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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco IV


Baroclinic Zone

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I'm not sure it's off it's rocker. We're not looking at a phase here really so if the vort max gets a bit more strung out and doesn't start sharpening off the coast this is the end result.

This is the euro maps scott posted earlier/rh but with a stronger eastern extension mucking it up.

It's actually not a bad trend, but I kind of figured tonights runs were going to bounce and the first one did. I think others may follow. Three pieces of energy involved, northern semi kicker, two main vm in the overall m/l low and the real southern (STJ almost?) skipping across Mexico.

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It's certainly strung out like its on crack.

It's strung out because when the 500mb shortwave leaves the mid atlantic it doesn't rapidly tighten up and spin a really strong mid level vortex. The GFS, for instance, at 18z goes crazy which seems overdone to me given the face there's not much phase at all and in fact 2 really short wavelength s/w's in the northern stream right behind it. I'd say the super-amped up GFS solutions look more wacky than the NAM.

The NAM not closing off a crazy 500mb low and deepening it and other models doing it is odd... normally it's the other way around.

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It's well NW.. not quite as far as I thought b/c that leading PVA is stringing out and the main trough energy never fully takes over..

But it is well NW of 18z.. the .25 line goes through southern VT, on the 18z it went through springfield. Now springfield is .5" or so

That it is. 0.75 qpf line hits the Pike. 0.5 through 63 hours to the NH border in NE MA. An improvement but still a work in progress.

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It's strung out because when the 500mb shortwave leaves the mid atlantic it doesn't rapidly tighten up and spin a really strong mid level vortex. The GFS, for instance, at 18z goes crazy which seems overdone to me given the face there's not much phase at all and in fact 2 really short wavelength s/w's in the northern stream right behind it. I'd say the super-amped up GFS solutions look more wacky than the NAM.

The NAM not closing off a crazy 500mb low and deepening it and other models doing it is odd... normally it's the other way around.

I think it may be because the NAM is feeling the tug of that southern/eastern system that rides around. It's interfering enough to cause problems on this run of the NAM.

It's the southern little spin coming south of the Baja now I think.

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It's well NW.. not quite as far as I thought b/c that leading PVA is stringing out and the main trough energy never fully takes over..

But it is well NW of 18z.. the .25 line goes to the SE corner of VT, on the 18z it went through springfield. Now springfield is .5" or so

It's NW of its previous run but for the most part this continues to be a much different solution than the global models are showing.

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It's NW of its previous run but for the most part this continues to be a much different solution than the global models are showing.

Yeah a work in progress. It's interesting though.. if you compare the main trough energy at 42 hrs to the 18z GFS at 48 hours, the NAM is considerably farther west and looks to be barreling northward. If you were to look at that alone I would expect the NAM to be similar to or west of the GFS.

But that leading PVA/convection off the coastline already by 42 hrs prevents it from closing off and winding up

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Yeah a work in progress. It's interesting though.. if you compare the main trough energy at 42 hrs to the 18z GFS at 48 hours, the NAM is considerably farther west and looks to be barreling northward. If you were to look at that alone I would expect the NAM to be well west of the GFS.

But that leading PVA/convection off the coastline already by 42 hrs prevents it from closing off and winding up

Yeah the GFS going berserk with with closing the 500mb low probably isn't totally right either. A solution in between is likely which probably is a good snowstorm for many of us.

My 3-6, 6-12 call stands :)

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NAM looks much much improved over the south. Unfortunately, the northern stream s/w swinging through the GL is more progressive, and shunts the storm east.

For those that think a later start time = longer duration, you are very very wrong

A later start time means that the northern stream wave has progressed further east over that span of time, and thus has less time until it bullies it out of New England.

Personally, I'd rather see this thing book it up the coast toward Delmarva, then slow as it pumps up downstream ridging.

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