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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Look at the RGEM 48h vs the GGEM 60.

It's not even close in what it's done, where it's going. It's going to be a fragmented two part system like the NAM and IMO the bagginess extends south of the BM this run.

Tip might be right, maybe it's convective feedback, but the feature in Mexico is there....and that's what tracks up and around.

Instead of a tighter 994, the RGEM which is so often stronger is an elongated 996 that's produced a lot less precipitation ending 0z versus the old GGEM.

Just my comments on this model, and the NAM. Let the globals roll.

I was simply pointing out the what I consider large difference in the ULL...enormous and should lead to a much more robust solution imho.

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I know everyone has been bashing the NAM today. But there IS a NW trend going on with it, whether you like it (Dryslot) or not (Messenger) and it doesn't seem like its going to stop anytime soon. Fact not Opinion. While the Euro has come SE a bit, Its still throwing over an 1" of QPF out in CNE and GC and has arguably been the most steadfast model in this situation. The trending that is occurring right now seems like the NAM and GFS is trending towards the Euro, rather than the Euro trending towards the NAM and the GFS. The NAM and GFS moved a good 100 miles NW today (NAM more like 200 miles) while the Euro moved only 25-50 miles. Although that would seem like a convergence between the 3 models, it really isn't.

It seems like we are only like 24-36 hours out right now since we have been following this since last thursday, but we are still 48-60 hours out. This is when the NW has really started with the major storms that have hit. I'd expect a full charge NW with this storm for the next couple runs only to stop and then come back a little NW around 12 hours out. It has been the trend all year. People might say that this is a different setup. Arguably all storms have different setups and they have all done the same thing 48-60 hours out. Trend NW. Look at that storm before the Boxing day storm for instance! Theme of the Winter. Fact not Opinion.

It may happen that this does split into two sections of heavy precip. Who says those both don't trend NW as well over the next 48 hours? Just a thought...

Until we see something different this we should honor it with this storm as well.

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I was simply pointing out the what I consider large difference in the ULL...enormous and should lead to a much more robust solution imho.

Not disagreeing it's stronger for sure. But the general theme is the same I think.

Lol, just caught that - buuuut, it's know to science the seals don't fart haha

Where does it cross from legitimate feature to feedback in your opinion? Is there a specific timeframe?

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I know everyone has been bashing the NAM today. But there IS a NW trend going on with it, whether you like it (Dryslot) or not (Messenger) and it doesn't seem like its going to stop anytime soon. Fact not Opinion. While the Euro has come SE a bit, Its still throwing over an 1" of QPF out in CNE and GC and has arguably been the most steadfast model in this situation. The trending that is occurring right now seems like the NAM and GFS is trending towards the Euro, rather than the Euro trending towards the NAM and the GFS. The NAM and GFS moved a good 100 miles NW today (NAM more like 200 miles) while the Euro moved only 25-50 miles. Although that would seem like a convergence between the 3 models, it really isn't.

It seems like we are only like 24-36 hours out right now since we have been following this since last thursday, but we are still 48-60 hours out. This is when the NW has really started with the major storms that have hit. I'd expect a full charge NW with this storm for the next couple runs only to stop and then come back a little NW around 12 hours out. It has been the trend all year. People might say that this is a different setup. Arguably all storms have different setups and they have all done the same thing 48-60 hours out. Trend NW. Look at that storm before the Boxing day storm for instance! Theme of the Winter. Fact not Opinion.

It may happen that this does split into two sections of heavy precip. Who says those both don't trend NW as well over the next 48 hours? Just a thought...

Until we see something different this we should honor it with this storm as well.

Felger and I demand royalties.

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The GFS does not have that feature coming out of central MX that the NAM has. That feature along with convective feedback with that feature is causing the strung out nature of the system on the NAM. I have a tough time believing that the NAM is finding something real over the GFS when it is right on the spacial boundary of the model where problems can creep in.

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The evolution on the SREFs is possible too. I could see somewhat if a lull or let up in precip intensity, and then as the ULL approaches and enhances mid level frontogenesis...qpf will blossom in an arc over sne. I could see that happening. The good news is that sne appears to be in a good area for comma head action and associated mid level deformation and frontogenesis. This may aid in qpf development.

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The GFS does not have that feature coming out of central MX that the NAM has. That feature along with convective feedback with that feature is causing the strung out nature of the system on the NAM. I have a tough time believing that the NAM is finding something real over the GFS when it is right on the spacial boundary of the model where problems can creep in.

I think the GFS does have it. It's tough to see in the existing maps, but its' there I'm fairly certain. It's on the water vapor, and on the maps.

Theres so many changes on this run of the GFS i'm trying to figure out is it speed, is it the introducution of this feature etc.

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I think the GFS does have it. It's tough to see in the existing maps, but its' there I'm fairly certain. It's on the water vapor, and on the maps.

Theres so many changes on this run of the GFS i'm trying to figure out is it speed, is it the introducution of this feature etc.

I wasn't looking at the detailed vorticity maps that you posted...so I will concede that it's there on the GFS. It was also there on the 12z GFS. However, it is clearly not affecting the the low position nearly as much as we are seeing on the NAM.

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