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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco IV


Baroclinic Zone

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I wasn't looking at the detailed vorticity maps that you posted...so I will concede that it's there on the GFS. It was also there on the 12z GFS. However, it is clearly not affecting the the low position nearly as much as we are seeing on the NAM.

It's really weak anyway Nick and I'm skeptical for your reasons/grid reach etc. But the features are real per water vapor...and as they come into focus they are playing a part...kind of cool isn't it in a way? Focus has been on the m/l when one key player is down in Cabo with the Dos Equis' guy.

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This is going to be one tricky forecast, it seems that the majority of our snowfall totals may derive from the development of the CCB...we all know how those are, I could see some serious gradients with this one...a few lucky spots getting like 12-14'' while spots not too far away squeak out 6-8''.

Going to wait until the 12z runs tomorrow before making a call but definitely not going to go for anything too crazy.

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Not looking at QFP, I'd say the GFS has the appeal of a 6-12"er.....with hiighest amounts se of me in the I 95 corridor.

Nice event....not the EURO.

Truth maybe in the middle.

maybe we finally get into one of those 700mb deformation bands on the west side of the system lol...that's where the jackpots have been with the last three storms.

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maybe we finally get into one of those 700mb deformation bands on the west side of the system lol...that's where the jackpots have been with the last three storms.

After looking at QPF, it's about exactly as I thought....6-12", highest se.

I agree, Nick......we know the drill about the nw extent of QPF.

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I'm having trouble with the 2 part thing. I don't know...I understand how it could happen, but not sure I buy it yet.

To be honest, I think it took a step towards the euro with a developing CCB as compared to 18z. It may a little late to the party and quicker to leave, but it forms a nice looking CCB Wed Night.

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