40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's convective feedback - toss that appeal. It won't likely happen. Exactly....happens all the time when the NAM sniffs out the seal brand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Look at the RGEM 48h vs the GGEM 60. It's not even close in what it's done, where it's going. It's going to be a fragmented two part system like the NAM and IMO the bagginess extends south of the BM this run. Tip might be right, maybe it's convective feedback, but the feature in Mexico is there....and that's what tracks up and around. Instead of a tighter 994, the RGEM which is so often stronger is an elongated 996 that's produced a lot less precipitation ending 0z versus the old GGEM. Just my comments on this model, and the NAM. Let the globals roll. I was simply pointing out the what I consider large difference in the ULL...enormous and should lead to a much more robust solution imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Exactly....happens all the time when the NAM sniffs out the seal brand. Lol, just caught that - buuuut, it's know to science the seals don't fart haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lol, just caught that - buuuut, it's know to science the seals don't fart haha Well, surely some sort of aquatic life does and did because the NAM was all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I know everyone has been bashing the NAM today. But there IS a NW trend going on with it, whether you like it (Dryslot) or not (Messenger) and it doesn't seem like its going to stop anytime soon. Fact not Opinion. While the Euro has come SE a bit, Its still throwing over an 1" of QPF out in CNE and GC and has arguably been the most steadfast model in this situation. The trending that is occurring right now seems like the NAM and GFS is trending towards the Euro, rather than the Euro trending towards the NAM and the GFS. The NAM and GFS moved a good 100 miles NW today (NAM more like 200 miles) while the Euro moved only 25-50 miles. Although that would seem like a convergence between the 3 models, it really isn't. It seems like we are only like 24-36 hours out right now since we have been following this since last thursday, but we are still 48-60 hours out. This is when the NW has really started with the major storms that have hit. I'd expect a full charge NW with this storm for the next couple runs only to stop and then come back a little NW around 12 hours out. It has been the trend all year. People might say that this is a different setup. Arguably all storms have different setups and they have all done the same thing 48-60 hours out. Trend NW. Look at that storm before the Boxing day storm for instance! Theme of the Winter. Fact not Opinion. It may happen that this does split into two sections of heavy precip. Who says those both don't trend NW as well over the next 48 hours? Just a thought... Until we see something different this we should honor it with this storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I was simply pointing out the what I consider large difference in the ULL...enormous and should lead to a much more robust solution imho. Not disagreeing it's stronger for sure. But the general theme is the same I think. Lol, just caught that - buuuut, it's know to science the seals don't fart haha Where does it cross from legitimate feature to feedback in your opinion? Is there a specific timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 gfs has started let the fun start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I know everyone has been bashing the NAM today. But there IS a NW trend going on with it, whether you like it (Dryslot) or not (Messenger) and it doesn't seem like its going to stop anytime soon. Fact not Opinion. While the Euro has come SE a bit, Its still throwing over an 1" of QPF out in CNE and GC and has arguably been the most steadfast model in this situation. The trending that is occurring right now seems like the NAM and GFS is trending towards the Euro, rather than the Euro trending towards the NAM and the GFS. The NAM and GFS moved a good 100 miles NW today (NAM more like 200 miles) while the Euro moved only 25-50 miles. Although that would seem like a convergence between the 3 models, it really isn't. It seems like we are only like 24-36 hours out right now since we have been following this since last thursday, but we are still 48-60 hours out. This is when the NW has really started with the major storms that have hit. I'd expect a full charge NW with this storm for the next couple runs only to stop and then come back a little NW around 12 hours out. It has been the trend all year. People might say that this is a different setup. Arguably all storms have different setups and they have all done the same thing 48-60 hours out. Trend NW. Look at that storm before the Boxing day storm for instance! Theme of the Winter. Fact not Opinion. It may happen that this does split into two sections of heavy precip. Who says those both don't trend NW as well over the next 48 hours? Just a thought... Until we see something different this we should honor it with this storm as well. Felger and I demand royalties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Felger and I demand royalties. Same mindset... scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Couple off the local people going with the 2 part theory. Kevin L buying the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Same mindset... scary I know...I love Felger....we think just alike....tell it how the fu** it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How's Uncle C looking at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Couple off the local people going with the 2 part theory. Kevin L buying the 18z GFS. Yep, saw that. Some are buying into the two parter now. We shall see how the rest of the suite goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Couple off the local people going with the 2 part theory. Kevin L buying the 18z GFS. He'll be slamming weenies off the walls of the studio, begging the rev for foregivness by tmw night's broadcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS now highlighting the features coming up through the GOM. Actually faster with the dryslot through about 24 than the NAM. I don't think it's convective feedback, I think it's a real feature. How much of a role it plays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 98.5 The Weaher Hub with Will and Ekster from 10-2, then Kev and Messengeratti from 2-6, and finally the D Ray show at 6pm. Only on 98.5, The Weather Hub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The GFS does not have that feature coming out of central MX that the NAM has. That feature along with convective feedback with that feature is causing the strung out nature of the system on the NAM. I have a tough time believing that the NAM is finding something real over the GFS when it is right on the spacial boundary of the model where problems can creep in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The evolution on the SREFs is possible too. I could see somewhat if a lull or let up in precip intensity, and then as the ULL approaches and enhances mid level frontogenesis...qpf will blossom in an arc over sne. I could see that happening. The good news is that sne appears to be in a good area for comma head action and associated mid level deformation and frontogenesis. This may aid in qpf development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Through hr 36 is similar to the EURO down south, but it is noticeably faster and with n stream and more aggresively digging it s. This will not be the EURO because of that n stream kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 looks a tad cooler at 1000-500mb thickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS looks to be digging very nicely at 30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It seems a hair less amplified than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 98.5 The Weaher Hub with Will and Ekster from 10-2, then Kev and Messengeratti from 2-6, and finally the D Ray show at 6pm. Only on 98.5, The Weather Hub. sig worthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The GFS does not have that feature coming out of central MX that the NAM has. That feature along with convective feedback with that feature is causing the strung out nature of the system on the NAM. I have a tough time believing that the NAM is finding something real over the GFS when it is right on the spacial boundary of the model where problems can creep in. I think the GFS does have it. It's tough to see in the existing maps, but its' there I'm fairly certain. It's on the water vapor, and on the maps. Theres so many changes on this run of the GFS i'm trying to figure out is it speed, is it the introducution of this feature etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It seems a hair less amplified than 18z. I knew at hr 36 this run blew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This run is definitely less amped...that northern stream disturbance is suppressing the heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This run is definitely less amped...that northern stream disturbance is suppressing the heights Exactly....the n stream ruins it ont he GFS.....I still side witht he EURO, but now I am getting nervous. We'll have to hope the king doesn't blink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think the GFS does have it. It's tough to see in the existing maps, but its' there I'm fairly certain. It's on the water vapor, and on the maps. Theres so many changes on this run of the GFS i'm trying to figure out is it speed, is it the introducution of this feature etc. I wasn't looking at the detailed vorticity maps that you posted...so I will concede that it's there on the GFS. It was also there on the 12z GFS. However, it is clearly not affecting the the low position nearly as much as we are seeing on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's all about the N stream imo....the EURO hangs it back and the GFS drives it in....they are similar with respect to the stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At 54 hours it is dead nuts on the BM....984...dead nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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