Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

[PennMan]

I'm hoping a few bands break off and give me some snow accum tonight-Tuesday.

Your sig is too large, BTW.

[2001kx]

just issued a winter weather advisory for my area.

5-8 with locally 10 ?

i dont know about those totals?

Winter weather advisory in effect from 5 pm today until 7 pm est Tuesday,

The NWS in state college has issued a winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow which is in effect from 5 pm today until 7 pm est Tuesday.

Location, clearfield and elk county.

Precipitation type, snow

Accumulations, 5 to 8 inches, with locally higher storm total amounts of around 10 inches possible within the more persistent bands of snow squalls.

Timing, a prolonged period of upslope snow showers and localized bands of heavier squalls will occur late today and tonight, continuing into early Tuesday evening.

Winds, west to northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts between 25 to 35 mph.

Impacts, snow covered roads and hazardous travel. Localized low visibilities of one quarter of a mile or less due to narrow bands of heavy snow and blowing snow.

Temperatures, upper teens to mid 20s with wind chills in the single digits near zero.

[PennMan]

just issued a winter weather advisory for my area.

5-8 with locally 10 ?

i dont know about those totals?

Winter weather advisory in effect from 5 pm today until 7 pm est Tuesday,

The NWS in state college has issued a winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow which is in effect from 5 pm today until 7 pm est Tuesday.

Location, clearfield and elk county.

Precipitation type, snow

Accumulations, 5 to 8 inches, with locally higher storm total amounts of around 10 inches possible within the more persistent bands of snow squalls.

Timing, a prolonged period of upslope snow showers and localized bands of heavier squalls will occur late today and tonight, continuing into early Tuesday evening.

Winds, west to northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts between 25 to 35 mph.

Impacts, snow covered roads and hazardous travel. Localized low visibilities of one quarter of a mile or less due to narrow bands of heavy snow and blowing snow.

Temperatures, upper teens to mid 20s with wind chills in the single digits near zero.

Definitely wouldn't be surprised to see someone outside the normal snowbelt areas receive that much....this isn't your average 24hr bout of squalls and snow showers. A few years ago(Nov. 2008 I think?) there was an amazing LE band with a Lake Huron connection that dumped 6-10" over the entire eastern tip of Centre County, and 2-7" over almost all of Snyder County, just SE of there.

[MAG5035]

just issued a winter weather advisory for my area.

5-8 with locally 10 ?

i dont know about those totals?

Winter weather advisory in effect from 5 pm today until 7 pm est Tuesday,

The NWS in state college has issued a winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow which is in effect from 5 pm today until 7 pm est Tuesday.

Location, clearfield and elk county.

Precipitation type, snow

Accumulations, 5 to 8 inches, with locally higher storm total amounts of around 10 inches possible within the more persistent bands of snow squalls.

Timing, a prolonged period of upslope snow showers and localized bands of heavier squalls will occur late today and tonight, continuing into early Tuesday evening.

Winds, west to northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts between 25 to 35 mph.

Impacts, snow covered roads and hazardous travel. Localized low visibilities of one quarter of a mile or less due to narrow bands of heavy snow and blowing snow.

Temperatures, upper teens to mid 20s with wind chills in the single digits near zero.

The totals are spread throughout the next 48-54 hours whereas the criteria for reaching the winter storm warning threshold are either 6 inches within 12 hours or 8" within 24 hours. It'd be nice if some of that worked down this way.

Speaking of which, have a moderately heavy bout of snow attm, which is quickly put a light dusting on the parts of the ground/driveway that don't have snow.. CCX still out, so not sure of how things are evolving with the snowbands.

[EasternUSWX]

Your sig is too large, BTW.

It let me post it so I guess it is fine.

[PennMan]

It let me post it so I guess it is fine.

It goes off the edge of the post area on my screen, at least.

[2001kx]

The totals are spread throughout the next 48-54 hours whereas the criteria for reaching the winter storm warning threshold are either 6 inches within 12 hours or 8" within 24 hours.

i understand that...but i dont think my area has ever seen totals that high in LE .

would be nice but i just dont see it happening (hope my gut feeling is wrong though)

well i guess if you think about it 2 / 2.5 inches a day would get me to those totals so i suppose its not that crazy of an idea.

[MAG5035]

i understand that...but i dont think my area has ever seen totals that high in LE .

would be nice but i just dont see it happening (hope my gut feeling is wrong though)

well i guess if you think about it 2 / 2.5 inches a day would get me to those totals so i suppose its not that crazy of an idea.

Yea with how consistent the favorable trajectories are supposed to be the next couple days, certainly plausible. I'm sure the overall totals are going to vary a good bit across that large county too, with the usual suspects getting that maximum 8-10 inches while most folks see more in the way of advisory type totals.

[2001kx]

Yea with how consistent the favorable trajectories are supposed to be the next couple days, certainly plausible. I'm sure the overall totals are going to vary a good bit across that large county too, with the usual suspects getting that maximum 8-10 inches while most folks see more in the way of advisory type totals.

when did you become a met?

i dont remember you being a met last winter on eastern?

[2001kx]

from the NWS on the potential.

12Z...12KM WRFARW SHOWS THE PERSISTENT FETCH FROM LAKE MICHIGAN

AND WRN LAKE ERIE RIGHT INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS

PERIOD. ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED BAND WITH A LAKE HURON/CENTRAL LAKE

ERIE FETCH FORMS AFTER 20Z AND INTENSIFIES AFTER DUSK CLOSE TO THE

ROUTE 322 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR KFIG...THROUGH KUNV TWD KMDT. THIS

POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR

ITS ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE STRETCH OF I-80 IN CLEARFIELD AND CENTRE

COUNTIES. A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL NEAR KFIG AND KUNV

LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING /WITH COATING TO ONE INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE

WELL TO THE SE OF KUNV/...SHOULD THIS BAND FORM AS THE SHORT RANGE

WRF/HRRR MODELS SUGGEST.

[MAG5035]

when did you become a met?

i dont remember you being a met last winter on eastern?

I just graduated with the bachelor's over the summer, so i'm a newbie haha.

[2001kx]

I just graduated with the bachelor's over the summer, so i'm a newbie haha.

congratulations

[JamieOber]

i understand that...but i dont think my area has ever seen totals that high in LE .

would be nice but i just dont see it happening (hope my gut feeling is wrong though)

well i guess if you think about it 2 / 2.5 inches a day would get me to those totals so i suppose its not that crazy of an idea.

I thought you had a few instances last year.

Around Philipsburg got around a foot from the one event in early Jan last year.

[Blizzard92]

Latest wrfarw/hrrr and NAM indicates that the prime period of

heaviest snowfall will begin late this evening as the subsidence

inversion base continues to lift above 10 kft above ground level...then becomes

non-existent afterward. Increasing uvvel nestled within the

height/favorable thermal ribbon for dendritic snow growth will bring

increasing intensity and southeastward expansion of narrow snow

squall bands. A few of these bands could penetrate 50 nm or so southeast of

kunv tonight...bringing up to a few inches of snow in places that

normally don't experience significant snow squall bands. The

anticipated squall band late today and tonight could be close

to...and parallel with Route 322 from kfig and kunv...southeast to near

kcxy.

CTP's latest discussion...

[2001kx]

I thought you had a few instances last year.

Around Philipsburg got around a foot from the one event in early Jan last year.

i do remember that last year but i only remember 4 inches for that period(but i could easily be wrong).

i didnt save a record of it but if eastern was still up i could check my sig from last year with my totals on it?

i know we didnt even have close to a foot here.

what did you end up with during last years LE?

[PSU8315]

i understand that...but i dont think my area has ever seen totals that high in LE .

would be nice but i just dont see it happening (hope my gut feeling is wrong though)

well i guess if you think about it 2 / 2.5 inches a day would get me to those totals so i suppose its not that crazy of an idea.

I had 4-7" across the western 2/3rds of Clearfield County, so I was glad to see them finally issue an advisory.

It's been snowing pretty good in Altoona and it seems to be snowing across all of Blair County. Getting reports of accidents due to icy roads around town, including a 6-car accident on I-99 near Route 22.

Hopefully CTP gets the radar back up soon...

[EasternUSWX]

Any mets think a few bands will affect Franklin county tonight and allow for some accumulation?

[PSU8315]

Any mets think a few bands will affect Franklin county tonight and allow for some accumulation?

I doubt it. Even if we get longer bands of snow with a Huron connection tonight or tomorrow, those tend to orient from State College to Lancaster and not get down to Franklin County.

Probably just some occasional flurries down your way...

[JamieOber]

i do remember that last year but i only remember 4 inches for that period(but i could easily be wrong).

i didnt save a record of it but if eastern was still up i could check my sig from last year with my totals on it?

i know we didnt even have close to a foot here.

what did you end up with during last years LE?

We got like 1-2 inches every day but it was like 5-6 after all the settling. We were fortunate.

We got invited to a party at a person we know who lives near the State Police barracks near Philipsburg, and it was amazing how much more they got and only were like 8-9 miles away. They got buried.

We had a good snow shower that put down almost a half inch earlier.

[EasternUSWX]

I doubt it. Even if we get longer bands of snow with a Huron connection tonight or tomorrow, those tend to orient from State College to Lancaster and not get down to Franklin County.

Probably just some occasional flurries down your way...

I picked up 4" form that kind of set up before.

[MAG5035]

I was napping for awhile and just got around to looking outside a bit ago.. and man did things change around here. About an inch of wind driven powder. Snows lightened up attm, so must've went through some kind of snow band at some point. It's weird not having the doppler radar handy to watch things.

[EasternUSWX]

Wonder when radar is coming back up. This sucks.

[JamieOber]

I was napping for awhile and just got around to looking outside a bit ago.. and man did things change around here. About an inch of wind driven powder. Snows lightened up attm, so must've went through some kind of snow band at some point. It's weird not having the doppler radar handy to watch things.

Wonder if that was the same one that went through here. We got a bit over 1/2 inch. Light snow now.

Wonder when radar is coming back up. This sucks.

No kidding, man. It's weird and sucks and everything else.

[PennMan]

Wonder if that was the same one that went through here. We got a bit over 1/2 inch. Light snow now.

No kidding, man. It's weird and sucks and everything else.

Ugh...yeah...it's bothersome knowing there are LES bands into Central PA and not being able to see where they are or how they are moving. Hopefully they can get it back up ASAP.

Some very light snow here as well. 26.5° at my apartment.

[PSU8315]

Looks like it still could be a little while on the radar...

KCCX WSR-88D RADAR REMAINS DOWN UFN. MULTIPLE T1 LINES AND CIRCUITS ARE DOWN IN THE AREA. VERIZON-TELCO IS AWARE OF THE PROBLEM AND CONTINUES TO TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE.

A SIGNIFICANT SBN SATELLITE SIGNAL STRENGTH ISSUE ALSO CONTINUES TO SEVERELY DISRUPT DATA FLOW INTO NWS AWIPS SYSTEMS. WATCHES WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISSEMINATED OVER THE AWIPS WAN. EXTERNAL SOURCES INCLUDING NWS WEBSITES COULD ALSO BE MISSING DATA. GLOBAL AND NATIONAL SATELLITE PROVIDERS ARE WORKING TO ESTABLISH AN ALTERNATIVE.-- End Changed Discussion --

[dcfox1]

Looks like it still could be a little while on the radar...

KCCX WSR-88D RADAR REMAINS DOWN UFN. MULTIPLE T1 LINES AND CIRCUITS ARE DOWN IN THE AREA. VERIZON-TELCO IS AWARE OF THE PROBLEM AND CONTINUES TO TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE.

A SIGNIFICANT SBN SATELLITE SIGNAL STRENGTH ISSUE ALSO CONTINUES TO SEVERELY DISRUPT DATA FLOW INTO NWS AWIPS SYSTEMS. WATCHES WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISSEMINATED OVER THE AWIPS WAN. EXTERNAL SOURCES INCLUDING NWS WEBSITES COULD ALSO BE MISSING DATA. GLOBAL AND NATIONAL SATELLITE PROVIDERS ARE WORKING TO ESTABLISH AN ALTERNATIVE.-- End Changed Discussion --

The bad part is I understand that

[EasternUSWX]

Looking at the Pittsburgh radar a nice band is forming off of Lake Erie.

[psnnstater77]

Looking at the Pittsburgh radar a nice band is forming off of Lake Erie.

Looks like the wetsren highlands could get socked with this band..

Looking at cams, I so wish I was still living in Gallitizin, looks like parts of 22 and 36 is pretty snow covered.

[EasternUSWX]

Band is really working the Laurel Highlands now. Hopefully some can push east of there.

[MAG5035]

Dominant band in the region at this point is clearly the one just above Pittsburgh that is nosing into the Laurels in southern Cambria/Northern Somerset. The webcams around the Johnstown area on Route 219 show the more consistent rates and snowcovered roads. CCX radar is finally up, but it still isn't showing much down in that area.. and it usually doesn't in these lake effect situations. Pittsburgh nexrad seems to be a better choice to watch this particular snowband, and it appears that it may start focusing a slight bit more on northern Somerset County.

The rest of the banded activity in Central PA seems to be rather disorganized attm. Seems to be another primary band up in the north central but probably not as strong as the other band currently. Some signs of some more action cropping up in between near KUNV, appears to be mainly light snowfall.

On the weekend storm...

Had a look at the 0z GFS and it has a miller B...ish solution with a broad low that stays mainly south of PA and eventually gets is act together off the Jersey shore. There would be precip issues at least under I-80 with the GFS solution. Just seen 0z European, not really sure what to make of it. Takes a fairly robust low from eastern Iowa into the central lakes and then developing a secondary coastal low off the VA coast by h168. It then takes it east off the coast to a point and the develops into a significant low that retrogrades back into Long Island. And this whole evolution encompasses hour 144 all the way to 240. Click HERE for the loop of the model run. I haven't ventured onto any other threads to look at anyone else's take on that mess yet.. but I'm personally throwing away the 0z Euro. The Sunday 12z run had something sort of like the 0z GFS, except that it just takes the low into the eastern lakes with no secondary. The trend the last few cycles has been to bring this low back west after having this as either a coastal or a fish storm. Plenty of time and there will likely be plenty more solutions. My current take is that this storm likely resembles more of what the 0z GFS is showing.