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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah a work in progress. It's interesting though.. if you compare the main trough energy at 42 hrs to the 18z GFS at 48 hours, the NAM is considerably farther west and looks to be barreling northward. If you were to look at that alone I would expect the NAM to be well west of the GFS.

But that leading PVA/convection off the coastline already by 42 hrs prevents it from closing off and winding up

That is the problem with the NAM...a seal in Georges Bank will fart and it will consider that enough convection to alter the entire synoptic setup.

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This vort just east f ME there seems kind of odd..

nam_500_054s.gif

If you run the loop on this site you'll see where that comes from. Right now near the Baja there's actually 2 systems...one near the southern tip, one south of that. The NAM slings the slightly more northern one SSE collapsing it into the other and then as the m/l tightens up they get sheared/slung through the GOM to pop up again as these mini vorticies we all assumed were convectively induced. They still may be for that matter....but they then ride up along the SE coast, and stay disconnected from the main m/l. 100% that's what's messing up the systems development on this model and elongating the entire thing.

http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/wxp_images/eta212_00UTC/eta_c500_h03.gif

Loop it through manually, you can follow it all the way up and around.

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The EURO is more than that for many of us.

Maybe but probably has pingers for a lot of us too which is why I think a conservative call is good for now. There's a couple of things that could go wrong in this setup so that's why I think Harvey went on the conservative side of things and why I did as well.

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Maybe but probably has pingers for a lot of us too which is why I think a conservative call is good for now. There's a couple of things that could go wrong in this setup so that's why I think Harvey went on the conservative side of things and why I did as well.

You know what your gut tells you, but you have to play it conservative....I know the deal.

High-end MECS....I don't even view it as a tough call.

Pingers s of the pike....maybe even some up here.

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Maybe the bottom line take away here is the the globals have been pretty consistent and the NAM and GFS continue to be all over the place (at least the 0Z NAM so far). Does this NAM run really change anything at this point? I'm certainly no expert, but it does bring the precip shield back to the NW, say about 25 miles, whcih trends to the other models. Other than that, what's the difference?

BTW, OT, I know, but just dropped from 2 to -5 in the past 45 mins.

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Maybe but probably has pingers for a lot of us too which is why I think a conservative call is good for now. There's a couple of things that could go wrong in this setup so that's why I think Harvey went on the conservative side of things and why I did as well.

Even if it showed me getting 2' of powder, I'd still be reserved.

I see what the NAM is doing, but I dunno.

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The two steps up, one step back routine wrt to track/timing will give us a canal cutter when the storm finally reaches us on Saturday morning. :arrowhead:

I'm out. Keep up the good fight.

One storm this year will do that......hasn't happened yet if you discount last Tuesday's warm abortion.

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You know what your gut tells you, but you have to play it conservative....I know the deal.

High-end MECS....I don't even view it as a tough call.

Pingers s of the pike....maybe even some up here.

To be honest I'm amped about the storm I think we could all get a big hit if things fall into place. That said there are still some elements that are of concern so can't go crazy yet.

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i think its great how you put that 6 inches of bdl snowfall is bs in your blog!! :lol:

Maybe but probably has pingers for a lot of us too which is why I think a conservative call is good for now. There's a couple of things that could go wrong in this setup so that's why I think Harvey went on the conservative side of things and why I did as well.

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