moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 @54h the 0C 850 line goes from like New London, CT over to Plymouth, MA. That's as warm as the 850's get It's not a storm unless you can get some rain in good ol' NL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Did a NNE weenie throw out the 18z NOGAPS being more NW flag yet? lol I'm not feeling this one for up here. I think I get a little snow, but don't eclipse an advisory. I'm thinking 6-10'' to start here. Too far S and too fast to get a 1/12/11 caliber storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That gives me a bit of hope. 18-24 not so much. Any thoughts on the timing and when this thing peaks? My best guess is 6PM-6AM Wed night/Thurs AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not surprisingly the NAM is already tighter/more consolidated with the trough and a lower SLP through 12 hours already indicating it will probably trend NW towards the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Is the critical thknss 1540? Yes, but the ncep maps dont show that number which is very annoying, but they show 1520 and 1560 (both pretty useless...though 1560 will ensure that there is no snow until it cools) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 nam craps on 12hr WAA snows over nite tonite (wee hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes, but the ncep maps dont show that number which is very annoying, but they show 1520 and 1560 (both pretty useless...though 1560 will ensure that there is no snow until it cools) WTF kind of idiot programmed the lines to exclude the critical one....lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's not a storm unless you can get some rain in good ol' NL. Unfortunately yes.. I'm starting to think this will be my least favorite type of storm.. the type where I get rain but the ski resorts in central/northern VT don't get anything either. Pretty hard to do especially with a big storm like this. I'm just praying for it to trend one way or another.. anything but the Euro verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WTF kind of idiot programmed the lines to exclude the critical one....lol.... I don't know, but highly annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Did a NNE weenie throw out the 18z NOGAPS being more NW flag yet? lol I'm not feeling this one for up here. I think I get a little snow, but don't eclipse an advisory. I went 3+ last night... with the possibility for more, but noted that the jackpot would south and east of the area... Basically from Will's to Ray's... My personal feeling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you guys loop the H7 RH fields, the shape alone is a classic comma head and ccb look to it, right over sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Crazy modeling year. The first time in my memory when no one really trusted guidance completely for any one event until nowcast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you guys loop the H7 RH fields, the shape alone is a classic comma head and ccb look to it, right over sne. SREFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you guys loop the H7 RH fields, the shape alone is a classic comma head and ccb look to it, right over sne. scott what time is it looking like for the CCB action for say....BOS.....9z to 14z ? i assume this is when the majority of the snow is forecast to fall.....with taint concerns prior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Did a NNE weenie throw out the 18z NOGAPS being more NW flag yet? lol I'm not feeling this one for up here. I think I get a little snow, but don't eclipse an advisory. I feel the same way....feels like a 3-6 maybe 4-8 if it goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 OK guys, I'll be back on later, GL on the early 00z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Crazy modeling year. The first time in my memory when no one really trusted guidance completely for any one event until nowcast... You really cannot this year. Even the "better" models like the EC ENS have had a larger than normal margin of error on surface tracks at this stage. We've said it a million times, most of the time about now they've been around the BM and they all ended up west or the one east. -- NAM matches the 18z GFS now pretty well aloft. So we should have a useful solution unless it does the Le Freak at 36-42. Biggest diff between the two is the NAM is more aggressive with bringing down the northern s/w versus the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 it would appear the biggest fan fare will accompany the 12z runs tommorrow.....and see what the Gulf stream data has added. good nite will see what tommorrow modeling brings when i get home at noon! hopefully light weenie snows to set the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Something else to note, the GFS hinted a weak s/w near FL at 39...NAM has a decent complex there at 33. Ought to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 what the significance of the cold front on the HPC graph (messenger?) .....does this play any role Also HP seems settled nicely into quebec on the (day 3) map http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=3&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think this run may do the dirty deed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe this was covered already, if so I apologize. Below is the GYX AFD from 337PM - are they not following model trends? How can they possibly use the NAM and exclude the EURO - the run-to-run consistency with the NAM is awful for this event (thus far)? They blow my mind - don't even know why I bother to look. BOX, on the other hand, is typically quite objective and I find their AFDs to be informative and current. Thanks for the rant time - think DEEP POWDER THOUGHTS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 337 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011 MAIN WEATHER EVENT DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT TODAY...BUT STILL THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. NAM HAS LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. GFS BRINGS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EVEN HEAVIER WITH PRECIP. PLAN TO USE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODELS FOR FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. AFTER LOW PASSES TO THE EAST THURSDAY, SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS LATE THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 what the significance of the cold front on the HPC graph (messenger?) .....does this play any role Also HP seems settled nicely into quebec on the (day 3) map http://www.hpc.ncep....ay=3&fcolor=wbg I'll be honest I haven't followed the HPC graphics in years. -- NAM has an epic dry slot coming into the SE US as the system gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Its definitely a bit warmer in the mid-levels....trending toward the Euro. Its kissing the 1560 850-700 thickness along the S coast now. No suprise. Brian, what was your max depth in 2007-08...I think you may have beaten Ott and Mont.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like a huge hit on the way. Slower too. Snow barely makes it to NYC by 18Z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you guys loop the H7 RH fields, the shape alone is a classic comma head and ccb look to it, right over sne. SREFs? Very nice indeed Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At 42 hours the low is around HSE and probably heading towards the BM. I believe Will early this morning suggested that would be the ideal track to keep many places all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like a huge hit on the way. Slower too. Snow barely makes it to NYC by 18Z Wed. 18z nam didn't have snow into nyc until after 0z thrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No suprise. Brian, what was your max depth in 2007-08...I think you may have beaten Ott and Mont.... 43" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like a huge hit on the way. Slower too. Snow barely makes it to NYC by 18Z Wed. It's a mess offshore at 39, s/w that comes around from Florida really monkey's it up for a bit. No doubt there's that gap we talked about earlier that almost every 18z showed. Starting to wrap up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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