monroe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Shelton is not delayed, they figured out this is now NNE It is now. You've been moved back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Other than the ECMWF, is there any reason to believe that Maine may still have a shot of seeing some significant snow from this? Is there anything, other than the season trends, to support a possible jog NW? That's like saying, other than Toyota and Honda, is there any reason to think Japanese cars will make it in the USA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I understand what you're saying. Of course we are not part of their CWA. But, you and I both pay close attention to their AFD's for the good reasons we've frequently stated in this forum. They will typically have caveats (such as, "stay tuned" or "need to be monitored") when they anticipate changes could be in the offing. As we accurately use these as flags as to what will come to pass. I'm not saying that BOX's we in the westernmost zones will not get snow, but I'm being cautious. Like I said earlier, since you're further south than I, you have better reason to feel confident because I think this is a killer gradient. Oh--another HUGE red flag. Andy has not been here providing his insights. Andy hasn't spent much time in here most of the Winter, go to the upstate NY thread. I believe he said in his blog that the EURO was the preferred model. I was just outside to start the truck, it's snowing at a good clip with 3" down. It doesn't take much to get it to snow here. I don't think we'll have a problem reaching warning levels. Keep up the QPF vigil, I think by go time you'll be just fine Mike. Time to go play in the snow. Later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 sorry forgot I wasn't talking to hurricane people. Bay of Campeche. I was thinking...."he can't mean Bay of Campeche.." lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Somebody mentioned that yesterdays 12z runs were the biggest run of peoples lives, Well, I think that would have to be todays 12z rus as the american models did not get the text messages.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks better for you. Barry has 1-3" for Ray, Rope chair...... yeah even if you tossed the ncep runs the second half of this certainly looks more promising down here. one way or another i think there are some surprises coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's like saying, other than Toyota and Honda, is there any reason to think Japanese cars will make it in the USA? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Andy hasn't spent much time in here most of the Winter, go to the upstate NY thread. I believe he said in his blog that the EURO was the preferred model. I was just outside to start the truck, it's snowing at a good clip with 3" down. It doesn't take much to get it to snow here. I don't think we'll have a problem reaching warning levels. Keep up the QPF vigil, I think by go time you'll be just fine Mike. Time to go play in the snow. Later. Now this is a perfect post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I would say you have under 25% chance of making it back to BOS Wed evening. Euro is just too good to completely blow it. If it's in the 4-8 range at Logan I'd say it's a decent chance,depends on when it starts. Flight leaves at about 6pm and my bet is they will go unless it looks like a blockbuster. Logan's well into the groove now, going to take a biggie to shut it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks better for you. Barry has 1-3" for Ray, Rope chair...... What is he basing this on????? Solely the NAM???? That seems treacherous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Isn't it great when your Short Term discussion (for the event tomorrow/night) has this vote of confidence in it: FORECAST IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME (that's from Upton). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I would say you have under 25% chance of making it back to BOS Wed evening. Euro is just too good to completely blow it. you hit my worry on the head! My flight back from Buf would likely be cancelled, arriving 8pm. But the freakin Euro is the only one giving me a heavy storm (enough to get out of a piece of work). Gotta make the call this am...oh man a toughie. Sitting in a hotel in NYC reading the awesome thread from last night. If the Euro wins this one it even exceeds its former King status and win the award for comeback mode of the year which as of last week was going to be given to the nam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What do folks think the Euro does at 12z today? We already know NCEP will jump NW..My guess is it holds close to 00z +- 25 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What is he basing this on????? Solely the NAM???? That seems treacherous. It's not impossible to see the euro move a tick se, but even the gfs ensembles had 0.75" qpf or so up that way. It's a tough forecast because you could argue either way. Even the euro ensembles have a 40-50% chance of 1" qpf in 12 hrs for our area and south. That's dam good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 you hit my worry on the head! My flight back from Buf would likely be cancelled, arriving 8pm. But the freakin Euro is the only one giving me a heavy storm (enough to get out of a piece of work). Gotta make the call this am...oh man a toughie. Sitting in a hotel in NYC reading the awesome thread from last night. If the Euro wins this one it even exceeds its former King status and win the award for comeback mode of the year which as of last week was going to be given to the nam! If you can wait for 12Z, I'm confident we'll know much better. But Euro can't be this far off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's not impossible to see the euro move a tick se, but even the gfs ensembles had 0.75" qpf or so up that way. It's a tough forecast because you could argue either way. Even the euro ensembles have a 40-50% chance of 1" qpf in 12 hrs for our area and south. That's dam good. But 1-3 for Ray? What are the chances? I'd say under 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lots of early signs of bridge jumpers in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ride the euro until it says otherwise, Its not going to back down now....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lots of early signs of bridge jumpers in here. Not sure I see much sign of that at all. When all of interior SNE to BOS are digging out from 1-2 feet on Thursday...anyone who doubted will be shunned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you can wait for 12Z, I'm confident we'll know much better. But Euro can't be this far off... yes i agree. going to call and start the process of getting a replacement, hoping to hold off a final decision until 12z. WWJD? Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 But 1-3 for Ray? What are the chances? I'd say under 10%. Yeah I think the chance is low. 12z should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's not impossible to see the euro move a tick se, but even the gfs ensembles had 0.75" qpf or so up that way. It's a tough forecast because you could argue either way. Even the euro ensembles have a 40-50% chance of 1" qpf in 12 hrs for our area and south. That's dam good. If the northern stream looks like its trying to involve itself with the southern stream on the Euro would that not prevent it from "Kicking it" SE? Thats seems like part of the problem on the american models other then the elongated mess it creates over the mid atalantic that it kicks the low ENE out of here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Our own Turtle quoted on today's front page of the Globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Phil I see you've got your website on FB now. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Phil I see you've got your website on FB now. Nice. yeah. like it...even though its not relevant for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The SREF probs are pretty high for at least 4 from PA through SNE. Combine it with the Euro... I just don't get why anyone would panicking. Keeping an eye on possible bad trend... sure. But from an outsider perspective (i.e. someone who would be THRILLED with 6), I'd say you guys are in great shape. Not that anyone cares what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yeah. like it...even though its not relevant for you. I like it..and left you a comment too. I check your site out fairly often actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The SREF probs are pretty high for at least 4 from PA through SNE. Combine it with the Euro... I just don't get why anyone would panicking. Keeping an eye on possible bad trend... sure. But from an outsider perspective (i.e. someone who would be THRILLED with 6), I'd say you guys are in great shape. Not that anyone cares what I think. Besides MPM who is panicking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I like it..and left you a comment too. I check your site out fairly often actually cool. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If the northern stream looks like its trying to involve itself with the southern stream on the Euro would that not prevent it from "Kicking it" SE? Thats seems like part of the problem on the american models other then the elongated mess it creates over the mid atalantic that it kicks the low ENE out of here.... The northern stream s/w on the GFS is a little stronger than what the euro depicts. It's doing two things it seems. 1) Compressing the height field to its east and not allowing the southern s/w to amplify and send the moisture nw. 2) Keeping the southern s/w rather tight and thus the qpf further se. It's something to keep in mind, but pretty tough to go against the euro and ensembles right now. You gotta take all these into consideration, however. Perhaps 12z is a compromise? We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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