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Florida Severe threat


janetjanet998

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Didn't see a thread on this yet for the Severe weather crowd

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1124 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF FL

..SYNOPSIS

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT VORT MAX NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN ROCKIES WILL

CONTINUE SEWD INTO BASE OF MEAN SYNOPTIC TROUGH...REACHING THE NWRN

GULF EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME

NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND SERN

STATES OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL

ADVANCE THROUGH THE GULF WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE FL

PENINSULA.

..FL

WEAK SURFACE LOW ALREADY EVIDENT OVER THE WRN GULF SHOULD DEEPEN IN

RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS IN

THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING...AND FURTHER MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR

FARTHER EAST AS TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SLY. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS

IS FORECAST OFF THE GA COAST LATE TUESDAY AS ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT

ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE GULF STREAM.

STRENGTHENING S-SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS

THROUGH SRN FL WITH LOW 60S MORE LIKELY FARTHER NORTH. LOW-LEVEL

THETA-E ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST DIABATIC WARMING

WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR BY LATE

AFTERNOON...BUT MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO 500-1000

J/KG OVER SRN FL AND BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN FL.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL GULF WITHIN ZONE OF

INCREASING FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD

FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EWD...LIKELY REACHING FL BY TUESDAY

EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE

TO 40-50 KT OVER THE PENINSULA AS THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH

APPROACHES...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING

SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL

BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL MAINTAIN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS

TIME DUE MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES

MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS

..DIAL.. 01/24/2011

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Didn't see a thread on this yet for the Severe weather crowd

Yes, we have also been discussing this in the Florida Fall/ winter thread. The local forecast offices , Tampa, Melbourne have also become bullish in regards to the severe weather threats in their AFD today. It will be interesting to see if the SPC upgrades the risk for Florida in the next update.

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Reminds me a bit of 2/2/07. A few isolated, tornadic supercells embedded in a larger mass of nonsevere precip. Good news (at least what it seems right now) is that the peak of this event looks to be around 0Z-6Z rather than the deadly hours of 6Z-12Z, when nocturnal enhancement of the LLJ plus a sleeping population heighten the danger.

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Like 2-22-98 and 2-2-07. Those were pretty bad days in Florida.

The 00z NAM is actually a pretty close analog to 2/22-2/23/98, with the sfc low a bit further N and stronger than previous runs, much like the '98 event. The low with the '98 event was still stronger, but the overall match isn't all that bad.

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The 00z NAM is actually a pretty close analog to 2/22-2/23/98, with the sfc low a bit further N and stronger than previous runs, much like the '98 event. The low with the '98 event was still stronger, but the overall match isn't all that bad.

98 is an event all on its own. I believe there were a total of 8 tornadoes over the MLB area if I am not mistaken. 3 of the tornadoes were over 15 miles in length with one of those being over 25 miles. I think it is important to put that into perspective here when comparing any event to 98.

I'm sure some folks somewhere will see a quick spinups (Lake, Volusia, Sumter) but the real show is the potential for a strong long tracker.

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It Looks like we could have 2 rounds of severe storms!!

..FL...

ASIDE FROM ABOVE-MENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NRN PART OF THE

STATE...A SECONDARY WARM FRONT --CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR

SRN PENINSULA-- DELINEATES THE NRN EXTENSION OF A MORE FULLY

MODIFIED AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MARK THE NRN EXTENT

OF MORE ROBUST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES

THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO DISTINCT TSTM REGIMES DURING THE DAY ONE

PERIOD. PERHAPS THE DOMINANT AND MOST PROBABLE REGIME WILL BE

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE

CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO EWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE

PENINSULA BY 26/12Z. BASED ON THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA

SETS...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR /QLCS/ WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND

GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

A MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SECOND REGIME

MAY BECOME MANIFEST LATER TODAY ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE

ZONE FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY

CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA

INDICATE A WEAKLY CAPPED...MODESTLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE OF

500-1000 J PER KG/ AIR MASS COINCIDENT WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WLY

SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. MOREOVER...THE WEAKLY FORCED

ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES

INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES

THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DUE TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN THIS

SECOND SCENARIO...THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY WILL BE

MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST.

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98 is an event all on its own. I believe there were a total of 8 tornadoes over the MLB area if I am not mistaken. 3 of the tornadoes were over 15 miles in length with one of those being over 25 miles. I think it is important to put that into perspective here when comparing any event to 98.

I'm sure some folks somewhere will see a quick spinups (Lake, Volusia, Sumter) but the real show is the potential for a strong long tracker.

There were 9 tornadoes in the MLB CWA, 3 of which were high-end F3s. 42 people were killed. The longest path length was for the Kissimmee tornado, which was 38 miles long and killed 25 people. I pretty well know what happened in '98, and my statement stands.

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There were 9 tornadoes in the MLB CWA, 3 of which were high-end F3s. 42 people were killed. The longest path length was for the Kissimmee tornado, which was 38 miles long and killed 25 people. I pretty well know what happened in '98, and my statement stands.

Wasn't trying to stir the pot. Just throwing out there how an extreme of an event you are comparing the setup on the NAM too. Many people on this board from Florida were not here in 98. I had just moved to Kissimmee in January 98 and was home the night of the event.

What is your over under for tornadoes for this event? What do you think the odds are of a long tracker of you are/were a betting man? I won't hold you to it. Just curious on your thoughts. I live for these events here.

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Wasn't trying to stir the pot. Just throwing out there how an extreme of an event you are comparing the setup on the NAM too. Many people on this board from Florida were not here in 98. I had just moved to Kissimmee in January 98 and was home the night of the event.

What is your over under for tornadoes for this event? What do you think the odds are of a long tracker of you are/were a betting man? I won't hold you to it. Just curious on your thoughts. I live for these events here.

Yea. I was here in 98 and I have heard from a few pro Mets that this looks like the 98 set-up . A pro Met mentioned to me last night he thought 50 Miles either side of the I-4 corridor had the highest risk of tornadoes later today!!

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Wasn't trying to stir the pot. Just throwing out there how an extreme of an event you are comparing the setup on the NAM too. Many people on this board from Florida were not here in 98. I had just moved to Kissimmee in January 98 and was home the night of the event.

What is your over under for tornadoes for this event? What do you think the odds are of a long tracker of you are/were a betting man? I won't hold you to it. Just curious on your thoughts. I live for these events here.

There is one big thing to watch for on the mesoscale: boundaries. The worst FL tornado events feature some sort of distinct mesoscale boundary. If we get one or more of these boundaries in place across the peninsula ahead of the squall line tonight, then there is going to be carnage.

Right now, my over/under for tornadoes in this event is 5. It won't be a huge outbreak, but any tornado that forms could be significant and extremely dangerous. IMO, I'd put the odds at 2:1 that we see a significant (EF2+), long-tracked (>/= 10km) tornado this evening or tonight.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1010 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER

MUCH OF FL...

..FL

SRN BRANCH S/W TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS LWR MS VLY/NRN GULF

OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON TO SERN STATES BY 12Z WED AS IT CONTINUES

TO DEEPEN. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SERN LA/SRN MS COAST WILL DEVELOP

ENEWD ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH NRN

FL/SRN GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

GULF MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD THRU FL PENINSULA ON STRENGTHENING

LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WITH 850 WINDS TO 35-40KT BY MID AFTERNOON

CENTRAL FL PENINSULA NWD.

WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS NOTED OVER NERN GULF AND LATEST

MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IT STILL APPEARS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR

TWO DISTINCT TSTM REGIMES DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. THE DOMINANT

AND MOST PROBABLE REGIME WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE

AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NERN

GULF OF MEXICO EWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA

BETWEEN 00-06Z. BASED ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA

SETS...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL

FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND

PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SECOND

REGIME WHICH COULD DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FL

PENINSULA WHERE HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED

THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATE LITTLE CAP WILL

REMAIN ONCE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE

MID 60S. AT THAT POINT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ AIR MASS

COINCIDENT WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250

M2/S2 WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES INCLUDING

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES BY LATER

THIS AFTERNOON.

.COASTAL CAROLINAS

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Meso out

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 251819Z - 251915Z SETUP APPEARS TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS WITH DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL. A WW LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. BROKEN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...SOUTH OF SLOWLY-MOVING WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCTY TO NEAR KJAX. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY N THROUGH LATE TODAY...WHILE NE-SW ORIENTED QLCS...NOW LOCATED ABOUT 90 NM WNW OF KTPA... CONTINUES E AT 40-45 KTS. AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH 30-35 KT SLY LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO 40+ KT WSWLY AT 500 MB. OVERALL WIND FIELD GRADUALLY SHOULD INCREASE...AND CURRENT WEAKNESS IN OBSERVED FLOW AROUND 700 MB SHOULD DIMINISH...AS UPR IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW OVER LA CONTINUE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AMPLE MOISTURE /AREA PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES/...AND ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/SMALL LEWPS WITH DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES AS QLCS CONTINUES EWD. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF QLCS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN FL...WHERE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONT. SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW IN THIS REGION MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT EARLY THIS EVE. ..CORFIDI.. 01/25/2011

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MAP

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1219 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251819Z - 251915Z

SETUP APPEARS TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS WITH DMGG

WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL.

A WW LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

BROKEN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO

MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...SOUTH OF SLOWLY-MOVING

WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCTY TO NEAR KJAX. THE FRONT

SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY N THROUGH LATE TODAY...WHILE

NE-SW ORIENTED QLCS...NOW LOCATED ABOUT 90 NM WNW OF KTPA...

CONTINUES E AT 40-45 KTS.

AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED

STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH 30-35 KT SLY LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO 40+ KT

WSWLY AT 500 MB. OVERALL WIND FIELD GRADUALLY SHOULD INCREASE...AND

CURRENT WEAKNESS IN OBSERVED FLOW AROUND 700 MB SHOULD DIMINISH...AS

UPR IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW OVER LA CONTINUE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AMPLE MOISTURE /AREA PW AROUND

1.25 INCHES/...AND ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED

SUPERCELLS/SMALL LEWPS WITH DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES AS QLCS

CONTINUES EWD. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT

OF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF QLCS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN

FL...WHERE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF SEA

BREEZE FRONT. SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW IN THIS REGION MAY

LOCALLY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT EARLY THIS EVE.

..CORFIDI.. 01/25/2011

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 28608316 29578348 30238275 30668183 30568125 29778092

29148076 28168064 27048155 26928255 28608316

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 7

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

210 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL

900 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

AVON PARK FLORIDA TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE NERN GULF WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE INTO AN

INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AIR MASS FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLE

SUPERCELLS. MLCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO AOA 500 J/KG ALONG WITH STEADILY

IMPROVING SHEAR PROFILES WITH APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND

SURFACE LOW. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL SEVERE INCLUDING ISOLATED

TORNADOES WITH THE SQUALL LINE...MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION IS NOW

DEVELOPING IN WCENTRAL FL AND WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO LOW

TOPPED SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS

CENTRAL AND NERN FL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HALES

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Yea NOAA wasn't kidding around when they said there was a risk of tornadoes and bad storms today/tonight. Tampa is under the gun right now.

The squall line is really coming together in the Eastern Gulf!!. Severe thunderstorm and now Tornado warnings for the impressive squall line that's starting to hit the Tampa region.

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TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL

355 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CITRUS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 445 PM EST

* AT 348 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 17 MILES WEST OF CHASSAHOWITZKA...OR 18 MILES WEST OF

HOMOSASSA SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

CHASSAHOWITZKA.

CHASSAHOWITZKA.

HOMOSASSA SPRINGS.

BEVERLY HILLS.

INVERNESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN

A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT

SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND

COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

post-378-0-63805000-1295989593.gif

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The squall line is really coming together in the Eastern Gulf!!. Severe thunderstorm and now Tornado warnings for the impressive squall line that's starting to hit the Tampa region.

One of my friends just moved to the Tampa area 2 weeks ago. He has no idea what Florida thunderstoms are like. LOL. He's used to NJ thunderstorms. He's about to get a quick education I think.

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IMO this is looking more like a wind and quick spin up event rather than an event that can lead to a sustained long tracker across the Central Florida area.

True, the more "classic" supercell structures have failed to develop (so far)... but you can still get a long tracker if a break in the squall line maintains itself, such as the one north of Tampa.

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Add 3 more counties:

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

410 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

EASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 500 PM EST

* AT 410 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO

NEAR ORANGE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

MANDARIN...SAN MARCO...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...UNF...ARLINGTON...

SAN PABLO...NEPTUNE BEACH...FORT CAROLINE...MAYPORT...TALBOT ISLAND

AND LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT

TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR

HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER

YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY

OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING

FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

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