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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco IV


Baroclinic Zone

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At 42 hours the low is around HSE and probably heading towards the BM. I believe Will early this morning suggested that would be the ideal track to keep many places all snow.

I have absolutely no doubt now that some of the fits we've seen/will see are convectively induced. Donkey radar and VV's have all the hallmarks of popcorn convective type precip through 42ish.

There's a big stink hole right around PHL...all models seem to now want to do this at least through the NAM 0z/18z others....as we wrap up the system.

I think if the other models have this s/w coming up from the eastern Gulf of Mexico we will have some headaches with this system in terms of ultimate placement.

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Eh, it's awfully strung out at 48 hours. Doesn't look awesome that's for sure.

Huge struggle going on and I think we will see it play out in the other models starting tonight. we're now starting to see that it's not just a phantom spinup on the NAM but there is something that comes across central Mexico later on tonight, rides throught he GOM and up over the Panhandle of Florida Tuesday. That kind of combines with some energy already in place and forms the eastern extension that elongates this low.

We'll see how the other models handle it, but it's the feature you can see coming ashore right now in western/southern Mexico.

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