonder if some places might even get more than a foot of snow? Just thinking out loud... :-) It was always my understanding that convective development along the dry line hinders moisture transportation into the cold sector of the storm. So I would have thought its the opposite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Any analysis on the WV loop ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 And the nam is now back. Can i have my WSW now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 um......did the weenies crash NCEP's server? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LOL! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/fp0_024.shtml NAM is way west from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It was always my understanding that convective development along the dry line hinders moisture transportation into the cold sector of the storm. So I would have thought its the opposite? i did a major research paper on major winter storms in the northeast. Just about every one was proceeded by severe weather outbreaks in the SE. 93 being one of the most extreme examples. 93 had a storm surge up to 12 feet when the severe wx hit the west coast of fl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the thing i'm dreading is if JB is right we won't hear the end of how bad the NWS is for the next decade. Heck for 15" of snow, I'd take that! i did a major research paper on major winter storms in the northeast. Just about every one was proceeded by severe weather outbreaks in the SE. 93 being one of the most extreme examples. 93 had a storm surge up to 12 feet when the severe wx hit the west coast of fl! Is it published? I'd love to read it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So what is going on? State College has a winter storm watch up for AROUND 6 INCHES and RAIN MIX?!? WTF? I thought York and Lancaster looked good for 6+ plus inches and little mixing from the latest models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 oh man.. That's pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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