weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No closings or delays in the state of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Are you suggesting ALY has not stuck a fork in it per their AFD? Or are you just dismissing their AFD? Since you're further south, you might have a better chance of getting in the EC heavier qpf. IFFFFFF there's a NW tick of that, it'll be a different story. But, I think that's a big if. I'm fully prepared for a modest event with significant bust potential on EITHER side. I'm suggesting that I'm not part of their CWA and that the vast majority of their FA probably won't see warning level snows. Also, it would appear they are weighting the GFS heavily in that AFD, not sure I would do that but I'm no Pro. The EC spits 1"QPF back to PSF. That combined with the fact that I reside on the EAST slope of the Berks and that I think a NW jog is fairly likely all lead me to believ I'll get a decent thump, ALB's AFD notwithstanding. In addition, the fact that BOX feels the threat is viable enough to post a WSW 36hrs ahead of the event also gives me reason to feel that there is a very good chance that warning level snows are likely. I don't think a NW tick is that big an if and even iF it doesn't occur, riding the EURO as I am, I'm in decent shape as it stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Say what you want but the 6z NCEP runs are most certainly concerning. Not going to change my 6-12 call for BOS/ORH/HFD but I have to say that I'm sweating a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Virtually every school in CT delayed this morning. Snowwwww. Wimpsssssssssssssssssssssssss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I didn't see Barry. But he forecasts for Boston. And the 0Z GFS/UKMET/ECWMF/GGEM gave us up to a foot or more. NAM gave 6-12. If he said it may miss, I would hope he said "there's always a small chance this could miss but..." He did say that... had a graphic with the Winter Storm Watch, one bullet saying it could go southeast. His snow map showed D-3 immediately Northwest of Boston to Manchester, 3-6 Boston to Cape Ann, and 6+ southeast to the Canal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wimpsssssssssssssssssssssssss. Totally embarrassing. Really. The kids here would never get to school if they played by the same rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Say what you want but the 6z NCEP runs are most certainly concerning. Not going to change my 6-12 call for BOS/ORH/HFD but I have to say that I'm sweating a bit. CMC GEM was no bargain either although not as bad. NAM was kind of a joke. I have a hard time buying not a flake for an event 2 days out that the Euro has over 1.5 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monroe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How much snow? Is this REALLY delay worthy? We have maybe an inch. Stopped now but looks like another batch on the way. I'm not sure how to answer your second ? I could be cynical and say the teachers just want to sleep in cause they are not going to be getting their 5% raises this year but my guess is it is insurance driven. This also hit at the perfect time to give a delay. If it started around 7am kids would be at school or on their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Say what you want but the 6z NCEP runs are most certainly concerning. Not going to change my 6-12 call for BOS/ORH/HFD but I have to say that I'm sweating a bit. Why no faith in the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 He did say that... had a graphic with the Winter Storm Watch, one bullet saying it could go southeast. His snow map showed D-3 immediately Northwest of Boston to Manchester, 3-6 Boston to Cape Ann, and 6+ southeast to the Canal He's definitely leaning NCEP vs the rest of the suite. Buy American. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 He's definitely leaning NCEP vs the rest of the suite. Buy American. I'd say so. Can't wait to see the 12z Runs. Have a good day everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 He did say that... had a graphic with the Winter Storm Watch, one bullet saying it could go southeast. His snow map showed D-3 immediately Northwest of Boston to Manchester, 3-6 Boston to Cape Ann, and 6+ southeast to the Canal Very hopeful sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wimpsssssssssssssssssssssssss. Don't thing you need to worry... WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTERFIELD...PLAINFIELD... WESTHAMPTON...WILLIAMSBURG...WORTHINGTON 425 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Except where my wife teaches in Ashford lol Shelton is not delayed, they figured out this is now NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How often has the EC shown a major storm by itself with all other gudiance S.E.? And verified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm suggesting that I'm not part of their CWA and that the vast majority of their FA probably won't see warning level snows. Also, it would appear they are weighting the GFS heavily in that AFD, not sure I would do that but I'm no Pro. The EC spits 1"QPF back to PSF. That combined with the fact that I reside on the EAST slope of the Berks and that I think a NW jog is fairly likely all lead me to believ I'll get a decent thump, ALB's AFD notwithstanding. In addition, the fact that BOX feels the threat is viable enough to post a WSW 36hrs ahead of the event also gives me reason to feel that there is a very good chance that warning level snows are likely. I don't think a NW tick is that big an if and even iF it doesn't occur, riding the EURO as I am, I'm in decent shape as it stands. I understand what you're saying. Of course we are not part of their CWA. But, you and I both pay close attention to their AFD's for the good reasons we've frequently stated in this forum. They will typically have caveats (such as, "stay tuned" or "need to be monitored") when they anticipate changes could be in the offing. As we accurately use these as flags as to what will come to pass. I'm not saying that BOX's we in the westernmost zones will not get snow, but I'm being cautious. Like I said earlier, since you're further south than I, you have better reason to feel confident because I think this is a killer gradient. Oh--another HUGE red flag. Andy has not been here providing his insights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wimpsssssssssssssssssssssssss. Nice post. That helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ?? Looks better for you. Barry has 1-3" for Ray, Rope chair...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The euro seems to have that subtle feature entering the BOC so that's good news. I'd be concerned if it somehow missed that given it's at least partly the reason the NCEP models have a strung out appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't thing you need to worry... WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTERFIELD...PLAINFIELD... WESTHAMPTON...WILLIAMSBURG...WORTHINGTON 425 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... I'm happy to see the watch. FYI, I'm in Western Franklin. Pete's in western Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Very hopeful sign. I would say you have under 25% chance of making it back to BOS Wed evening. Euro is just too good to completely blow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The euro seems to have that subtle feature entering the BOC so that's good news. I'd be concerned if it somehow missed that given it's at least partly the reason the NCEP models have a strung out appearance. BOC??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 All other guidance is not well SE. The GGEM, UKMET and GFS ensemble still bring a good hit (6-12") to the HFD-ORH-BOS corridor. How often has the EC shown a major storm by itself with all other gudiance S.E.? And verified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ?? Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One model held serve and the rest go SE, I said yesterday that we would probably see a jump NW on these models at 0z or 12z, Looks like it will have to start happening at 12z......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Other than the ECMWF, is there any reason to believe that Maine may still have a shot of seeing some significant snow from this? Is there anything, other than the season trends, to support a possible jog NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I really really really hope this thing shuts the city of Boston down. Snowmobiles to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BOC??? sorry forgot I wasn't talking to hurricane people. Bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Jerry...it's that little notch on the SW side of the WV pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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