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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Models appear to be locking into a BM or a hair NW strorm track. This would traditionally be a snowy track fpr most of us but due to a retreating H and lack of blocking, it could be a wintry mess for a lot of us. Best shot for an all snow event are in the interior. Hopefully tonight's model runs will shed some light on some of the outstanding issues wrt to the storm.

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If it truly goes over the benchmark, most of us will be in good shape with nearly all frozen and/or freezing rain. A windswept rain would be a real slap in the face after an arctic outbreak like this, but then again I have gone to bed here in the single digits and awoken to plain rain with strong SE winds by sunrise. Climatology is certainly on our side but this is no 2004 when all of Narraganset Bay and Nantucket Sound were ice. Persistence says this thing goes BID to CC and the coastal front makes it out to 495 this time around.

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If it truly goes over the benchmark, most of us will be in good shape with nearly all frozen and/or freezing rain. A windswept rain would be a real slap in the face after an arctic outbreak like this, but then again I have gone to bed here in the single digits and awoken to plain rain with strong SE winds by sunrise. Climatology is certainly on our side but this is no 2004 when all of Narraganset Bay and Nantucket Sound were ice. Persistence says this thing goes BID to CC and the coastal front makes it out to 495 this time around.

Don't talk like that...banned.gif

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Don't talk like that...banned.gif

On face value, all of the progged tracks look good but that 850 layer looks awfully warm and far north. Retreating High is always a warning sign, no matter how cold the preceeding days were. Fortunately, I have become quite adept at shoveling loads of sleet this winter.

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You don't always need an arctic high in place to ge a snowstorm. I've seen it happen many times before in my life. The only way pure heavy icy cold rain gets into the heart of our viewing area is if this thing tracks right over Nantucket. I don't think that's going to happen. :angry:

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Holy Sh** 18z GFS KHFD Bufkit

110126/2100Z  51  04010KT  29.3F  SNPL 	4:1| 0.1|| 0.1    0.024|| 0.02 	0.02|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00    49| 51|  0
110127/0000Z  54  03016KT  27.3F  SNPL 	1:1| 0.2|| 0.3    0.142|| 0.17 	0.23|| 0.26    0.00|| 0.00    18| 82|  0
110127/0300Z  57  01019KT  26.8F  SNOW    14:1| 4.7|| 5.0    0.331|| 0.50 	0.00|| 0.26    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0600Z  60  34021KT  27.1F  SNOW    18:1|12.9||17.9    0.736|| 1.23 	0.00|| 0.26    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0900Z  63  33016KT  26.6F  SNOW    17:1| 3.4||21.3    0.201|| 1.43 	0.00|| 0.26    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

Between 3z and 6z, thats over 4 inches/hr!

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Holy Sh** 18z GFS KHFD Bufkit

110126/2100Z  51  04010KT  29.3F  SNPL 	4:1| 0.1|| 0.1    0.024|| 0.02 	0.02|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00    49| 51|  0
110127/0000Z  54  03016KT  27.3F  SNPL 	1:1| 0.2|| 0.3    0.142|| 0.17 	0.23|| 0.26    0.00|| 0.00    18| 82|  0
110127/0300Z  57  01019KT  26.8F  SNOW    14:1| 4.7|| 5.0    0.331|| 0.50 	0.00|| 0.26    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0600Z  60  34021KT  27.1F  SNOW    18:1|12.9||17.9    0.736|| 1.23 	0.00|| 0.26    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0900Z  63  33016KT  26.6F  SNOW    17:1| 3.4||21.3    0.201|| 1.43 	0.00|| 0.26    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

Between 3z and 6z, thats over 4 inches/hr!

18:1 ratios in this storm? :weenie:

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Holy Sh** 18z GFS KHFD Bufkit

That's nothing...BDR. LOL.

110126/1800Z  48  04012KT  32.4F SNRAPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.008|| 0.01     0.01|| 0.01    0.00|| 0.00    43| 33| 24
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110126/2100Z  51  03017KT  31.3F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.083|| 0.09     0.00|| 0.01    0.09|| 0.09     0|  0|100
110127/0000Z  54  03022KT  30.0F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.118|| 0.21     0.00|| 0.01    0.12|| 0.21     0|  0|100
110127/0300Z  57  02027KT  28.4F  SNOW    13:1| 7.2|| 7.2    0.559|| 0.77     0.00|| 0.01    0.00|| 0.21   100|  0|  0
110127/0600Z  60  35019KT  28.8F  SNOW    18:1|15.9||23.1    0.878|| 1.65     0.00|| 0.01    0.00|| 0.21   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0900Z  63  33019KT  28.4F  SNOW    11:1| 1.6||24.7    0.150|| 1.80     0.00|| 0.01    0.00|| 0.21   100|  0|  0

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OK, I think HVN won :lmao:

110126/1800Z  48  04011KT  31.3F SNZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.016|| 0.02     0.03|| 0.03    0.00|| 0.00    47| 34| 19
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110126/2100Z  51  03016KT  29.8F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.087|| 0.10     0.00|| 0.03    0.09|| 0.09     0|  0|100
110127/0000Z  54  03020KT  28.4F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.126|| 0.23     0.00|| 0.03    0.13|| 0.23     0|  0|100
110127/0300Z  57  02025KT  27.0F  SNOW    14:1| 7.8|| 7.8    0.571|| 0.80     0.00|| 0.03    0.00|| 0.23   100|  0|  0
110127/0600Z  60  34019KT  27.3F  SNOW    19:1|16.9||24.7    0.906|| 1.70     0.00|| 0.03    0.00|| 0.23   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0900Z  63  33019KT  26.8F  SNOW    15:1| 3.2||27.9    0.213|| 1.92     0.00|| 0.03    0.00|| 0.23   100|  0|  0

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OK, I think HVN won :lmao:

110126/1800Z  48  04011KT  31.3F SNZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.016|| 0.02 	0.03|| 0.03    0.00|| 0.00    47| 34| 19
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110126/2100Z  51  03016KT  29.8F  FZRA 	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.087|| 0.10 	0.00|| 0.03    0.09|| 0.09 	0|  0|100
110127/0000Z  54  03020KT  28.4F  FZRA 	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.126|| 0.23 	0.00|| 0.03    0.13|| 0.23 	0|  0|100
110127/0300Z  57  02025KT  27.0F  SNOW    14:1| 7.8|| 7.8    0.571|| 0.80 	0.00|| 0.03    0.00|| 0.23   100|  0|  0
110127/0600Z  60  34019KT  27.3F  SNOW    19:1|16.9||24.7    0.906|| 1.70 	0.00|| 0.03    0.00|| 0.23   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0900Z  63  33019KT  26.8F  SNOW    15:1| 3.2||27.9    0.213|| 1.92 	0.00|| 0.03    0.00|| 0.23   100|  0|  0

Do you have a link for that online Bufkit layout? Thanks

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