ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Will, Are you expecting all rain for a time along the South Coast from Groton on east or...sleet? Any slight tick NW I suspect I'll torch to 35 with Rain. Yes, I think there is a good chance for rain along the SE coast of CT and S RI for a time...but those areas should flip to a heavy wet snow as the ULL passes underneath us and really intensifies the CCB...coinciding with ML temps crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes, I think there is a good chance for rain along the SE coast of CT and S RI for a time...but those areas should flip to a heavy wet snow as the ULL passes underneath us and really intensifies the CCB...coinciding with ML temps crashing. Thanks. Hopefully it doesn't track any farther NW because I have a serious case of snow envy with only 3 inches on the ground here. There's only so much you can do to manufacture big snow piles in your driveway when you're working with such little snow before your neighbors think you're crazy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cannae Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anyone see the SUNY MM5? And at 60 hours SNE is still getting pounded, so this would be added to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 03z SREF ticked back SE a shade. Maybe a few miles SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 03z SREF ticked back SE a shade. Maybe a few miles SE of the BM. We may see a sharper gradient with this one without the benefit of a good high.....won't be a ton of isentropic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro ensembles track it just inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 3/2 Moderate snow 1" new. I love when 40/70 spikes the ball 48hrs too soon. No deformation band for you sir.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 3/2 Moderate snow 1" new. I love when 40/70 spikes the ball 48hrs too soon. No deformation band for you sir.lol I spiked the ball 3 days ago.....I get huge snows either way. lol I didn't call for that....it was a hypothetical based on the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like another 06z sh**show by the NCEP models tonight...starting with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I spiked the ball 3 days ago.....I get huge snows either way. lol I didn't call for that....it was a hypothetical based on the GEM. Lol...Pete has a real fetish for making sure you don't get more snow than him in a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Doesn't even get close this run...what a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lol...Pete has a real fetish for making sure you don't get more snow than him in a storm. He can have the jackpot....just keep adding on. How were the ens relative to the OP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Doesn't even get close this run...what a joke. I don't even look.....some piranha queefed off Bermuda and it fooked it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 He can have the jackpot....just keep adding on. How were the ens relative to the OP... They were very similar to the OP. It has most of SNE in >1" of qpf too....with well over that amount in eastern areas. Pretty robust for inside of 60h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't even look.....some pirhana queefed off Bermuda nnd it fooked it all up. I looked for comic relief..it always pulls something out of it's a** at 06z...but that was even more of a turd than I could have imagined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I spiked the ball 3 days ago.....I get huge snows either way. lol I didn't call for that....it was a hypothetical based on the GEM. LOL, just kidding Ray, My Winter Weather internal clock went off so I got up and sure enough it's dumping and the Euro continues to be the model of choice, I'll take an 1+" QPF and put it to good work. All systems go. Have a shot at reaching 70" for the month here. Pretty fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Doesn't even get close this run...what a joke. I really thought it would start trending toward the Euro by now...but it keeps flip flopping. Just when it starts getting amped up, it has a total disaster run like this one. Pretty hard to take it seriously right now with the way the Euro and its ensembles have been nearly dead nuts for 3 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I really thought it would start trending toward the Euro by now...but it keeps flip flopping. Just when it starts getting amped up, it has a total disaster run like this one. Pretty hard to take it seriously right now with the way the Euro and its ensembles have been nearly dead nuts for 3 days now. It's been absolutely atrocious this entire winter...I can't remember any operational model flip flopping like the NAM has. NCEP needs to make some sort of change..it really is barely useful at this point for anything other than high resolution graphics and explosive QPF amounts that don't verify. It's also occasionally useful with temperatures when the pattern is completely mundane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I really thought it would start trending toward the Euro by now...but it keeps flip flopping. Just when it starts getting amped up, it has a total disaster run like this one. Pretty hard to take it seriously right now with the way the Euro and its ensembles have been nearly dead nuts for 3 days now. I'm sure Messenger will find a vort over Aruba to justify what it's doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lol...Pete has a real fetish for making sure you don't get more snow than him in a storm. LOl, I just remember a certain "you'll be smoking cirrus comment someone made". It left me emotionally scarred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LOl, I just remember a certain "you'll be smoking cirrus comment someone made". It left me emotionally scarred. I don't expect to compete with your area.....it's like a beer softball leaguer trying compete with a major leaguer.....different league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm sure Messenger will find a vort over Aruba to justify what it's doing. Found it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's been absolutely atrocious this entire winter...I can't remember any operational model flip flopping like the NAM has. NCEP needs to make some sort of change..it really is barely useful at this point for anything other than high resolution graphics and explosive QPF amounts that don't verify. It's also occasionally useful with temperatures when the pattern is completely mundane. It did very well in the Jan 12th storm leading the way for a much closer track...I know in your BY it had some flip flops of like 20 miles which made all the difference between like 6" of snow and 15"...but its hard to blame it on that tight of a gradient. But otherwise, its been pretty bad outside of that system. It was way too far E in the Boxing Day storm too. But given its massive flip flops and huge differences overall from the Euro/ensembles...its very difficult to take it seriously this time around. Continuity is something that is usually a flag in meteorology that a solution may be correct...especially for a more skilled model like the ECMWF....sometimes the GFS would have good continuity but be awful. That's where the use of ensemble forecasting comes in handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't expect to compete with your area.....it's like a beer softball leaguer trying compete with a major leaguer.....different league. Hey you got more than him in '04-'05....once in a while it happens, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Found it Nah, you have to string together 4 Twister RH maps, followed by QPF charts from every meso model known to man. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It did very well in the Jan 12th storm leading the way for a much closer track...I know in your BY it had some flip flops of like 20 miles which made all the difference between like 6" of snow and 15"...but its hard to blame it on that tight of a gradient. But otherwise, its been pretty bad outside of that system. It was way too far E in the Boxing Day storm too. But given its massive flip flops and huge differences overall from the Euro/ensembles...its very difficult to take it seriously this time around. Continuity is something that is usually a flag in meteorology that a solution may be correct...especially for a more skilled model like the ECMWF....sometimes the GFS would have good continuity but be awful. That's where the use of ensemble forecasting comes in handy. Yeah, I do remember it led the pack Jan 12. I never really complain about the mesoscale flip flops...those are to be expected with any model. But like you said, when you look at it generally throughout the winter..it's been terribly inconsistent. I remember 12/26 it came back west at 00z 12/25 but even at that point it still kept falling on it's ass and going east as the storm approached. The Euro and it's ensembles being so solid..along with the GFS pretty much make every case possible to toss this run right into the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nah, you have to string to gether 4 Twister RH maps, followed by QPF charts from every meso model known to man. lol I was about to say, I forgot the GIF loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't expect to compete with your area.....it's like a beer softball leaguer trying compete with a major leaguer.....different league. It's like Narnia here this year. It even snows when the stars are out. Snowing at a decent clip right now. Hoping to get 2-4" as an appetizer.. I like the EURO's steadfast modeling on this, if anything it's getting sweeter as we close in. Looks like everyone should get a good thump to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey you got more than him in '04-'05....once in a while it happens, lol. Right, but expecting it or even hoping for it is an exercise in futility.....he prob still killed me in depth and overall winter appeal that winter, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Its remarkable how the 06 and 18Z NAM runs almost always follow the same general biases when they do something unusual...the 18s are often extremely wet and the 06s are often very suppressed and dry...there have been two huge 06z runs inside 48 hours of an event in the last 13 months alone where the NAM whiffed clean up and down the coast on everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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