PSU8315 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yea the 18z run of the GFS was pretty horrendous. Now the 12z kept central PA under mainly snow/frozen and had what I thought was a pretty reasonable solution. Right now I think that ultimately the storm will transfer to the coast and make for at least the typical snow to mix/rain back to snow type scenario. The afternoon HPC progs seem to also be leaning in this direction as well. I don't think this thing would solely run a primary into the Lakes and make a mainly mix to rain scenario. There's liable to be at least some kind of coastal reflection or secondary development as the storm is going to be looking for the greatest baroclinic boundary.. and its likely not going to find it in the Ohio Valley. Any kind of reflection to the coast will help keep this area under the gun for a snow and/or wintry mix event for most of the duration. I've noticed that once again the Euro I believe had been the first one to suggest anything west of the mountains after both it and the GFS buried this thing offshore for a few cycles..and I have seen that particular issue play out the previous couple Great Lakes cutters that have occured. Now most modelling either has a GLC or miller-B storm scenario. Still about 5-6 days away, so there will likely be a lot more major swings in the next couple days yet. About the spotter classes, usually NWS holds a few talks per year in various places where u can become a spotter. They usually post in the website times and locations. I"m kinda surprised they wouldn't use your totals if your a co-op. Not sure how you report in your co-op obs, but If you wanted to report anything you can always call in to the office as well. Yep, Euro was sniffing at a Lakes cutter over the weekend and has had it for 5 or 6 runs now. 00z GFS is back to a somewhat colder solution, but takes the storm on an unusual track through the Appalachians. Will be interesting to see what the Canadian and Euro come up with later tonight. No matter the track, the air behind this storm looks impressive. The -20 C line at 850mb looks like it pays us a visit early next week with more wind and lake snows. MOS high for Altoona next Tuesday is 18, which is heavily influenced by climo this far out, so it may turn out even colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Who is ready for cold, then warm and rain, then back to cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Got a text from a friend in Lock Haven around 4:30 and there was 0.5-1" on the ground and it was snowing heavily, looks like it has been since. I'm really hoping that band shifts SW over us this evening...seems like that's really the only way State College will see anything measurable from this event. The flow doesn't seem to want to shift any further south and cause the banding to shift along with it. The low over Maine might have something to do with it for the time being. Nonetheless, these bands, when they do develop are very narrow and focused, and I'm sure someone over Clinton County had over 6" from that kind of band for as long as they did. State College itself had as much from that, I've seen it during my time up there. Maybe there's a chance that tomorrow the flow can realign somewhat, but the lake effect activity looks to diminish soon also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The flow doesn't seem to want to shift any further south and cause the banding to shift along with it. The low over Maine might have something to do with it for the time being. Nonetheless, these bands, when they do develop are very narrow and focused, and I'm sure someone over Clinton County had over 6" from that kind of band for as long as they did. State College itself had as much from that, I've seen it during my time up there. Maybe there's a chance that tomorrow the flow can realign somewhat, but the lake effect activity looks to diminish soon also. PennDOT reported 9" in Loganton, Clinton County, which is right off of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yep, Euro was sniffing at a Lakes cutter over the weekend and has had it for 5 or 6 runs now. 00z GFS is back to a somewhat colder solution, but takes the storm on an unusual track through the Appalachians. Will be interesting to see what the Canadian and Euro come up with later tonight. No matter the track, the air behind this storm looks impressive. The -20 C line at 850mb looks like it pays us a visit early next week with more wind and lake snows. MOS high for Altoona next Tuesday is 18, which is heavily influenced by climo this far out, so it may turn out even colder. Yea, the wake of this storm could potentially see some of the first wind chill related headlines of the season. The actual storm isn't looking too good snow/frozen precip wise with respect to the 0z suite, thats for sure. 0z Euro has a standard lakes cutter which would be a mostly rain event. 0z GGEM just about runs us over, and suggests that we probably go through the whole works p-type wise. UKMET takes a low from about northern Mississippi to philly hours 120-144. With the exception of the UK...the 0z suite has alot of westward leaning models, and the Euro which continues to bang the drum for a GLC. I still think modelling eventually settles on some kind of a miller-B solution as the week wears on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yea, the wake of this storm could potentially see some of the first wind chill related headlines of the season. The actual storm isn't looking too good snow/frozen precip wise with respect to the 0z suite, thats for sure. 0z Euro has a standard lakes cutter which would be a mostly rain event. 0z GGEM just about runs us over, and suggests that we probably go through the whole works p-type wise. UKMET takes a low from about northern Mississippi to philly hours 120-144. With the exception of the UK...the 0z suite has alot of westward leaning models, and the Euro which continues to bang the drum for a GLC. I still think modelling eventually settles on some kind of a miller-B solution as the week wears on. 06 seemed a bit better, at least for around here. I am a bit concerned about an ice storm IMBY. Have had a few events where it didn't warm up as expected two winters ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psnnstater77 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 06 seemed a bit better, at least for around here. I am a bit concerned about an ice storm IMBY. Have had a few events where it didn't warm up as expected two winters ago. Yeah, Ice is bad..I will take a wash out before Ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Random State College snowfall fact: The last snowfall of 1.0" or greater was February 26th. Assuming we don't see an inch until at least Sunday, that would put us at 289 days without "significant" snow. I'd think it's fairly unusual to have nothing over 1" in March, April, and the following November and first two weeks of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Random State College snowfall fact: The last snowfall of 1.0" or greater was February 26th. Assuming we don't see an inch until at least Sunday, that would put us at 289 days without "significant" snow. I'd think it's fairly unusual to have nothing over 1" in March, April, and the following November and first two weeks of December. Wow, that is unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well guys the 18z run is offer us snow weenies a chance again. Hopefully its a trend and not the typical 18z hiccup. Is the GGEM still showing it east of the apps? The Euro still worries me, hopefully it trends eastward, or maybe be just flat out wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Sausa, you going to help me chip ice Sunday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I think most of Central PA with the exception of maybe Lancaster will see Winter precip with this. The Freeze line at the surface and at 850 have been in pretty much the same place for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Who is ready for cold, then warm and rain, then back to cold? 40 degrees and raining and sleeting and snowing isnt warm in my book. In fact, its not even close to warm. Its not even 25 degrees within warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah, Ice is bad..I will take a wash out before Ice. Two years ago sucked. Lots of ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psnnstater77 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Two years ago sucked. Lots of ice storms. Please don't remind me. I know its been cold so far, but I think we are going to go in that direction with a milder winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 40 degrees and raining and sleeting and snowing isnt warm in my book. In fact, its not even close to warm. Its not even 25 degrees within warm. If it's raining it's warm too me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We got a good snow shower through here about an hour, hour half ago. Nice band just to the NE of State College, looks like it is expanding, and a new band might forming for MBY. Nice, I thought we were done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Won't snow naturally. I'll make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 We got a good snow shower through here about an hour, hour half ago. Nice band just to the NE of State College, looks like it is expanding, and a new band might forming for MBY. Nice, I thought we were done. I though we were done as well. Snowed nicely here for awhile and put down maybe a tenth of an inch or so. Let's hope that band that seems to be forming can stick around for a bit...maybe we'll manage something measurable from this event after all. 22° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 we picked up .75 - 1.0 inch in a band earlier. snowing now with a nice looking band heading for me.... coming through dubois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I though we were done as well. Snowed nicely here for awhile and put down maybe a tenth of an inch or so. Let's hope that band that seems to be forming can stick around for a bit...maybe we'll manage something measurable from this event after all. 22° here. We got a few inches over the days. Seems like it snowed here about half inch, then it would go away, only to be replaced in the evening. Hills to my north are white, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 We got a few inches over the days. Seems like it snowed here about half inch, then it would go away, only to be replaced in the evening. Hills to my north are white, though. Yeah, I drove up Rt 504 from Unionville and into Black Moshannon State Park yesterday, there was a solid 4-6" on the ground above 2000ft. The lake at Black Moshannon was frozen over as well. Ended up driving right through Port Matilda then too, should have beeped as I drove by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 0z runs (Euronot yet put to dash our hopes) have the Susquahanna Valley seeing 1"-3" of snow before it turns to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Last few nights have been odd temp wise. Temp falls to low around 11pm then they start rising. At 24 now after going to 23. Low is supposed to be 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Just got up to go to the bathroom and looked outside....nice. Snowing at a good clip with what appears to be around an inch on the ground just north of State College. Looks like the band will stay over this area for a little longer at least. Cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Just got up to go to the bathroom and looked outside....nice. Snowing at a good clip with what appears to be around an inch on the ground just north of State College. Looks like the band will stay over this area for a little longer at least. Cool stuff. How far north, Vairo Village/State College Park, or further? BTW, there looks to be an awesome ocean effect snowband developing maybe 15 miles south of me and headed straight ESE... It's calm as anything at my place now and yet it's probably snowing like crazy just out into the open ocean under that band. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 How far north, Vairo Village/State College Park, or further? BTW, there looks to be an awesome ocean effect snowband developing maybe 15 miles south of me and headed straight ESE... It's calm as anything at my place now and yet it's probably snowing like crazy just out into the open ocean under that band. Amazing. I live a bit farther north of that area and had probably 1.5" or so when I left for work around 2:30 and it was still snowing. I had been sleeping the entire time, so I was shocked when I woke up to a blanket of white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Woke up to a white ground this am. Roads covered...........a suprise dusting.......cross the bridge to work in HBG and nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah, I drove up Rt 504 from Unionville and into Black Moshannon State Park yesterday, there was a solid 4-6" on the ground above 2000ft. The lake at Black Moshannon was frozen over as well. Ended up driving right through Port Matilda then too, should have beeped as I drove by. Heh, nice. We had a solid inch and a half of fluff this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I guess the Euro is farther east. So much for that being a lock model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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