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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco IV


Baroclinic Zone

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What a complete dissaster overnight for the US models, I think this is worse than the boxing day storm..Euro holds steady, and NAM and GFS completely go off their rocker..What the hell is going on?? I read some opinions, but this is beyond ridiculous. So if I look at the Euro, I get 12-18 inches of snow, NAM, a flurry, and GFS, an inch of snow.

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I haven't compared things to the models but looking at sat and radar it would appear

1. that clipper up on the Canadian plains is hauling

2. the storm in the gulf is looking quite healthy.

I don't expect a big hit up here but I hope it is a good show for you folks to the SE of me.

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The northern stream s/w on the GFS is a little stronger than what the euro depicts. It's doing two things it seems. 1) Compressing the height field to its east and not allowing the southern s/w to amplify and send the moisture nw. 2) Keeping the southern s/w rather tight and thus the qpf further se.

It's something to keep in mind, but pretty tough to go against the euro and ensembles right now. You gotta take all these into consideration, however. Perhaps 12z is a compromise? We will see.

I agree, With Euro and it ensembles, It has been rock solid for the last few cycles with just a blip thrown in, That is why the 0z run of the Euro held serve, If the Nam and GFS was on to something it may have waverd but it did not, I say ride it until proven otherwise........

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What a complete dissaster overnight for the US models, I think this is worse than the boxing day storm..Euro holds steady, and NAM and GFS completely go off their rocker..What the hell is going on?? I read some opinions, but this is beyond ridiculous. So if I look at the Euro, I get 12-18 inches of snow, NAM, a flurry, and GFS, an inch of snow.

I'm just going to add my two cents after reading what Scott and Ryan wrote just above this and agreeing.

I don't feel any different, wait for the 12z. It just doesnt make any sense to get all worked up over the differences THIS year. There's no consistency in our models, there's been no right or wrong model consistently.....all we can do is go with the model that typically verifies the best but also acknowledge as Scott did there is room for compromise.

I say that because the Euro even at 48-72 has not exactly been nailing the tracks of the surface lows. This isn't the year where we can say any one model is king. There's nothing we can do about it, there's no sense worrying about it, we just need to let it roll out at 12z.

I do agree though, we have made excuses all year for the performance. We're in a totally different situation this time and the models (US) are still all over the place. RGEM too.

The feature that is causing some of the mayhem is just off the coast into the NW bay of campeche now. There's no real drying with it, doesn't look all that significant to me but maybe it's going to be enough to combine with the other vm's and erupt a big, storm busting dry slot, who knows.

All I'm saying is it's futile this year. Sit back, enjoy your coffee and donut, the kids, work or your commute because it just doesnt matter. We could see a reversal on the euro or a total reversal on the others.

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I'm just going to add my two cents after reading what Scott and Ryan wrote just above this and agreeing.

I don't feel any different, wait for the 12z. It just doesnt make any sense to get all worked up over the differences THIS year. There's no consistency in our models, there's been no right or wrong model consistently.....all we can do is go with the model that typically verifies the best but also acknowledge as Scott did there is room for compromise.

I say that because the Euro even at 48-72 has not exactly been nailing the tracks of the surface lows. This isn't the year where we can say any one model is king. There's nothing we can do about it, there's no sense worrying about it, we just need to let it roll out at 12z.

I do agree though, we have made excuses all year for the performance. We're in a totally different situation this time and the models (US) are still all over the place. RGEM too.

The feature that is causing some of the mayhem is just off the coast into the NW bay of campeche now. There's no real drying with it, doesn't look all that significant to me but maybe it's going to be enough to combine with the other vm's and erupt a big, storm busting dry slot, who knows.

All I'm saying is it's futile this year. Sit back, enjoy your coffee and donut, the kids, work or your commute because it just doesnt matter. We could see a reversal on the euro or a total reversal on the others.

Yeah I know, this just seems worse than before. You guys in MA, CT, and RI at least know you are getting something. Does anyone think the Euro is wrong? Most people really are showing strong dedication to it.

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HPC all on board with a big snow that goes up to me and into much of eastern ME. That's a good sign...and the track the low closely tucked.

I was kind of surprised by some of the comments from some up this way last night of this storm not being much at all up here in NNE, I still think this will be a decent event, No jackpot as i said all along but a MECS storm with 6-12" not out of the question unless the euro has a total meltdown... :snowman:

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I love the ride the X model comments...

For this event so far a ride on each model would be like...

Euro - aircraft carrier - steady and huge

GFS - Kiddie ride at an amusement park - a few jolts and twists but generally on track

NAM - Roller coaster from hell combined with a horror house

GGEM - Precipitously tall roller coaster (too far west) that swings dramatically down but settles back to normal

UKIE - for this event something between the euro and gfs

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I love the ride the X model comments...

For this event so far a ride on each model would be like...

Euro - aircraft carrier - steady and huge

GFS - Kiddie ride at an amusement park - a few jolts and twists but generally on track

NAM - Roller coaster from hell combined with a horror house

GGEM - Precipitously tall roller coaster (too far west) that swings dramatically down but settles back to normal

UKIE - for this event something between the euro and gfs

Actually, The NAM is like 5 cars off the track with multiple casualties.........

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