40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 To be honest I'm amped about the storm I think we could all get a big hit if things fall into place. That said there are still some elements that are of concern so can't go crazy yet. Absolutely the right stance to take and I would do the same if folks actually gave a damn what I thought. I already locked 1-2' to fam and friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 They have been pinned near the BM since halloween. Lol, I didn't realize they were good today. Everyone goes balls to the wall if the GFS is a big hit tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Absolutely the right stance to take and I would do the same if folks actually gave a damn what I thought. I already locked 1-2' to fam and friends. We care, especially your H5 analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I highlighted the two little features near the baja, and then rolled the gif through about 30 hours. There's a speed increase because I dropped from 3 to 6 hours later on to save space/got lazy. Those features exist, I can see where the NAM/GFS and others were generating them from. Whether or not they are the player that the NAM makes them out to be who knows, but I think we'd expect the meso models to grab hold of such small scale features better. It's a tough call legit feature vs potential convective spinup. You'll notice at 30/33 hours all of the heavier moisture is EAST of that feature as it shears up the coast of SC...that's been somewhat consistent on all the regional models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just like a massage on craigslist......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 "SNE, where every storm has a happy ending!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The two steps up, one step back routine wrt to track/timing will give us a canal cutter when the storm finally reaches us on Saturday morning. I'm out. Keep up the good fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We care, especially your H5 analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i know everyone is focused on this storm but radar is looking better for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks, that was a much needed laugh! You are going to get at least 8" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I highlighted the two little features near the baja, and then rolled the gif through about 30 hours. There's a speed increase because I dropped from 3 to 6 hours later on to save space/got lazy. Those features exist, I can see where the NAM/GFS and others were generating them from. Whether or not they are the player that the NAM makes them out to be who knows, but I think we'd expect the meso models to grab hold of such small scale features better. It's a tough call legit feature vs potential convective spinup. You'll notice at 30/33 hours all of the heavier moisture is EAST of that feature as it shears up the coast of SC...that's been somewhat consistent on all the regional models. Wouldn't let me attach the 2nd one...here's the donkey radar. Notice everything is east of that system shearing up the coast in the Carolinas. It's not dramatically different than the old RGEM in how it handled that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wouldn't let me attach the 2nd one...here's the donkey radar. Notice everything is east of that system shearing up the coast in the Carolinas. It's not dramatically different than the old RGEM in how it handled that feature. The sim radar looks somewhat like last night's version... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You are going to get at least 8" of snow. Tending to feel like your MECS might be more in the cards with this puppy. No complaints if that hold up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wouldn't let me attach the 2nd one...here's the donkey radar. Notice everything is east of that system shearing up the coast in the Carolinas. What the NAM really keys on is serious deformation and frontogenesis on the nrn and nw side of H7 and H5. I do agree that we may see some great banding with that, and that has been flagged on all models. My issue is with the waa and developing ccb. Some models like the GFS and NAM do not necessarily agree on it, and keep it more disorganized. I think among all other reasons that were said, the GFS is also much faster than the euro and thus cannot get the CCB going in time due to speed. Basically, things don't come together on the GFS, like they do on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You are going to get at least 8" of snow. We'll see. I can see a situation where I get 5" and AFN gets 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What the NAM really keys on is serious deformation and frontogenesis on the nrn and nw side of H7 and H5. I do agree that we may see some great banding with that, and that has been flagged on all models. My issue is with the waa and developing ccb. Some models like the GFS and NAM do not necessarily agree on it, and keep it more disorganized. I think among all other reasons that were said, the GFS is also much faster than the euro and thus cannot get the CCB going in time due to speed. Basically, things don't come together on the GFS, like they do on the euro. The GFS always has a speed bias....too fast. Hopefully it slows tonight and we can get a reasonable solution. Second, either the NAM will fail because it picks up too much detail, or the globals will fail because they didn't pick up enough. The NAM and I think the earlier RGEM's were heading towards this type of solution because they're allowing a mega dry punch to come up from the GOM in association with what appears to be very weak features. That jams NNE right at us but eventually just to our ESE. The problem ends up being the offshore moisture is cut off, and we have to wait for the system to develop and get the CCB going. Very complex, not quite what was modeled a day or two ago but I'm thinking the NAM in general is onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Damn....Canadians are lazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 more then i thought for tonight this will freshen everything up 959 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011 ...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON COMMUTE... LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK LATE MONDAY EVENING WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 3 AM TUESDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY FALL AT A MODERATE INTENSITY FOR A TIME BETWEEN 6 AM AND 10 AM...BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PLAN TO USE SOME EXTRA TIME AND CAUTION IF TRAVELING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you run the loop on this site you'll see where that comes from. Right now near the Baja there's actually 2 systems...one near the southern tip, one south of that. The NAM slings the slightly more northern one SSE collapsing it into the other and then as the m/l tightens up they get sheared/slung through the GOM to pop up again as these mini vorticies we all assumed were convectively induced. They still may be for that matter....but they then ride up along the SE coast, and stay disconnected from the main m/l. 100% that's what's messing up the systems development on this model and elongating the entire thing. http://tempest.aos.w...ta_c500_h03.gif Loop it through manually, you can follow it all the way up and around. Thanks so much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sweetness on the snow overnight, look at the trees not just the forest. Good weenies, got some decent snow on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks so much! Wiz, could be a combo deal, looks to be a little spin in central mexico already. It's tough to tell with the grid whether it's a combination, those features alone etc. But look in central mexico there's a feature heading NE about to emerge into the NW bay of campeche. In retrospect it may be more about that than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That is the problem with the NAM...a seal in Georges Bank will fart and it will consider that enough convection to alter the entire synoptic setup. Now THAT is funny!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM is along the same lines, elongated low pressure. It's stronger than the NAM but there's a honking dry slot all the way up off the Jersey shore. I think this dual/split system thing has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM is along the same lines, elongated low pressure. It's stronger than the NAM but there's a honking dry slot all the way up off the Jersey shore. I think this dual/split system thing has legs. ... It's convective feedback - toss that appeal. It won't likely happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM is along the same lines, elongated low pressure. It's stronger than the NAM but there's a honking dry slot all the way up off the Jersey shore. I think this dual/split system thing has legs. I strongly disagree. Look at the difference at the negative tilt on RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wiz, could be a combo deal, looks to be a little spin in central mexico already. It's tough to tell with the grid whether it's a combination, those features alone etc. But look in central mexico there's a feature heading NE about to emerge into the NW bay of campeche. In retrospect it may be more about that than anything. Does look like some sort of spin...very interesting. Really looking forward to the GFS tonight, right now it seems to be virtually most models vs. the NAM. WOnder if we continue to see the gFS sway from the NAM or perhaps converge towards a similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Is the such thing as EARLY AFTERNOON COMMUTE? more then i thought for tonight this will freshen everything up 959 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011 ...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON COMMUTE... LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK LATE MONDAY EVENING WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 3 AM TUESDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY FALL AT A MODERATE INTENSITY FOR A TIME BETWEEN 6 AM AND 10 AM...BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PLAN TO USE SOME EXTRA TIME AND CAUTION IF TRAVELING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Is the such thing as EARLY AFTERNOON COMMUTE? Huh? That says 6am to 10am may snow moderately - that's the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I strongly disagree. Look at the difference at the negative tilt on RGEM. Look at the RGEM 48h vs the GGEM 60. It's not even close in what it's done, where it's going. It's going to be a fragmented two part system like the NAM and IMO the bagginess extends south of the BM this run. Tip might be right, maybe it's convective feedback, but the feature in Mexico is there....and that's what tracks up and around. Instead of a tighter 994, the RGEM which is so often stronger is an elongated 996 that's produced a lot less precipitation ending 0z versus the old GGEM. It's similar to the NAM in the sense that there's a lobe of moisture ot the west, west of DC, the moisture out over the sea, and then a dryer area between the two. Let's see if that becomes the theme tonight. Just my comments on this model, and the NAM. Let the globals roll. I think it ties back to the features coming up and around - but whether these models are going bezerk and spinning up something that is overdone/convective process associated with them....we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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