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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Seems like ALY has stuck a fork in this one.

THERE ARE SEVERAL SIGNATURES TO THIS SYSTEM. FIRST THE

NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A VERY SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN FIELD. ALL

BUT THE ECMWF ARE IN THE SAME PLACE...SOUTH & EAST OF ALBANY. THE

ECMWF PUSHES THE 1-2 INCH SNOWS 30-40 MILES NW INTO CAPITAL

DISTRICT AND A TAD WEST OF THE OTHERS...BUT HAS SIMILAR QPF

NUMBERS TO THE SE.

THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A "BULLET BURN" IN FCA. LARGE AREAS WILL

GET NOTHING OR LIGHT SNOW...N EXTENT OF SNOW WILL BE BENNINGTON

VT...ALB...DELAWARE CO NY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS A TAD NORTH OF THIS

LINE REFLECTING THE ECMWF...WITH NOTHING FURTHER N. IMPACTS IN FCA

WILL BE FROM ALBANY S & E AND EVEN THERE ITS A HIGH END ADVISORY

EVENT WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS

STORMS MAJOR IMPACTS WILL BE SOUTH OF FCA. WILL BLEND THE THREE

MODEL QPFS. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO 12X. THERE WILL

BE LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM SNOW GROWTH OR OTHER MESO SCALE

FORCINGS. MOST AREAS N & W OF ALBANY WILL SEE LITTLE ACCUMULATING

SNOW...WHILE AT THE TOP END THERE COULD BE 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN

LITCHFIELD COUNTY. AFTER COLLABORATION W/TAUNTON...WILL HOIST A WS

WATCH FOR LITCHFIELD.

Yawn.

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Seems like ALY has stuck a fork in this one.

THERE ARE SEVERAL SIGNATURES TO THIS SYSTEM. FIRST THE

NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A VERY SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN FIELD. ALL

BUT THE ECMWF ARE IN THE SAME PLACE...SOUTH & EAST OF ALBANY. THE

ECMWF PUSHES THE 1-2 INCH SNOWS 30-40 MILES NW INTO CAPITAL

DISTRICT AND A TAD WEST OF THE OTHERS...BUT HAS SIMILAR QPF

NUMBERS TO THE SE.

THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A "BULLET BURN" IN FCA. LARGE AREAS WILL

GET NOTHING OR LIGHT SNOW...N EXTENT OF SNOW WILL BE BENNINGTON

VT...ALB...DELAWARE CO NY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS A TAD NORTH OF THIS

LINE REFLECTING THE ECMWF...WITH NOTHING FURTHER N. IMPACTS IN FCA

WILL BE FROM ALBANY S & E AND EVEN THERE ITS A HIGH END ADVISORY

EVENT WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS

STORMS MAJOR IMPACTS WILL BE SOUTH OF FCA. WILL BLEND THE THREE

MODEL QPFS. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO 12X. THERE WILL

BE LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM SNOW GROWTH OR OTHER MESO SCALE

FORCINGS. MOST AREAS N & W OF ALBANY WILL SEE LITTLE ACCUMULATING

SNOW...WHILE AT THE TOP END THERE COULD BE 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN

LITCHFIELD COUNTY. AFTER COLLABORATION W/TAUNTON...WILL HOIST A WS

WATCH FOR LITCHFIELD.

Yawn.

:weenie:

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Yup just a monster for everyone in SNE

BBBut, what about ALB sticking a fork in it and Barry Burbank not liking it? I don't know , the only model that shows a good storm is the EURO which has had the same solution for 80 runs. I'm not sure I feel comfortable only having the Euro on my side.

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BBBut, what about ALB sticking a fork in it and Barry Burbank not liking it? I don't know , the only model that shows a good storm is the EURO which has had the same solution for 80 runs. I'm not sure I feel comfortable only having the Euro on my side.

Call me crazy..but I have a strong feeling we see a big jump NW with the 12z NCEP models today...It happens everytime..yet some folks just don't get it

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BBBut, what about ALB sticking a fork in it and Barry Burbank not liking it? I don't know , the only model that shows a good storm is the EURO which has had the same solution for 80 runs. I'm not sure I feel comfortable only having the Euro on my side.

Are you suggesting ALY has not stuck a fork in it per their AFD? Or are you just dismissing their AFD?

Since you're further south, you might have a better chance of getting in the EC heavier qpf. IFFFFFF there's a NW tick of that, it'll be a different story. But, I think that's a big if.

I'm fully prepared for a modest event with significant bust potential on EITHER side.

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Call me crazy..but I have a strong feeling we see a big jump NW with the 12z NCEP models today...It happens everytime..yet some folks just don't get it

I've never wavered from that position. Though I would say it might not occur until 00z tonight. I do think in the end we'll see a good bump NW. Even so, as the EURO paints it my area gets1+"QPF, I'll take that and some serious upslope enhancement to the bank.

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BBBut, what about ALB sticking a fork in it and Barry Burbank not liking it? I don't know , the only model that shows a good storm is the EURO which has had the same solution for 80 runs. I'm not sure I feel comfortable only having the Euro on my side.

I didn't see Barry. But he forecasts for Boston. And the 0Z GFS/UKMET/ECWMF/GGEM gave us up to a foot or more. NAM gave 6-12. If he said it may miss, I would hope he said "there's always a small chance this could miss but..."

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Call me crazy..but I have a strong feeling we see a big jump NW with the 12z NCEP models today...It happens everytime..yet some folks just don't get it

I'm very confident we'll have a big jump with the NCEP models. I am not at all confident we'll see a NW shift of the EC. I think at best it wil hold and not tick SE.

The one caveat will be the extra data that will be incorporated in the 12z runs. What will the impact of that be. I suppose this would also be data that would be utilized in the 12z EC run, yes?

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