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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Are you suggesting ALY has not stuck a fork in it per their AFD? Or are you just dismissing their AFD?

Since you're further south, you might have a better chance of getting in the EC heavier qpf. IFFFFFF there's a NW tick of that, it'll be a different story. But, I think that's a big if.

I'm fully prepared for a modest event with significant bust potential on EITHER side.

I'm suggesting that I'm not part of their CWA and that the vast majority of their FA probably won't see warning level snows. Also, it would appear they are weighting the GFS heavily in that AFD, not sure I would do that but I'm no Pro. The EC spits 1"QPF back to PSF. That combined with the fact that I reside on the EAST slope of the Berks and that I think a NW jog is fairly likely all lead me to believ I'll get a decent thump, ALB's AFD notwithstanding. In addition, the fact that BOX feels the threat is viable enough to post a WSW 36hrs ahead of the event also gives me reason to feel that there is a very good chance that warning level snows are likely. I don't think a NW tick is that big an if and even iF it doesn't occur, riding the EURO as I am, I'm in decent shape as it stands.

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I didn't see Barry. But he forecasts for Boston. And the 0Z GFS/UKMET/ECWMF/GGEM gave us up to a foot or more. NAM gave 6-12. If he said it may miss, I would hope he said "there's always a small chance this could miss but..."

He did say that... had a graphic with the Winter Storm Watch, one bullet saying it could go southeast.

His snow map showed D-3 immediately Northwest of Boston to Manchester, 3-6 Boston to Cape Ann, and 6+ southeast to the Canal

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Say what you want but the 6z NCEP runs are most certainly concerning.

Not going to change my 6-12 call for BOS/ORH/HFD but I have to say that I'm sweating a bit.

CMC GEM was no bargain either although not as bad. NAM was kind of a joke. I have a hard time buying not a flake for an event 2 days out that the Euro has over 1.5 qpf.

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How much snow? Is this REALLY delay worthy?

We have maybe an inch. Stopped now but looks like another batch on the way. I'm not sure how to answer your second ? I could be cynical and say the teachers just want to sleep in cause they are not going to be getting their 5% raises this year but my guess is it is insurance driven. This also hit at the perfect time to give a delay. If it started around 7am kids would be at school or on their way.

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He did say that... had a graphic with the Winter Storm Watch, one bullet saying it could go southeast.

His snow map showed D-3 immediately Northwest of Boston to Manchester, 3-6 Boston to Cape Ann, and 6+ southeast to the Canal

He's definitely leaning NCEP vs the rest of the suite. Buy American.

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Wimpsssssssssssssssssssssssss.

Don't thing you need to worry...

WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTERFIELD...PLAINFIELD...

WESTHAMPTON...WILLIAMSBURG...WORTHINGTON

425 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING...

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I'm suggesting that I'm not part of their CWA and that the vast majority of their FA probably won't see warning level snows. Also, it would appear they are weighting the GFS heavily in that AFD, not sure I would do that but I'm no Pro. The EC spits 1"QPF back to PSF. That combined with the fact that I reside on the EAST slope of the Berks and that I think a NW jog is fairly likely all lead me to believ I'll get a decent thump, ALB's AFD notwithstanding. In addition, the fact that BOX feels the threat is viable enough to post a WSW 36hrs ahead of the event also gives me reason to feel that there is a very good chance that warning level snows are likely. I don't think a NW tick is that big an if and even iF it doesn't occur, riding the EURO as I am, I'm in decent shape as it stands.

I understand what you're saying. Of course we are not part of their CWA. But, you and I both pay close attention to their AFD's for the good reasons we've frequently stated in this forum. They will typically have caveats (such as, "stay tuned" or "need to be monitored") when they anticipate changes could be in the offing. As we accurately use these as flags as to what will come to pass. I'm not saying that BOX's we in the westernmost zones will not get snow, but I'm being cautious. Like I said earlier, since you're further south than I, you have better reason to feel confident because I think this is a killer gradient.

Oh--another HUGE red flag. Andy has not been here providing his insights.

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Don't thing you need to worry...

WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTERFIELD...PLAINFIELD...

WESTHAMPTON...WILLIAMSBURG...WORTHINGTON

425 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING...

I'm happy to see the watch. FYI, I'm in Western Franklin. Pete's in western Hampshire.

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