40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah a work in progress. It's interesting though.. if you compare the main trough energy at 42 hrs to the 18z GFS at 48 hours, the NAM is considerably farther west and looks to be barreling northward. If you were to look at that alone I would expect the NAM to be well west of the GFS. But that leading PVA/convection off the coastline already by 42 hrs prevents it from closing off and winding up That is the problem with the NAM...a seal in Georges Bank will fart and it will consider that enough convection to alter the entire synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 15" lollies??? I ate mine early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z was flurries mby, 00z is .25". Baby steps, still a couple days of nice NW trends to go. Exactly,little baby steps. Come to Papa. lol You know how this ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That is the problem with the NAM...a seal in Georges Bank will fart and it will consider that enough convection to alter the entire synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This vort just east f ME there seems kind of odd.. If you run the loop on this site you'll see where that comes from. Right now near the Baja there's actually 2 systems...one near the southern tip, one south of that. The NAM slings the slightly more northern one SSE collapsing it into the other and then as the m/l tightens up they get sheared/slung through the GOM to pop up again as these mini vorticies we all assumed were convectively induced. They still may be for that matter....but they then ride up along the SE coast, and stay disconnected from the main m/l. 100% that's what's messing up the systems development on this model and elongating the entire thing. http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/wxp_images/eta212_00UTC/eta_c500_h03.gif Loop it through manually, you can follow it all the way up and around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah the GFS going berserk with with closing the 500mb low probably isn't totally right either. A solution in between is likely which probably is a good snowstorm for many of us. My 3-6, 6-12 call stands So really you're call of 3-12...nice range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah the GFS going berserk with with closing the 500mb low probably isn't totally right either. A solution in between is likely which probably is a good snowstorm for many of us. My 3-6, 6-12 call stands The EURO is more than that for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That is the problem with the NAM...a seal in Georges Bank will fart and it will consider that enough convection to alter the entire synoptic setup. Which begs the question....why are you feeding the seals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Exactly,little baby steps. Come to Papa. lol You know how this ends. For you, jackpot. For me, relative local minima. Been saying it all along, I like where this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So really you're call of 3-12...nice range... Actually no, but thanks for playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Which begs the question....why are you feeding the seals? I'm not feeding them anything....I'm going with the EURO and it's ensembles. High end MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The EURO is more than that for many of us. Maybe but probably has pingers for a lot of us too which is why I think a conservative call is good for now. There's a couple of things that could go wrong in this setup so that's why I think Harvey went on the conservative side of things and why I did as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So really you're call of 3-12...nice range... You make Ryan want to post, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Actually no, but thanks for playing. Was just giving you a hard time...don't take it personal... - I am still learning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That is the problem with the NAM...a seal in Georges Bank will fart and it will consider that enough convection to alter the entire synoptic setup. Thanks, that was a much needed laugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe but probably has pingers for a lot of us too which is why I think a conservative call is good for now. There's a couple of things that could go wrong in this setup so that's why I think Harvey went on the conservative side of things and why I did as well. You know what your gut tells you, but you have to play it conservative....I know the deal. High-end MECS....I don't even view it as a tough call. Pingers s of the pike....maybe even some up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 vs 18Z same time period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This will continue to adjust NW. Think back to last Friday. The two steps up, one step back routine wrt to track/timing will give us a canal cutter when the storm finally reaches us on Saturday morning. I'm out. Keep up the good fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe the bottom line take away here is the the globals have been pretty consistent and the NAM and GFS continue to be all over the place (at least the 0Z NAM so far). Does this NAM run really change anything at this point? I'm certainly no expert, but it does bring the precip shield back to the NW, say about 25 miles, whcih trends to the other models. Other than that, what's the difference? BTW, OT, I know, but just dropped from 2 to -5 in the past 45 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe but probably has pingers for a lot of us too which is why I think a conservative call is good for now. There's a couple of things that could go wrong in this setup so that's why I think Harvey went on the conservative side of things and why I did as well. Even if it showed me getting 2' of powder, I'd still be reserved. I see what the NAM is doing, but I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The two steps up, one step back routine wrt to track/timing will give us a canal cutter when the storm finally reaches us on Saturday morning. I'm out. Keep up the good fight. One storm this year will do that......hasn't happened yet if you discount last Tuesday's warm abortion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm not feeding them anything....I'm going with the EURO and it's ensembles. High end MECS. The Euro ens were a big deal too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Even if it showed me getting 2' of powder, I'd still be reserved. I see what the NAM is doing, but I dunno. Absolutely...it's your livelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Exactly,little baby steps. Come to Papa. lol You know how this ends. Just like a massage on craigslist......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The problem is the NAM develops a closed 500 mb low in the South and then it opens it up as it moves northeast and then it drifts east just missing clobbering of NE as the northern stream wave kicks it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You know what your gut tells you, but you have to play it conservative....I know the deal. High-end MECS....I don't even view it as a tough call. Pingers s of the pike....maybe even some up here. To be honest I'm amped about the storm I think we could all get a big hit if things fall into place. That said there are still some elements that are of concern so can't go crazy yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Any idea what is being predicted for the North shore of boston? more towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The Euro ens were a big deal too? They have been pinned near the BM since halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i think its great how you put that 6 inches of bdl snowfall is bs in your blog!! Maybe but probably has pingers for a lot of us too which is why I think a conservative call is good for now. There's a couple of things that could go wrong in this setup so that's why I think Harvey went on the conservative side of things and why I did as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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