ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah this is some seriously exciting stuff... just when the 0Z American models were crapping out on us... "darkest before the dawn" type stuff. WOW !!!! The threads for much of the northeast DC-Philly-NYC-CT-SNE are pretty lit right now! With this area and intensity, EURO showing MECS with shot at HECS. Euro verbatim is a HECS for ORH to Ray's area back down to BOS and SW to N RI and NE CT. That's the area that gets >1.50" of qpf all snow and absolutely destroyed by the CCB. Mid-level low center and 5h track are just about perfect for that area. I'd love to just believe this run verbatim and run with it, but still have some time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It can't come WAY NW at this point, but it could still def tick NW. That southern stream offset the northern stream some that run. It was pretty juiced up. Will have you looked out the window yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro verbatim is a HECS for ORH to Ray's area back down to BOS and SW to N RI and NE CT. That's the area that gets >1.50" of qpf all snow and absolutely destroyed by the CCB. Mid-level low center and 5h track are just about perfect for that area. I'd love to just believe this run verbatim and run with it, but still have some time to go. Do me a fav and get naked right now, whereever you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Will have you looked out the window yet? Yeah its snowing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The boss was here and pissed you redrew the schematics, back to the CAD computer laddie. Euro has been incredibly consistent going on 3 days now. However, it's still what most folks would call an *outlier* We'll see. 12z runs will get a nice injection of data from the Gulf, saying either, "put the weed away NCEP" or "Euro, you're mistaking all that white powder for snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WOW what a beaut of a run Clarke, sounds amazing, light snow today winter storm tomorrow another clipper this weekend, its like a dream as if I was in a snow globe and turned upside down for the winter. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 EURO gives me about 1.65" GFS about an inch. NAM .66" (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro verbatim is a HECS for ORH to Ray's area back down to BOS and SW to N RI and NE CT. That's the area that gets >1.50" of qpf all snow and absolutely destroyed by the CCB. Mid-level low center and 5h track are just about perfect for that area. I'd love to just believe this run verbatim and run with it, but still have some time to go. Seriously now, it's 48 to show time but really two more runs, this overall trend tonight of colder and more QPF is a dream night for SNERs. If this pans out, shot hour will be modified to shot half hour . When I arrive in ORH I want to see the legends face as is stares at the beauty and depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro has been incredibly consistent going on 3 days now. However, it's still what most folks would call an *outlier* We'll see. 12z runs will get a nice injection of data from the Gulf, saying either, "put the weed away NCEP" or "Euro, you're mistaking all that white powder for snow" Euro really isn't a ton different than the GEFS....its more juiced with the qpf but its track is fairly similar up here..maybe a hair more amped, but GEFS have been pretty consistent too with the Euro with some minor variations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Seriously now, it's 48 to show time but really two more runs, this overall trend tonight of colder and more QPF is a dream night for SNERs. If this pans out, shot hour will be modified to shot half hour . When I arrive in ORH I want to see the legends face as is stares at the beauty and depth. This run is ABSOLUTELY, DEAD-NUT PERFECT for me.....I even think I'd get some naked twister with the coastal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This run is ABSOLUTELY, DEAD-NUT PERFECT for me.....I even think I'd get some naked twister with the coastal front. I'd throw in a jackpot of 27 IYBY or nearby with this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'd throw in a jackpot of 27 IYBY or nearby with this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro really isn't a ton different than the GEFS....its more juiced with the qpf but its track is fairly similar up here..maybe a hair more amped, but GEFS have been pretty consistent too with the Euro with some minor variations. Mid levels are pretty well amped, and the orientation of the low is a little more favorable on the Euro. Are the 00z GEFS out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm sure that reporter in Wilmington will come in with 34. That 27 will seem pretty conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Mid levels are pretty well amped, and the orientation of the low is a little more favorable on the Euro. Are the 00z GEFS out yet? Yeah they take it directly over the BM...a bit NW of 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah they take it directly over the BM...a bit NW of 18z GEFS. Cool, thanks! Ray is just perfectly positioned right now. He's got the best chance for 12+" and surely a shot at 18+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Cool, thanks! Ray is just perfectly positioned right now. He's got the best chance for 12+" and surely a shot at 18+" Surely a shot at 2 feet. There will def be jackpots well higher than 18 with this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Alright, bedtime Here's to drastic hair-raising bread-and-milk-aisle-clearing changes at 12z from NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Expecting some sleet here(just north of the Merritt). But overall trends have definitely improved, especially considering that not too long ago the sleet line was all the way up in the CT/MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro verbatim is a HECS for ORH to Ray's area back down to BOS and SW to N RI and NE CT. That's the area that gets >1.50" of qpf all snow and absolutely destroyed by the CCB. Mid-level low center and 5h track are just about perfect for that area. Im glad I stayed up for this run, as of now Im in a primo spot :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With any potential ticks NW, we'll need to watch that nose of mid-level warming....I just peaked at 700mb temps on the Euro and they are pretty darn warm in SE areas and perhaps along the S coast....it has a nose of 700mb temps >0C actually getting into central NJ at 48h and then it translates NE to about ACK and MVY by 54h...but extrapolating in between thos hours might imply close call with SE CT and S RI....that is just 700mb...could be a little warmer down at 750mb or 800mb. The thicknesses are pretty high for a time. This isn't to scare the daylight out of us or anything, but its a simple reality that needs to be dealt with if we are examining ptype. We can't purely go on the 850 temps...they are nice guide, but I usually like to clear the 850 0C isotherm by at least 15 or 20 miles before saying snow is the predominate precip type. A little further investigation into those 700mb temps kind of confirmed that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With any potential ticks NW, we'll need to watch that nose of mid-level warming....I just peaked at 700mb temps on the Euro and they are pretty darn warm in SE areas and perhaps along the S coast....it has a nose of 700mb temps >0C actually getting into central NJ at 48h and then it translates NE to about ACK and MVY by 54h...but extrapolating in between thos hours might imply close call with SE CT and S RI....that is just 700mb...could be a little warmer down at 750mb or 800mb. The thicknesses are pretty high for a time. This isn't to scare the daylight out of us or anything, but its a simple reality that needs to be dealt with if we are examining ptype. We can't purely go on the 850 temps...they are nice guide, but I usually like to clear the 850 0C isotherm by at least 15 or 20 miles before saying snow is the predominate precip type. A little further investigation into those 700mb temps kind of confirmed that... I think you and I have a bit of wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm sure that reporter in Wilmington will come in with 34. That 27 will seem pretty conservative The good news is that you guys will know the truth because I will call it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think you and I have a bit of wiggle room. Yeah probably about 30 mi or so...but just trying to point out potential ptype issues. Even areas that taint with sleet are likely to get blasted for a time with the CCB, but it just might mean the difference between a total >12" and something a bit more tame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah probably about 30 mi or so...but just trying to point out potential ptype issues. Even areas that taint with sleet are likely to get blasted for a time with the CCB, but it just might mean the difference between a total >12" and something a bit more tame. I think 50 miles of so it about the edge of the variance envelope form here on out. ....more likey w than e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What do you think Bouchard saw at 11:30 to mention potentially upping his totals in your area Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What do you think Bouchard saw at 11:30 to mention potentially upping his totals in your area Ray? 12z EURO.....he was waiting to see it hold serve and rest assured, I'll be 15-20" tmw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well this run was pretty amazing...but the only thing that is slightly sobering about it is that it won't get any better. That's about as good as it will get with this system at least for most of central/eastern MA, central/N CT and N half RI. So we shouldn't expect the Euro verbatim to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Will, Are you expecting all rain for a time along the South Coast from Groton on east or...sleet? Any slight tick NW I suspect I'll torch to 35 with Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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