Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Previous Discussion Thread Models appear to be locking into a BM or a hair NW strorm track. This would traditionally be a snowy track fpr most of us but due to a retreating H and lack of blocking, it could be a wintry mess for a lot of us. Best shot for an all snow event are in the interior. Hopefully tonight's model runs will shed some light on some of the outstanding issues wrt to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This seems about right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If it truly goes over the benchmark, most of us will be in good shape with nearly all frozen and/or freezing rain. A windswept rain would be a real slap in the face after an arctic outbreak like this, but then again I have gone to bed here in the single digits and awoken to plain rain with strong SE winds by sunrise. Climatology is certainly on our side but this is no 2004 when all of Narraganset Bay and Nantucket Sound were ice. Persistence says this thing goes BID to CC and the coastal front makes it out to 495 this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If it truly goes over the benchmark, most of us will be in good shape with nearly all frozen and/or freezing rain. A windswept rain would be a real slap in the face after an arctic outbreak like this, but then again I have gone to bed here in the single digits and awoken to plain rain with strong SE winds by sunrise. Climatology is certainly on our side but this is no 2004 when all of Narraganset Bay and Nantucket Sound were ice. Persistence says this thing goes BID to CC and the coastal front makes it out to 495 this time around. Don't talk like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18 Z Bufkit GFS IJD|22.4 BED 10.4 ORH 17.1 BDL 16.0 HVN 27.9 GON 12.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't talk like that... On face value, all of the progged tracks look good but that 850 layer looks awfully warm and far north. Retreating High is always a warning sign, no matter how cold the preceeding days were. Fortunately, I have become quite adept at shoveling loads of sleet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think Harvey's 6-12'' call is perfect right now...plenty of time to go higher if need be. This is where I'd start as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You don't always need an arctic high in place to ge a snowstorm. I've seen it happen many times before in my life. The only way pure heavy icy cold rain gets into the heart of our viewing area is if this thing tracks right over Nantucket. I don't think that's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice mid level deformation Wednesday night. Could help out further west, with a lower secondary max. Along and to the left is where we'll see a very rapid dropoff in accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice mid level deformation Wednesday night. Could help out further west, with a lower secondary max. Along and to the left is where we'll see a very rapid dropoff in accumulations How do you read this? How can I identify the deformation band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lots of Disco threads where is John Travolta? Epic Walk in Epic dance is the title can not believe I found this'LOL http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvQ8sUbgA2c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Holy Sh** 18z GFS KHFD Bufkit 110126/2100Z 51 04010KT 29.3F SNPL 4:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.024|| 0.02 0.02|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 49| 51| 0 110127/0000Z 54 03016KT 27.3F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.3 0.142|| 0.17 0.23|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 18| 82| 0 110127/0300Z 57 01019KT 26.8F SNOW 14:1| 4.7|| 5.0 0.331|| 0.50 0.00|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110127/0600Z 60 34021KT 27.1F SNOW 18:1|12.9||17.9 0.736|| 1.23 0.00|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110127/0900Z 63 33016KT 26.6F SNOW 17:1| 3.4||21.3 0.201|| 1.43 0.00|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 Between 3z and 6z, thats over 4 inches/hr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lots of Disco threads where John Travolta? Epic Walk in Epic dance is the title can not believe I found this'LOL http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvQ8sUbgA2c Following forum rules Steve. ~1000 post limits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Holy Sh** 18z GFS KHFD Bufkit 110126/2100Z 51 04010KT 29.3F SNPL 4:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.024|| 0.02 0.02|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 49| 51| 0 110127/0000Z 54 03016KT 27.3F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.3 0.142|| 0.17 0.23|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 18| 82| 0 110127/0300Z 57 01019KT 26.8F SNOW 14:1| 4.7|| 5.0 0.331|| 0.50 0.00|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110127/0600Z 60 34021KT 27.1F SNOW 18:1|12.9||17.9 0.736|| 1.23 0.00|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110127/0900Z 63 33016KT 26.6F SNOW 17:1| 3.4||21.3 0.201|| 1.43 0.00|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 Between 3z and 6z, thats over 4 inches/hr! 18:1 ratios in this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Following forum rules Steve. ~1000 post limits. Oh no complaints Bob, Disco fever baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Holy Sh** 18z GFS KHFD Bufkit That's nothing...BDR. LOL. 110126/1800Z 48 04012KT 32.4F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.01|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 43| 33| 24 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110126/2100Z 51 03017KT 31.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.083|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.01 0.09|| 0.09 0| 0|100 110127/0000Z 54 03022KT 30.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.118|| 0.21 0.00|| 0.01 0.12|| 0.21 0| 0|100 110127/0300Z 57 02027KT 28.4F SNOW 13:1| 7.2|| 7.2 0.559|| 0.77 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0 110127/0600Z 60 35019KT 28.8F SNOW 18:1|15.9||23.1 0.878|| 1.65 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110127/0900Z 63 33019KT 28.4F SNOW 11:1| 1.6||24.7 0.150|| 1.80 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How do you read this? How can I identify the deformation band? Ah...is the deformation band where the 100% rh is over NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 OK, I think HVN won 110126/1800Z 48 04011KT 31.3F SNZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.02 0.03|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 47| 34| 19 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110126/2100Z 51 03016KT 29.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.087|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.03 0.09|| 0.09 0| 0|100 110127/0000Z 54 03020KT 28.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.126|| 0.23 0.00|| 0.03 0.13|| 0.23 0| 0|100 110127/0300Z 57 02025KT 27.0F SNOW 14:1| 7.8|| 7.8 0.571|| 0.80 0.00|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 110127/0600Z 60 34019KT 27.3F SNOW 19:1|16.9||24.7 0.906|| 1.70 0.00|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110127/0900Z 63 33019KT 26.8F SNOW 15:1| 3.2||27.9 0.213|| 1.92 0.00|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh no complaints Bob, Disco fever baby Dust off the leisure suit and the penny loafers an hit the town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Snowfall rates of 4-5+ inches/hr across CT! Too bad the GFS will lose that by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You know there is a storm coming when you are on the 4th discussion page with 2 days left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yawn. Just another run of the mill 10-15"er This is getting boring. Great points made by Ray and Messy in the last thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 OK, I think HVN won 110126/1800Z 48 04011KT 31.3F SNZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.02 0.03|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 47| 34| 19 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110126/2100Z 51 03016KT 29.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.087|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.03 0.09|| 0.09 0| 0|100 110127/0000Z 54 03020KT 28.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.126|| 0.23 0.00|| 0.03 0.13|| 0.23 0| 0|100 110127/0300Z 57 02025KT 27.0F SNOW 14:1| 7.8|| 7.8 0.571|| 0.80 0.00|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 110127/0600Z 60 34019KT 27.3F SNOW 19:1|16.9||24.7 0.906|| 1.70 0.00|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110127/0900Z 63 33019KT 26.8F SNOW 15:1| 3.2||27.9 0.213|| 1.92 0.00|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 Do you have a link for that online Bufkit layout? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yawn. Just another run of the mill 10-15"er This is getting boring. Great points made by Ray and Messy in the last thread. I'm not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yawn. Just another run of the mill 10-15"er This is getting boring. Seriously. Need something new!! Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Do you have a link for that online Bufkit layout? Thanks You can get the main page here: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Then click the N.E. Bufkit Sites, and click the Cobb output once you pick a location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You can get the main page here: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Then click the N.E. Bufkit Sites, and click the Cobb output once you pick a location. Really cool site, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just looked at Harv's maps. 6-12 for the bulk of the state from GC to Boston and up close to the NH border. 3-6 Interior SE MA and less on the coast PYM southward to very little on the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GC? It's always mentioned and I can't figure out what it is. Please help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GC? It's always mentioned and I can't figure out what it is. Please help. Gods Country The Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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