janetjanet998 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Didn't see a thread on this yet for the Severe weather crowd DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF FL ..SYNOPSIS MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT VORT MAX NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO BASE OF MEAN SYNOPTIC TROUGH...REACHING THE NWRN GULF EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND SERN STATES OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE GULF WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. ..FL WEAK SURFACE LOW ALREADY EVIDENT OVER THE WRN GULF SHOULD DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING...AND FURTHER MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST AS TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SLY. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OFF THE GA COAST LATE TUESDAY AS ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE GULF STREAM. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS THROUGH SRN FL WITH LOW 60S MORE LIKELY FARTHER NORTH. LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG OVER SRN FL AND BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN FL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL GULF WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EWD...LIKELY REACHING FL BY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT OVER THE PENINSULA AS THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH APPROACHES...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL MAINTAIN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ..DIAL.. 01/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's a classic killer tornado setup in Florida. Absolutely classic. 65 Td with a low forming in the nrn Gulf and moving ashore at the panhandle...doesn't get much more classic than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Didn't see a thread on this yet for the Severe weather crowd Yes, we have also been discussing this in the Florida Fall/ winter thread. The local forecast offices , Tampa, Melbourne have also become bullish in regards to the severe weather threats in their AFD today. It will be interesting to see if the SPC upgrades the risk for Florida in the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Reminds me a bit of 2/2/07. A few isolated, tornadic supercells embedded in a larger mass of nonsevere precip. Good news (at least what it seems right now) is that the peak of this event looks to be around 0Z-6Z rather than the deadly hours of 6Z-12Z, when nocturnal enhancement of the LLJ plus a sleeping population heighten the danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You guys stay safe down there! Looks like it could get nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's a classic killer tornado setup in Florida. Absolutely classic. 65 Td with a low forming in the nrn Gulf and moving ashore at the panhandle...doesn't get much more classic than that... Like 2-22-98 and 2-2-07. Those were pretty bad days in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Like 2-22-98 and 2-2-07. Those were pretty bad days in Florida. The 00z NAM is actually a pretty close analog to 2/22-2/23/98, with the sfc low a bit further N and stronger than previous runs, much like the '98 event. The low with the '98 event was still stronger, but the overall match isn't all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sweet, looking forward to this. Hopefully I get some good action here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 00z NAM is actually a pretty close analog to 2/22-2/23/98, with the sfc low a bit further N and stronger than previous runs, much like the '98 event. The low with the '98 event was still stronger, but the overall match isn't all that bad. 98 is an event all on its own. I believe there were a total of 8 tornadoes over the MLB area if I am not mistaken. 3 of the tornadoes were over 15 miles in length with one of those being over 25 miles. I think it is important to put that into perspective here when comparing any event to 98. I'm sure some folks somewhere will see a quick spinups (Lake, Volusia, Sumter) but the real show is the potential for a strong long tracker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It Looks like we could have 2 rounds of severe storms!! ..FL... ASIDE FROM ABOVE-MENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NRN PART OF THE STATE...A SECONDARY WARM FRONT --CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR SRN PENINSULA-- DELINEATES THE NRN EXTENSION OF A MORE FULLY MODIFIED AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MARK THE NRN EXTENT OF MORE ROBUST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO DISTINCT TSTM REGIMES DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE DOMINANT AND MOST PROBABLE REGIME WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO EWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA BY 26/12Z. BASED ON THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SETS...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR /QLCS/ WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. A MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SECOND REGIME MAY BECOME MANIFEST LATER TODAY ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATE A WEAKLY CAPPED...MODESTLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ AIR MASS COINCIDENT WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. MOREOVER...THE WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DUE TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SECOND SCENARIO...THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 98 is an event all on its own. I believe there were a total of 8 tornadoes over the MLB area if I am not mistaken. 3 of the tornadoes were over 15 miles in length with one of those being over 25 miles. I think it is important to put that into perspective here when comparing any event to 98. I'm sure some folks somewhere will see a quick spinups (Lake, Volusia, Sumter) but the real show is the potential for a strong long tracker. There were 9 tornadoes in the MLB CWA, 3 of which were high-end F3s. 42 people were killed. The longest path length was for the Kissimmee tornado, which was 38 miles long and killed 25 people. I pretty well know what happened in '98, and my statement stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 There were 9 tornadoes in the MLB CWA, 3 of which were high-end F3s. 42 people were killed. The longest path length was for the Kissimmee tornado, which was 38 miles long and killed 25 people. I pretty well know what happened in '98, and my statement stands. Wasn't trying to stir the pot. Just throwing out there how an extreme of an event you are comparing the setup on the NAM too. Many people on this board from Florida were not here in 98. I had just moved to Kissimmee in January 98 and was home the night of the event. What is your over under for tornadoes for this event? What do you think the odds are of a long tracker of you are/were a betting man? I won't hold you to it. Just curious on your thoughts. I live for these events here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wasn't trying to stir the pot. Just throwing out there how an extreme of an event you are comparing the setup on the NAM too. Many people on this board from Florida were not here in 98. I had just moved to Kissimmee in January 98 and was home the night of the event. What is your over under for tornadoes for this event? What do you think the odds are of a long tracker of you are/were a betting man? I won't hold you to it. Just curious on your thoughts. I live for these events here. Yea. I was here in 98 and I have heard from a few pro Mets that this looks like the 98 set-up . A pro Met mentioned to me last night he thought 50 Miles either side of the I-4 corridor had the highest risk of tornadoes later today!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wasn't trying to stir the pot. Just throwing out there how an extreme of an event you are comparing the setup on the NAM too. Many people on this board from Florida were not here in 98. I had just moved to Kissimmee in January 98 and was home the night of the event. What is your over under for tornadoes for this event? What do you think the odds are of a long tracker of you are/were a betting man? I won't hold you to it. Just curious on your thoughts. I live for these events here. There is one big thing to watch for on the mesoscale: boundaries. The worst FL tornado events feature some sort of distinct mesoscale boundary. If we get one or more of these boundaries in place across the peninsula ahead of the squall line tonight, then there is going to be carnage. Right now, my over/under for tornadoes in this event is 5. It won't be a huge outbreak, but any tornado that forms could be significant and extremely dangerous. IMO, I'd put the odds at 2:1 that we see a significant (EF2+), long-tracked (>/= 10km) tornado this evening or tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF FL... ..FL SRN BRANCH S/W TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS LWR MS VLY/NRN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON TO SERN STATES BY 12Z WED AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SERN LA/SRN MS COAST WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH NRN FL/SRN GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GULF MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD THRU FL PENINSULA ON STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WITH 850 WINDS TO 35-40KT BY MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL FL PENINSULA NWD. WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS NOTED OVER NERN GULF AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IT STILL APPEARS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO DISTINCT TSTM REGIMES DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. THE DOMINANT AND MOST PROBABLE REGIME WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO EWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA BETWEEN 00-06Z. BASED ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SETS...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SECOND REGIME WHICH COULD DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FL PENINSULA WHERE HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATE LITTLE CAP WILL REMAIN ONCE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S. AT THAT POINT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ AIR MASS COINCIDENT WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. .COASTAL CAROLINAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One thing I have been getting this morning so far is some good daytime heating. I am hoping this will help fire up some good storms ahead of the Squall line tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 According to the SREF things may get started a little early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Meso out ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 251819Z - 251915Z SETUP APPEARS TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS WITH DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL. A WW LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. BROKEN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...SOUTH OF SLOWLY-MOVING WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCTY TO NEAR KJAX. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY N THROUGH LATE TODAY...WHILE NE-SW ORIENTED QLCS...NOW LOCATED ABOUT 90 NM WNW OF KTPA... CONTINUES E AT 40-45 KTS. AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH 30-35 KT SLY LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO 40+ KT WSWLY AT 500 MB. OVERALL WIND FIELD GRADUALLY SHOULD INCREASE...AND CURRENT WEAKNESS IN OBSERVED FLOW AROUND 700 MB SHOULD DIMINISH...AS UPR IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW OVER LA CONTINUE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AMPLE MOISTURE /AREA PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES/...AND ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/SMALL LEWPS WITH DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES AS QLCS CONTINUES EWD. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF QLCS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN FL...WHERE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONT. SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW IN THIS REGION MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT EARLY THIS EVE. ..CORFIDI.. 01/25/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 MAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 MAP MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 251819Z - 251915Z SETUP APPEARS TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS WITH DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL. A WW LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. BROKEN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...SOUTH OF SLOWLY-MOVING WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCTY TO NEAR KJAX. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY N THROUGH LATE TODAY...WHILE NE-SW ORIENTED QLCS...NOW LOCATED ABOUT 90 NM WNW OF KTPA... CONTINUES E AT 40-45 KTS. AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH 30-35 KT SLY LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO 40+ KT WSWLY AT 500 MB. OVERALL WIND FIELD GRADUALLY SHOULD INCREASE...AND CURRENT WEAKNESS IN OBSERVED FLOW AROUND 700 MB SHOULD DIMINISH...AS UPR IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW OVER LA CONTINUE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AMPLE MOISTURE /AREA PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES/...AND ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/SMALL LEWPS WITH DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES AS QLCS CONTINUES EWD. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF QLCS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN FL...WHERE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONT. SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW IN THIS REGION MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT EARLY THIS EVE. ..CORFIDI.. 01/25/2011 ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 28608316 29578348 30238275 30668183 30568125 29778092 29148076 28168064 27048155 26928255 28608316 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 7 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900 PM EST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF AVON PARK FLORIDA TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE NERN GULF WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AIR MASS FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. MLCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO AOA 500 J/KG ALONG WITH STEADILY IMPROVING SHEAR PROFILES WITH APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL SEVERE INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE SQUALL LINE...MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING IN WCENTRAL FL AND WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN FL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...HALES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Convection starting to fire ahead of the line in the peninsula. There was some rotation earlier in the squall line in the gulf but none since. Looks like it's go time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Convection starting to fire ahead of the line in the peninsula. There was some rotation earlier in the squall line in the gulf but none since. Looks like it's go time now. It does look like go time. Tampa radar showing a impressive squall line about to hit the region. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It does look like go time. Tampa radar showing a impressive squall line about to hit the region. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/ Yea NOAA wasn't kidding around when they said there was a risk of tornadoes and bad storms today/tonight. Tampa is under the gun right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It does look like go time. Tampa radar showing a impressive squall line about to hit the region. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/ IMO this is looking more like a wind and quick spin up event rather than an event that can lead to a sustained long tracker across the Central Florida area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yea NOAA wasn't kidding around when they said there was a risk of tornadoes and bad storms today/tonight. Tampa is under the gun right now. The squall line is really coming together in the Eastern Gulf!!. Severe thunderstorm and now Tornado warnings for the impressive squall line that's starting to hit the Tampa region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 355 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CITRUS COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 445 PM EST * AT 348 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 17 MILES WEST OF CHASSAHOWITZKA...OR 18 MILES WEST OF HOMOSASSA SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CHASSAHOWITZKA. CHASSAHOWITZKA. HOMOSASSA SPRINGS. BEVERLY HILLS. INVERNESS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The squall line is really coming together in the Eastern Gulf!!. Severe thunderstorm and now Tornado warnings for the impressive squall line that's starting to hit the Tampa region. One of my friends just moved to the Tampa area 2 weeks ago. He has no idea what Florida thunderstoms are like. LOL. He's used to NJ thunderstorms. He's about to get a quick education I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 IMO this is looking more like a wind and quick spin up event rather than an event that can lead to a sustained long tracker across the Central Florida area. True, the more "classic" supercell structures have failed to develop (so far)... but you can still get a long tracker if a break in the squall line maintains itself, such as the one north of Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Add 3 more counties: TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 410 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA EASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA * UNTIL 500 PM EST * AT 410 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ORANGE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MANDARIN...SAN MARCO...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...UNF...ARLINGTON... SAN PABLO...NEPTUNE BEACH...FORT CAROLINE...MAYPORT...TALBOT ISLAND AND LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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