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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

PennMan

By PennMan,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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Dominant band in the region at this point is clearly the one just above Pittsburgh that is nosing into the Laurels in southern Cambria/Northern Somerset. The webcams around the Johnstown area on Route 219 show the more consistent rates and snowcovered roads. CCX radar is finally up, but it still isn't showing much down in that area.. and it usually doesn't in these lake effect situations. Pittsburgh nexrad seems to be a better choice to watch this particular snowband, and it appears that it may start focusing a slight bit more on northern Somerset County.

The rest of the banded activity in Central PA seems to be rather disorganized attm. Seems to be another primary band up in the north central but probably not as strong as the other band currently. Some signs of some more action cropping up in between near KUNV, appears to be mainly light snowfall.

On the weekend storm...

Had a look at the 0z GFS and it has a miller B...ish solution with a broad low that stays mainly south of PA and eventually gets is act together off the Jersey shore. There would be precip issues at least under I-80 with the GFS solution. Just seen 0z European, not really sure what to make of it. Takes a fairly robust low from eastern Iowa into the central lakes and then developing a secondary coastal low off the VA coast by h168. It then takes it east off the coast to a point and the develops into a significant low that retrogrades back into Long Island. And this whole evolution encompasses hour 144 all the way to 240. Click HERE for the loop of the model run. I haven't ventured onto any other threads to look at anyone else's take on that mess yet.. but I'm personally throwing away the 0z Euro. The Sunday 12z run had something sort of like the 0z GFS, except that it just takes the low into the eastern lakes with no secondary. The trend the last few cycles has been to bring this low back west after having this as either a coastal or a fish storm. Plenty of time and there will likely be plenty more solutions. My current take is that this storm likely resembles more of what the 0z GFS is showing.

I know it's just the 06 GFS but that was fun to look at, anyway.

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jm1220

jm1220

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Looks like one of those Lake Huron-originated bands is tracking across N PA up to just east of Lock Haven right now, and is slowly shifting south. If State College gets lucky and the prevailing wind shifts some more, it could approach the area during the afternoon and leave a quick 1-2".

It's even snowing this AM here across the NYC area, so this latest round of lake snows are packing a punch.

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jm1220

jm1220

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Looks like the Sun/Mon storm could be a sleet/freezing rain event for much of the region as well if it tracks through the Ohio Valley and redevelops as projected. The cold could be lodged in much tougher than the GFS and other models now have it, and that kind of track ensures a roaring warm flow at 850 and above. Probably first of many of these this year.

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sauss06

sauss06

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Looks like the Sun/Mon storm could be a sleet/freezing rain event for much of the region as well if it tracks through the Ohio Valley and redevelops as projected. The cold could be lodged in much tougher than the GFS and other models now have it, and that kind of track ensures a roaring warm flow at 850 and above. Probably first of many of these this year.

December 15, 2007 we had sleet and frzn that had our are without power for over 7 hours. Some didn't have any for a couple days. I think we got it back quick because i live directly across the street from the fire station and they wanted them up and running.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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Looks like the Sun/Mon storm could be a sleet/freezing rain event for much of the region as well if it tracks through the Ohio Valley and redevelops as projected. The cold could be lodged in much tougher than the GFS and other models now have it, and that kind of track ensures a roaring warm flow at 850 and above. Probably first of many of these this year.

The model runs have been weird. I am probably wrong but I don't remember something like this, snow to ice back to snow with a lot of wind.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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12z GFS was a pretty decent run for our local area actually, I think most of central PA north and west of about Harrisburg would stay either all snow or all frozen taking that run for what its worth. New European resembles last nights crazy 0z run a bit, bring a strong low through the central lakes with a secondary formation starting somewhere in NC or VA. Its hard to decipher with the 24 hour increments what happens with the secondary transfer, but i'll be able to see the full 240hr euro in 6 hour increments in the next hour or so.

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jm1220

jm1220

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The model runs have been weird. I am probably wrong but I don't remember something like this, snow to ice back to snow with a lot of wind.

Maybe a 2/14/07 redux type of storm?

Depends on how far north the primary low gets before transferring to a coastal low (if it transfers over at all). If it doesn't then obviously it might be a washout for even many of you guys. If it's a transferring low then it might be mostly snow or ice.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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Maybe a 2/14/07 redux type of storm?

Depends on how far north the primary low gets before transferring to a coastal low (if it transfers over at all). If it doesn't then obviously it might be a washout for even many of you guys. If it's a transferring low then it might be mostly snow or ice.

I guess the Euro trended favorably for us, compared to 0Z. Was reading tombo's posts in the Eastern PA/Philly/NYC thread.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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This was interesting:

LATEST MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BANDED SNOWS DEVELOPING ANDWHIPPING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM.HRRR AND 12-40KM NAM INDICATES THE FOCUS FOR SNOW SQUALLS/CURRENTLY FROM KBFD...SE TO NEAR KIPT AND KSEG/ SINKING SOUTH ANDWEST TWD KDUJ...KFIG AND KUNV AFTER 20Z.WHILE TRYING TO PINPOINT WHAT BAND WILL AFFECT WHICH PORTION OFWHAT COUNTY AT WHAT TIME IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE EXCEPT IN THE VERYNEAR TERM /VIA SHORT TERM FORECASTS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTSFOR SQUALLS/...THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GUNFOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF LES...AND WINTER STORMWARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND TWEAK ADDITIONAL/STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLAMOUNTS.LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE/INTENSIFY THE NEARBYSNOW SQUALL BANDS CLOSE TO/PARALLEL WITH ROUTE 322 LATERTODAY...IN THE FORM OF A LONG BAND FROM HURON ALL THE WAY DOWNINTO THE STATE COLLEGE AREA AND ALMOST TO HARRISBURG.

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jm1220

jm1220

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i know i wish we were under that band to the north of us.

any reports from the area under it?

Lock Haven must be getting absolutely smoked right now. If that band sits there much longer, somebody could get 8" in just a few hours. It's happened before in banding like this. One time I remember the Centre/Clinton County border up to around Lock Haven cashing in on close to a foot of powder while State College got maybe an inch, and they're not even 25 miles SW of there. When you have a megaband like this that travels over Lake Huron for hundreds of miles and the wind trajectory/cold air contrast with the lake is favorable, somebody around here cashes in more often than not.

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PennMan

PennMan

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Lock Haven must be getting absolutely smoked right now. If that band sits there much longer, somebody could get 8" in just a few hours. It's happened before in banding like this. One time I remember the Centre/Clinton County border up to around Lock Haven cashing in on close to a foot of powder while State College got maybe an inch, and they're not even 25 miles SW of there. When you have a megaband like this that travels over Lake Huron for hundreds of miles and the wind trajectory/cold air contrast with the lake is favorable, somebody around here cashes in more often than not.

Got a text from a friend in Lock Haven around 4:30 and there was 0.5-1" on the ground and it was snowing heavily, looks like it has been since. I'm really hoping that band shifts SW over us this evening...seems like that's really the only way State College will see anything measurable from this event.

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PSU8315

PSU8315

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Do you have any weather spotters in Clinton County, or isn't that in your DMA? It appears like they got it pretty good from that band all day.

Clinton is not officially in our DMA, so we did not but we do cover news/weather for them. That being said, we don't have any weather spotters there -- we have a few spotters in Cameron and northern Centre counties, but not Clinton.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Clinton is not officially in our DMA, so we did not but we do cover news/weather for them. That being said, we don't have any weather spotters there -- we have a few spotters in Cameron and northern Centre counties, but not Clinton.

Looks like a few spotters might've come out of the woodwork to report on the snowband up in Clinton county..latest CTP PNS statement has a whopping 3 reports. Woolrich is off to the east of Lock Haven and Haneyville... is somewhere near the northern border of Clinton.

PENNSYLVANIA

...CAMBRIA COUNTY...

JOHNSTOWN 7.5 500 PM 12/6 SPOTTER - 2 DAY TOTAL

...CAMERON COUNTY...

STERLING RUN 4.0 500 PM 12/6 SPOTTER - TODAY

...CLINTON COUNTY...

HANEYVILLE 5.0 500 PM 12/6 SPOTTER - TODAY

WOOLRICH 3.0 500 PM 12/6 SPOTTER - TODAY

LOCK HAVEN 3.0 515 PM 12/6 SPOTTER - TODAY

...ELK COUNTY...

SAINT MARYS 10.0 530 PM 12/6 SPOTTER - TODAY

...MCKEAN COUNTY...

BRADFORD 12.0 430 PM 12/6 SPOTTER - TODAY

...POTTER COUNTY...

AUSTIN 10.0 500 PM 12/6 SPOTTER - 2 DAY TOTAL

ROULETT TOWNSHIP 6.0 500 PM 12/6 SPOTTER - 2 DAY TOTAL

...SOMERSET COUNTY...

GRAY 6.5 500 PM 12/6 SPOTTER - TODAY

...WARREN COUNTY...

BEAR LAKE 8.0 500 PM 12/6 SPOTTER - TODAY

IRVINE 16.0 500 PM 12/6 SPOTTER - 2 DAY TOTAL

Those totals in Clinton county have likely increased in the last couple hours as that band continues to be persistent in those areas.

Meanwhile, activity appears to be on the increase in the Laurels as the southern band that has been near Pittsburgh looks to be getting

stronger. Curiously, CTP has bumped up totals on its county packages in Blair and Bedford counties.. with a forecasted 2-4 inches overnight.

That'll be interesting if that occurs anywhere in those two counties off the Allegheny front that forms their western most border regions.

This is the kind of setup for it to happen, although the best chances of any amounts getting over 2 inches is likely to be west of I-99.

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PottercountyWXobserver

PottercountyWXobserver

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Looks like a few spotters might've come out of the woodwork to report on the snowband up in Clinton county..latest CTP PNS statement has a whopping 3 reports. Woolrich is off to the east of Lock Haven and Haneyville... is somewhere near the northern border of Clinton.

Those totals in Clinton county have likely increased in the last couple hours as that band continues to be persistent in those areas.

Meanwhile, activity appears to be on the increase in the Laurels as the southern band that has been near Pittsburgh looks to be getting

stronger. Curiously, CTP has bumped up totals on its county packages in Blair and Bedford counties.. with a forecasted 2-4 inches overnight.

That'll be interesting if that occurs anywhere in those two counties off the Allegheny front that forms their western most border regions.

This is the kind of setup for it to happen, although the best chances of any amounts getting over 2 inches is likely to be west of I-99.

We had 4" of snow in the early AM hours and virtually nothing all day until just recently around 7PM when a nice band set up and dropped an 1" and still coming down fairly decent. I was going to ask, what do I have to do to report totalls like the ones you posted. I'm just a coop observer but yet I never see my totals displayed, do I need to be a storm spotter? and If so, how can I sign up for something like that, would love to. I'm assuming I would need to go to a class in state college at the NWS?

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PottercountyWXobserver

PottercountyWXobserver

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We had 4" of snow in the early AM hours and virtually nothing all day until just recently around 7PM when a nice band set up and dropped an 1" and still coming down fairly decent. I was going to ask, what do I have to do to report totalls like the ones you posted. I'm just a coop observer but yet I never see my totals displayed, do I need to be a storm spotter? and If so, how can I sign up for something like that, would love to. I'm assuming I would need to go to a class in state college at the NWS?

What are your thoughts on the upcoming storm for the weekend? I was thinking if the storm does cut into the lakes, with the recent snowpack the area could start out as a frozen mix. The 18z run looks even worse than the 12z run, was really hoping for this storm to transfer its energy to the coast to save us from the WAA.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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What are your thoughts on the upcoming storm for the weekend? I was thinking if the storm does cut into the lakes, with the recent snowpack the area could start out as a frozen mix. The 18z run looks even worse than the 12z run, was really hoping for this storm to transfer its energy to the coast to save us from the WAA.

Yea the 18z run of the GFS was pretty horrendous. Now the 12z kept central PA under mainly snow/frozen and had what I thought was a pretty reasonable solution. Right now I think that ultimately the storm will transfer to the coast and make for at least the typical snow to mix/rain back to snow type scenario. The afternoon HPC progs seem to also be leaning in this direction as well. I don't think this thing would solely run a primary into the Lakes and make a mainly mix to rain scenario. There's liable to be at least some kind of coastal reflection or secondary development as the storm is going to be looking for the greatest baroclinic boundary.. and its likely not going to find it in the Ohio Valley. Any kind of reflection to the coast will help keep this area under the gun for a snow and/or wintry mix event for most of the duration.

I've noticed that once again the Euro I believe had been the first one to suggest anything west of the mountains after both it and the GFS buried this thing offshore for a few cycles..and I have seen that particular issue play out the previous couple Great Lakes cutters that have occured. Now most modelling either has a GLC or miller-B storm scenario. Still about 5-6 days away, so there will likely be a lot more major swings in the next couple days yet.

About the spotter classes, usually NWS holds a few talks per year in various places where u can become a spotter. They usually post in the website times and locations. I"m kinda surprised they wouldn't use your totals if your a co-op. Not sure how you report in your co-op obs, but If you wanted to report anything you can always call in to the office as well.

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