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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah this is some seriously exciting stuff... just when the 0Z American models were crapping out on us... "darkest before the dawn" type stuff. WOW !!!!

The threads for much of the northeast DC-Philly-NYC-CT-SNE are pretty lit right now! With this area and intensity, EURO showing MECS with shot at HECS.

Euro verbatim is a HECS for ORH to Ray's area back down to BOS and SW to N RI and NE CT. That's the area that gets >1.50" of qpf all snow and absolutely destroyed by the CCB. Mid-level low center and 5h track are just about perfect for that area.

I'd love to just believe this run verbatim and run with it, but still have some time to go.

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Euro verbatim is a HECS for ORH to Ray's area back down to BOS and SW to N RI and NE CT. That's the area that gets >1.50" of qpf all snow and absolutely destroyed by the CCB. Mid-level low center and 5h track are just about perfect for that area.

I'd love to just believe this run verbatim and run with it, but still have some time to go.

Do me a fav and get naked right now, whereever you are.

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The boss was here and pissed you redrew the schematics, back to the CAD computer laddie.

:lol:

Euro has been incredibly consistent going on 3 days now.

However, it's still what most folks would call an *outlier*

We'll see. 12z runs will get a nice injection of data from the Gulf, saying either, "put the weed away NCEP" or "Euro, you're mistaking all that white powder for snow"

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Euro verbatim is a HECS for ORH to Ray's area back down to BOS and SW to N RI and NE CT. That's the area that gets >1.50" of qpf all snow and absolutely destroyed by the CCB. Mid-level low center and 5h track are just about perfect for that area.

I'd love to just believe this run verbatim and run with it, but still have some time to go.

Seriously now, it's 48 to show time but really two more runs, this overall trend tonight of colder and more QPF is a dream night for SNERs.

If this pans out, shot hour will be modified to shot half hour . When I arrive in ORH I want to see the legends face as is stares at the beauty and depth.

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:lol:

Euro has been incredibly consistent going on 3 days now.

However, it's still what most folks would call an *outlier*

We'll see. 12z runs will get a nice injection of data from the Gulf, saying either, "put the weed away NCEP" or "Euro, you're mistaking all that white powder for snow"

Euro really isn't a ton different than the GEFS....its more juiced with the qpf but its track is fairly similar up here..maybe a hair more amped, but GEFS have been pretty consistent too with the Euro with some minor variations.

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Seriously now, it's 48 to show time but really two more runs, this overall trend tonight of colder and more QPF is a dream night for SNERs.

If this pans out, shot hour will be modified to shot half hour . When I arrive in ORH I want to see the legends face as is stares at the beauty and depth.

This run is ABSOLUTELY, DEAD-NUT PERFECT for me.....I even think I'd get some naked twister with the coastal front.

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Euro really isn't a ton different than the GEFS....its more juiced with the qpf but its track is fairly similar up here..maybe a hair more amped, but GEFS have been pretty consistent too with the Euro with some minor variations.

Mid levels are pretty well amped, and the orientation of the low is a little more favorable on the Euro. Are the 00z GEFS out yet?

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Euro verbatim is a HECS for ORH to Ray's area back down to BOS and SW to N RI and NE CT. That's the area that gets >1.50" of qpf all snow and absolutely destroyed by the CCB. Mid-level low center and 5h track are just about perfect for that area.

Im glad I stayed up for this run, as of now Im in a primo spot :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :snowman:

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With any potential ticks NW, we'll need to watch that nose of mid-level warming....I just peaked at 700mb temps on the Euro and they are pretty darn warm in SE areas and perhaps along the S coast....it has a nose of 700mb temps >0C actually getting into central NJ at 48h and then it translates NE to about ACK and MVY by 54h...but extrapolating in between thos hours might imply close call with SE CT and S RI....that is just 700mb...could be a little warmer down at 750mb or 800mb. The thicknesses are pretty high for a time.

This isn't to scare the daylight out of us or anything, but its a simple reality that needs to be dealt with if we are examining ptype. We can't purely go on the 850 temps...they are nice guide, but I usually like to clear the 850 0C isotherm by at least 15 or 20 miles before saying snow is the predominate precip type. A little further investigation into those 700mb temps kind of confirmed that...

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With any potential ticks NW, we'll need to watch that nose of mid-level warming....I just peaked at 700mb temps on the Euro and they are pretty darn warm in SE areas and perhaps along the S coast....it has a nose of 700mb temps >0C actually getting into central NJ at 48h and then it translates NE to about ACK and MVY by 54h...but extrapolating in between thos hours might imply close call with SE CT and S RI....that is just 700mb...could be a little warmer down at 750mb or 800mb. The thicknesses are pretty high for a time.

This isn't to scare the daylight out of us or anything, but its a simple reality that needs to be dealt with if we are examining ptype. We can't purely go on the 850 temps...they are nice guide, but I usually like to clear the 850 0C isotherm by at least 15 or 20 miles before saying snow is the predominate precip type. A little further investigation into those 700mb temps kind of confirmed that...

I think you and I have a bit of wiggle room.

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I think you and I have a bit of wiggle room.

Yeah probably about 30 mi or so...but just trying to point out potential ptype issues.

Even areas that taint with sleet are likely to get blasted for a time with the CCB, but it just might mean the difference between a total >12" and something a bit more tame.

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Yeah probably about 30 mi or so...but just trying to point out potential ptype issues.

Even areas that taint with sleet are likely to get blasted for a time with the CCB, but it just might mean the difference between a total >12" and something a bit more tame.

I think 50 miles of so it about the edge of the variance envelope form here on out. ....more likey w than e.

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Well this run was pretty amazing...but the only thing that is slightly sobering about it is that it won't get any better. That's about as good as it will get with this system at least for most of central/eastern MA, central/N CT and N half RI. So we shouldn't expect the Euro verbatim to verify.

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