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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Other than the ECMWF, is there any reason to believe that Maine may still have a shot of seeing some significant snow from this? Is there anything, other than the season trends, to support a possible jog NW?

That's like saying, other than Toyota and Honda, is there any reason to think Japanese cars will make it in the USA?

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I understand what you're saying. Of course we are not part of their CWA. But, you and I both pay close attention to their AFD's for the good reasons we've frequently stated in this forum. They will typically have caveats (such as, "stay tuned" or "need to be monitored") when they anticipate changes could be in the offing. As we accurately use these as flags as to what will come to pass. I'm not saying that BOX's we in the westernmost zones will not get snow, but I'm being cautious. Like I said earlier, since you're further south than I, you have better reason to feel confident because I think this is a killer gradient.

Oh--another HUGE red flag. Andy has not been here providing his insights.

Andy hasn't spent much time in here most of the Winter, go to the upstate NY thread. I believe he said in his blog that the EURO was the preferred model. I was just outside to start the truck, it's snowing at a good clip with 3" down. It doesn't take much to get it to snow here. I don't think we'll have a problem reaching warning levels. Keep up the QPF vigil, I think by go time you'll be just fine Mike. Time to go play in the snow. Later.

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Andy hasn't spent much time in here most of the Winter, go to the upstate NY thread. I believe he said in his blog that the EURO was the preferred model. I was just outside to start the truck, it's snowing at a good clip with 3" down. It doesn't take much to get it to snow here. I don't think we'll have a problem reaching warning levels. Keep up the QPF vigil, I think by go time you'll be just fine Mike. Time to go play in the snow. Later.

Now this is a perfect post!

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I would say you have under 25% chance of making it back to BOS Wed evening. Euro is just too good to completely blow it.

If it's in the 4-8 range at Logan I'd say it's a decent chance,depends on when it starts. Flight leaves at about 6pm and my bet is they will go unless it looks like a blockbuster. Logan's well into the groove now, going to take a biggie to shut it down.

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I would say you have under 25% chance of making it back to BOS Wed evening. Euro is just too good to completely blow it.

you hit my worry on the head! My flight back from Buf would likely be cancelled, arriving 8pm. But the freakin Euro is the only one giving me a heavy storm (enough to get out of a piece of work). Gotta make the call this am...oh man a toughie. Sitting in a hotel in NYC reading the awesome thread from last night. If the Euro wins this one it even exceeds its former King status and win the award for comeback mode of the year which as of last week was going to be given to the nam!

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What is he basing this on????? Solely the NAM???? That seems treacherous.

It's not impossible to see the euro move a tick se, but even the gfs ensembles had 0.75" qpf or so up that way. It's a tough forecast because you could argue either way. Even the euro ensembles have a 40-50% chance of 1" qpf in 12 hrs for our area and south. That's dam good.

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you hit my worry on the head! My flight back from Buf would likely be cancelled, arriving 8pm. But the freakin Euro is the only one giving me a heavy storm (enough to get out of a piece of work). Gotta make the call this am...oh man a toughie. Sitting in a hotel in NYC reading the awesome thread from last night. If the Euro wins this one it even exceeds its former King status and win the award for comeback mode of the year which as of last week was going to be given to the nam!

If you can wait for 12Z, I'm confident we'll know much better. But Euro can't be this far off...

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It's not impossible to see the euro move a tick se, but even the gfs ensembles had 0.75" qpf or so up that way. It's a tough forecast because you could argue either way. Even the euro ensembles have a 40-50% chance of 1" qpf in 12 hrs for our area and south. That's dam good.

But 1-3 for Ray? What are the chances? I'd say under 10%.

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It's not impossible to see the euro move a tick se, but even the gfs ensembles had 0.75" qpf or so up that way. It's a tough forecast because you could argue either way. Even the euro ensembles have a 40-50% chance of 1" qpf in 12 hrs for our area and south. That's dam good.

If the northern stream looks like its trying to involve itself with the southern stream on the Euro would that not prevent it from "Kicking it" SE? Thats seems like part of the problem on the american models other then the elongated mess it creates over the mid atalantic that it kicks the low ENE out of here....

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The SREF probs are pretty high for at least 4 from PA through SNE. Combine it with the Euro... I just don't get why anyone would panicking. Keeping an eye on possible bad trend... sure. But from an outsider perspective (i.e. someone who would be THRILLED with 6), I'd say you guys are in great shape. Not that anyone cares what I think.

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The SREF probs are pretty high for at least 4 from PA through SNE. Combine it with the Euro... I just don't get why anyone would panicking. Keeping an eye on possible bad trend... sure. But from an outsider perspective (i.e. someone who would be THRILLED with 6), I'd say you guys are in great shape. Not that anyone cares what I think.

Besides MPM who is panicking?

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If the northern stream looks like its trying to involve itself with the southern stream on the Euro would that not prevent it from "Kicking it" SE? Thats seems like part of the problem on the american models other then the elongated mess it creates over the mid atalantic that it kicks the low ENE out of here....

The northern stream s/w on the GFS is a little stronger than what the euro depicts. It's doing two things it seems. 1) Compressing the height field to its east and not allowing the southern s/w to amplify and send the moisture nw. 2) Keeping the southern s/w rather tight and thus the qpf further se.

It's something to keep in mind, but pretty tough to go against the euro and ensembles right now. You gotta take all these into consideration, however. Perhaps 12z is a compromise? We will see.

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