MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Chuck em low chuck em high..chuck a foot long right into Eksters eye!! I'm allowing the Doc to guide the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm allowing the Doc to guide the way. If the EC and its ensembles lose on this it'll be a sad day for the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If the EC and its ensembles lose on this it'll be a sad day for the ECMWF. Absolutely, and I'm still a firm believer in a NW jog, though I understand the reasons behind why there may not be one. I do not think the final script has been written. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Seems like ALY has stuck a fork in this one. THERE ARE SEVERAL SIGNATURES TO THIS SYSTEM. FIRST THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A VERY SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN FIELD. ALL BUT THE ECMWF ARE IN THE SAME PLACE...SOUTH & EAST OF ALBANY. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE 1-2 INCH SNOWS 30-40 MILES NW INTO CAPITAL DISTRICT AND A TAD WEST OF THE OTHERS...BUT HAS SIMILAR QPF NUMBERS TO THE SE. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A "BULLET BURN" IN FCA. LARGE AREAS WILL GET NOTHING OR LIGHT SNOW...N EXTENT OF SNOW WILL BE BENNINGTON VT...ALB...DELAWARE CO NY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS A TAD NORTH OF THIS LINE REFLECTING THE ECMWF...WITH NOTHING FURTHER N. IMPACTS IN FCA WILL BE FROM ALBANY S & E AND EVEN THERE ITS A HIGH END ADVISORY EVENT WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS STORMS MAJOR IMPACTS WILL BE SOUTH OF FCA. WILL BLEND THE THREE MODEL QPFS. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO 12X. THERE WILL BE LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM SNOW GROWTH OR OTHER MESO SCALE FORCINGS. MOST AREAS N & W OF ALBANY WILL SEE LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW...WHILE AT THE TOP END THERE COULD BE 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. AFTER COLLABORATION W/TAUNTON...WILL HOIST A WS WATCH FOR LITCHFIELD. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Seems like ALY has stuck a fork in this one. THERE ARE SEVERAL SIGNATURES TO THIS SYSTEM. FIRST THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A VERY SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN FIELD. ALL BUT THE ECMWF ARE IN THE SAME PLACE...SOUTH & EAST OF ALBANY. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE 1-2 INCH SNOWS 30-40 MILES NW INTO CAPITAL DISTRICT AND A TAD WEST OF THE OTHERS...BUT HAS SIMILAR QPF NUMBERS TO THE SE. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A "BULLET BURN" IN FCA. LARGE AREAS WILL GET NOTHING OR LIGHT SNOW...N EXTENT OF SNOW WILL BE BENNINGTON VT...ALB...DELAWARE CO NY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS A TAD NORTH OF THIS LINE REFLECTING THE ECMWF...WITH NOTHING FURTHER N. IMPACTS IN FCA WILL BE FROM ALBANY S & E AND EVEN THERE ITS A HIGH END ADVISORY EVENT WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS STORMS MAJOR IMPACTS WILL BE SOUTH OF FCA. WILL BLEND THE THREE MODEL QPFS. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO 12X. THERE WILL BE LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM SNOW GROWTH OR OTHER MESO SCALE FORCINGS. MOST AREAS N & W OF ALBANY WILL SEE LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW...WHILE AT THE TOP END THERE COULD BE 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. AFTER COLLABORATION W/TAUNTON...WILL HOIST A WS WATCH FOR LITCHFIELD. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack Suslak Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Barry Burbank is on WBZ this morning and he still isn't buying the Storm saying it might shift south and sparing us a big hit, just woke up so didn't see overnight trends is storm still hitting New England or is Barry right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So it's looking like the R/S line has sagged SE some. Maybe we pick up, what, maybe 3"-4" on the backside even out here? Freezing rain could be problematic in extreme SNE also. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Man the 06z runs just don't give up the se nudge. Euro looked stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Beautiful Euro run. Let's hope the NAM is cut from the squad after this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The euro has a classic look at 700 over sne, just classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The euro has a classic look at 700 over sne, just classic. Yup just a monster for everyone in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yup just a monster for everyone in SNE Well it's pretty much perfect..lol. It will wiggle here and there from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yup just a monster for everyone in SNE BBBut, what about ALB sticking a fork in it and Barry Burbank not liking it? I don't know , the only model that shows a good storm is the EURO which has had the same solution for 80 runs. I'm not sure I feel comfortable only having the Euro on my side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BBBut, what about ALB sticking a fork in it and Barry Burbank not liking it? I don't know , the only model that shows a good storm is the EURO which has had the same solution for 80 runs. I'm not sure I feel comfortable only having the Euro on my side. Call me crazy..but I have a strong feeling we see a big jump NW with the 12z NCEP models today...It happens everytime..yet some folks just don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Call me crazy..but I have a strong feeling we see a big jump NW with the 12z NCEP models today...It happens everytime..yet some folks just don't get it +1 quadrillion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yup just a monster for everyone in SNE I'm gonna kiss the top o your bald head on Saturday... ...on second though, maybe not. Looks good for Weds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BBBut, what about ALB sticking a fork in it and Barry Burbank not liking it? I don't know , the only model that shows a good storm is the EURO which has had the same solution for 80 runs. I'm not sure I feel comfortable only having the Euro on my side. Are you suggesting ALY has not stuck a fork in it per their AFD? Or are you just dismissing their AFD? Since you're further south, you might have a better chance of getting in the EC heavier qpf. IFFFFFF there's a NW tick of that, it'll be a different story. But, I think that's a big if. I'm fully prepared for a modest event with significant bust potential on EITHER side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Craig Allen is buying into a snowy second half of the storm for NYC and the coast. He's holding off on accums right now but says it could be "significant". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Call me crazy..but I have a strong feeling we see a big jump NW with the 12z NCEP models today...It happens everytime..yet some folks just don't get it I've never wavered from that position. Though I would say it might not occur until 00z tonight. I do think in the end we'll see a good bump NW. Even so, as the EURO paints it my area gets1+"QPF, I'll take that and some serious upslope enhancement to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Virtually every school in CT delayed this morning. Snowwwww. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BBBut, what about ALB sticking a fork in it and Barry Burbank not liking it? I don't know , the only model that shows a good storm is the EURO which has had the same solution for 80 runs. I'm not sure I feel comfortable only having the Euro on my side. I didn't see Barry. But he forecasts for Boston. And the 0Z GFS/UKMET/ECWMF/GGEM gave us up to a foot or more. NAM gave 6-12. If he said it may miss, I would hope he said "there's always a small chance this could miss but..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Virtually every school in CT delayed this morning. Snowwwww. I an closing in on an inch. Which is a lesson. It snows where it wants to (Organizing Low). And while unscientific, it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Call me crazy..but I have a strong feeling we see a big jump NW with the 12z NCEP models today...It happens everytime..yet some folks just don't get it I'm very confident we'll have a big jump with the NCEP models. I am not at all confident we'll see a NW shift of the EC. I think at best it wil hold and not tick SE. The one caveat will be the extra data that will be incorporated in the 12z runs. What will the impact of that be. I suppose this would also be data that would be utilized in the 12z EC run, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monroe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We had 1/2 day scheduled today and now a 90 minute delay. Guess kids will ride to school and turn around and come home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WCVB JC Moynihan has much of Mass at 6-12. GC is 3-6, SE Mass 3-6 Cape 0-4 NE CT 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Virtually every school in CT delayed this morning. Snowwwww. So......why the delay? Anyone get more than in inch or 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We had 1/2 day scheduled today and now a 90 minute delay. Guess kids will ride to school and turn around and come home. How much snow? Is this REALLY delay worthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How much snow? Is this REALLY delay worthy? Connecticut schools ... snow ... 'nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How much snow? Is this REALLY delay worthy? Like an inch here... probably not but virtually every town thought it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Virtually every school in CT delayed this morning. Snowwwww. Except where my wife teaches in Ashford lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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