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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Did a NNE weenie throw out the 18z NOGAPS being more NW flag yet? lol

I'm not feeling this one for up here. I think I get a little snow, but don't eclipse an advisory.

I'm thinking 6-10'' to start here. Too far S and too fast to get a 1/12/11 caliber storm.

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It's not a storm unless you can get some rain in good ol' NL.

Unfortunately yes.. I'm starting to think this will be my least favorite type of storm.. the type where I get rain but the ski resorts in central/northern VT don't get anything either. Pretty hard to do especially with a big storm like this. I'm just praying for it to trend one way or another.. anything but the Euro verbatim.

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Did a NNE weenie throw out the 18z NOGAPS being more NW flag yet? lol

I'm not feeling this one for up here. I think I get a little snow, but don't eclipse an advisory.

I went 3+ last night... with the possibility for more, but noted that the jackpot would south and east of the area... Basically from Will's to Ray's... My personal feeling...

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Crazy modeling year. The first time in my memory when no one really trusted guidance completely for any one event until nowcast...

You really cannot this year. Even the "better" models like the EC ENS have had a larger than normal margin of error on surface tracks at this stage. We've said it a million times, most of the time about now they've been around the BM and they all ended up west or the one east.

--

NAM matches the 18z GFS now pretty well aloft. So we should have a useful solution unless it does the Le Freak at 36-42. Biggest diff between the two is the NAM is more aggressive with bringing down the northern s/w versus the 18z GFS.

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Maybe this was covered already, if so I apologize.

Below is the GYX AFD from 337PM - are they not following model trends? How can they possibly use the NAM and exclude the EURO - the run-to-run consistency with the NAM is awful for this event (thus far)? They blow my mind - don't even know why I bother to look. BOX, on the other hand, is typically quite objective and I find their AFDs to be informative and current.

Thanks for the rant time - think DEEP POWDER THOUGHTS :snowman:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

337 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011

MAIN WEATHER EVENT DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

NIGHT. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT TODAY...BUT STILL THERE

ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. NAM HAS LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF

THE AREA WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. GFS BRINGS THE

LOW FARTHER NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF IS

A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EVEN HEAVIER WITH PRECIP. PLAN TO USE A

BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODELS FOR FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE

CURRENT FORECAST. AFTER LOW PASSES TO THE EAST THURSDAY, SKIES

SHOULD START TO CLEAR IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS LATE THURSDAY WITH SNOW

SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.

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what the significance of the cold front on the HPC graph (messenger?) .....does this play any role

Also HP seems settled nicely into quebec on the (day 3) map

http://www.hpc.ncep....ay=3&fcolor=wbg

I'll be honest I haven't followed the HPC graphics in years.

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NAM has an epic dry slot coming into the SE US as the system gets cranking.

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