CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Why no faith in the Euro? Have faith but am certainly sweating a bit. Will wait 12z runs to get more concerned though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What a complete dissaster overnight for the US models, I think this is worse than the boxing day storm..Euro holds steady, and NAM and GFS completely go off their rocker..What the hell is going on?? I read some opinions, but this is beyond ridiculous. So if I look at the Euro, I get 12-18 inches of snow, NAM, a flurry, and GFS, an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 cool. thanks. joined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Besides MPM who is panicking? I'm not panicked but like Ryan said I'm sweating this one a little. I'll panic later when Sam checks in with the 2-4" call for NW Ma. / SW NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 any other possible big storms in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I haven't compared things to the models but looking at sat and radar it would appear 1. that clipper up on the Canadian plains is hauling 2. the storm in the gulf is looking quite healthy. I don't expect a big hit up here but I hope it is a good show for you folks to the SE of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 nice little teaser event this morning out there. Probably about an inch so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well after seeing everything this morning..and the Euro holding serve..I think 12-18 for all of interior SNE is a good call with lollis to 22-24 where banding sets up longer Let's remember this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The northern stream s/w on the GFS is a little stronger than what the euro depicts. It's doing two things it seems. 1) Compressing the height field to its east and not allowing the southern s/w to amplify and send the moisture nw. 2) Keeping the southern s/w rather tight and thus the qpf further se. It's something to keep in mind, but pretty tough to go against the euro and ensembles right now. You gotta take all these into consideration, however. Perhaps 12z is a compromise? We will see. I agree, With Euro and it ensembles, It has been rock solid for the last few cycles with just a blip thrown in, That is why the 0z run of the Euro held serve, If the Nam and GFS was on to something it may have waverd but it did not, I say ride it until proven otherwise........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Let's remember this Why wouldn't we? Euro supports it correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Why wouldn't we? Euro supports it correct? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Guess we'll find out if the Euro is back to invincible this event. My bet is that it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 lol I'll take that as a yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 HPC all on board with a big snow that goes up to me and into much of eastern ME. That's a good sign...and the track the low closely tucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 ?? +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What a complete dissaster overnight for the US models, I think this is worse than the boxing day storm..Euro holds steady, and NAM and GFS completely go off their rocker..What the hell is going on?? I read some opinions, but this is beyond ridiculous. So if I look at the Euro, I get 12-18 inches of snow, NAM, a flurry, and GFS, an inch of snow. I'm just going to add my two cents after reading what Scott and Ryan wrote just above this and agreeing. I don't feel any different, wait for the 12z. It just doesnt make any sense to get all worked up over the differences THIS year. There's no consistency in our models, there's been no right or wrong model consistently.....all we can do is go with the model that typically verifies the best but also acknowledge as Scott did there is room for compromise. I say that because the Euro even at 48-72 has not exactly been nailing the tracks of the surface lows. This isn't the year where we can say any one model is king. There's nothing we can do about it, there's no sense worrying about it, we just need to let it roll out at 12z. I do agree though, we have made excuses all year for the performance. We're in a totally different situation this time and the models (US) are still all over the place. RGEM too. The feature that is causing some of the mayhem is just off the coast into the NW bay of campeche now. There's no real drying with it, doesn't look all that significant to me but maybe it's going to be enough to combine with the other vm's and erupt a big, storm busting dry slot, who knows. All I'm saying is it's futile this year. Sit back, enjoy your coffee and donut, the kids, work or your commute because it just doesnt matter. We could see a reversal on the euro or a total reversal on the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What do folks think the Euro does at 12z today? We already know NCEP will jump NW..My guess is it holds close to 00z +- 25 miles +50 for a $1000 Alex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Besides MPM who is panicking? Don't worry--I'll panic for the whole board. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm just going to add my two cents after reading what Scott and Ryan wrote just above this and agreeing. I don't feel any different, wait for the 12z. It just doesnt make any sense to get all worked up over the differences THIS year. There's no consistency in our models, there's been no right or wrong model consistently.....all we can do is go with the model that typically verifies the best but also acknowledge as Scott did there is room for compromise. I say that because the Euro even at 48-72 has not exactly been nailing the tracks of the surface lows. This isn't the year where we can say any one model is king. There's nothing we can do about it, there's no sense worrying about it, we just need to let it roll out at 12z. I do agree though, we have made excuses all year for the performance. We're in a totally different situation this time and the models (US) are still all over the place. RGEM too. The feature that is causing some of the mayhem is just off the coast into the NW bay of campeche now. There's no real drying with it, doesn't look all that significant to me but maybe it's going to be enough to combine with the other vm's and erupt a big, storm busting dry slot, who knows. All I'm saying is it's futile this year. Sit back, enjoy your coffee and donut, the kids, work or your commute because it just doesnt matter. We could see a reversal on the euro or a total reversal on the others. Yeah I know, this just seems worse than before. You guys in MA, CT, and RI at least know you are getting something. Does anyone think the Euro is wrong? Most people really are showing strong dedication to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 HPC all on board with a big snow that goes up to me and into much of eastern ME. That's a good sign...and the track the low closely tucked. I was kind of surprised by some of the comments from some up this way last night of this storm not being much at all up here in NNE, I still think this will be a decent event, No jackpot as i said all along but a MECS storm with 6-12" not out of the question unless the euro has a total meltdown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I love the ride the X model comments... For this event so far a ride on each model would be like... Euro - aircraft carrier - steady and huge GFS - Kiddie ride at an amusement park - a few jolts and twists but generally on track NAM - Roller coaster from hell combined with a horror house GGEM - Precipitously tall roller coaster (too far west) that swings dramatically down but settles back to normal UKIE - for this event something between the euro and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Let's remember this Remember the Tolland! Nah, it doesn't have the same ring as Alamo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I love the ride the X model comments... For this event so far a ride on each model would be like... Euro - aircraft carrier - steady and huge GFS - Kiddie ride at an amusement park - a few jolts and twists but generally on track NAM - Roller coaster from hell combined with a horror house GGEM - Precipitously tall roller coaster (too far west) that swings dramatically down but settles back to normal UKIE - for this event something between the euro and gfs Actually, The NAM is like 5 cars off the track with multiple casualties......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Virtually every school in CT delayed this morning. Snowwwww. Posted this in the obs thread, Grandkids in Plainfield did not, yet yesterday they did putting them at the stop at the coldest hour of the day. Euro all the way bust or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The Canadian used to be a coast hugger. Now the 6Z RGEM it is in the same OTS camp with the US models. Doesn't seem to matter here either way, but WRT to SNE it does..... Why wouldn't we? Euro supports it correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 You guys want me to open a new thread since this one will be buried after 12z today? Start new? I'm on a roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Having this much spread in the models should not have anybody spiking balls in the endzone at the moment....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You guys want me to open a new thread since this one will be buried after 12z today? Start new? I'm on a roll. Roll it out Bob, At 12z prob won't even be able to keep up............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Beautiful snowglobe morning out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Having this much spread in the models should not have anybody spiking balls in the endzone at the moment....... +1 Still plenty of uncertainty. Will come around soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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