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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I


PennMan

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Wow what a storm, very impressed. The storm droped 3.08" of rain and then 4.4" of wet snow on the backside. It left my area a mess though, worse flooding sense 1996 here. This flood was nothing compared to 1972, doubt we will see something like that for sometime. The snow started right after 8AM and continued until noon. I wasn't expecting such a fast transition and as much snow, I will take it :thumbsup:

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Just came across some pics thru the grapevine on facebook on yesterdays flooding on the Susquehanna West Branch.

post-1507-0-27287900-1291336482.jpg

post-1507-0-39456100-1291337383.jpg

Not sure if any of you north-central guys are at all familiar with that tiny town somewhere in the woods of Clinton County known as Renovo. I used to go there alot when I was a kid/teen since we had family up there, so I'm familiar with how high that bridge is when the West Branch is at normal levels. That's pretty wild, I wish i had a good picture to compare that with. The crest there only touched into moderate levels, and it doesn't appear the flooding was too severe on the more vulnerable side of town. I can't even imagine what a crest in the "major" category would look like there.

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MAG, I have been to Renovo and I can say its in the middle of NOWHERE, I think there is more dear to human population. Right near there, there is also small town called Bucktail. Their elevation is quite low, so I could see pretty bad fooding. We ended up seeing flooding that hasn't been seen in this area sense 1996, picked up 3.02" of rain and then 4.4" of snow. Its a good thing we didn't have any snowcover when this storm rolled through or it could have been devastating.

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Wow those pictures from Renovo are wild... My grandmother lives there so I am very familar with that town... My kids were not happy to see there playground under water.. That is there favorite stop when we visit.... At least this didn't happen during Flaming Foliage!!

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Looks like there could be some nice snow bands setting up as the NW wind aligns well over Lakes Huron and Erie, with some very cold air as the current clipper bombs and moves NW into Maine. These are the kind of setups that can produce a heavy lake effect band or two well east of the Alleghenies and maybe even east of the Susquehanna under optimal conditions. I remember a few of these dumping an unforecasted few or several inches of snow in State College, since they also don't shift very quickly. The NAM has been pretty steady on forecasting this kind of setup and alignment for a few runs now, with a band making it well into central and even eastern PA during the best alignments. During periods where the flow isn't as well aligned, you'll see tons of squalls and smaller bands all over the area. Without a doubt though, the snowbelts and the Laurel Highlands will cash in with up to a few feet of powder over the next few days. Should be some truly epic conditions there.

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I'll take it...all of it :thumbsup:

whats your take on the long range around the 15th.

if you have even looked that far ahead yet.

I can't say I've taken a good look that far down the road -- most of my time and energy is being taken by the lake-effect outbreak. That being said, if there would be anything significant, I think it would have to be next weekend (11th/12th). The 12z Euro and 18z GFS (perhaps a bit overdone?) both indicate something in that time frame. It looks like the cold reloads with that big 1040 high sliding down starting the 13th. Once we get in the middle of that trough (by the 14th and 15th), almost anything coastal would be well offshore. So, I think our best shot will be in between cold waves next weekend. If the Euro continues to show something in the next few runs, I'll really keep an eye on it. I'll be interested to see how much tamer the storm is on the 00z GFS tonight vs. the 18z run.

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CTP...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --RATHER DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES

AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS TONIGHT

WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS AT THIS POINT. NNW WINDS HAVE PICKED UP

SOME IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CLIPPER STORM TRACKS TOWARDS THE

CAROLINA COAST AND GRADIENT INCREASES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE

OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY LEADING TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT

SNOW EVENT FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN PA...AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS

FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THAN TYPICALLY SEE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT

SNOW FALL AS LAPSE RATES INTO CENTRAL AND EVEN SE PA GET QUITE LOW

SUPPORTING SOME ORGANIZED BANDING PERHAPS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS

OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY FROM A LAKE HURON

CONNECTION BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

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Light snow here 34 deg still no accum. And radar is down..

Yea this is a heck of day to lose the radar. I've noticed that Buffalo's Nexrad is currently unavailable as well. That's also limiting the ability of the regional radars to see much in central PA as well.

CTP's update on the situation

EQUIPMENT...

STATE COLLEGE RADAR HAS SUFFERED A FAILURE OF THE T1 LINE FROM THE

RDA TO THE ORPG. OUR ELECTRONIC TECHNICIAN HAS CONTACTED THE TELCO

COMPNAY AND THE PROBLEM IS BEING WORKED ON. TIME TO RETORE DATA

FLOW IN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

Meanwhile, there is a couple snowcovered spots in Cambria County looking at the webcams.

Chickaree Summit (Route 22)

post-1507-0-93325700-1291573352.jpg

Theres a couple similar spots down around Johnstown. So far doesn't appear to be anything too overly nasty, but that'll be changing as the day wears on.

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Yea this is a heck of day to lose the radar. I've noticed that Buffalo's Nexrad is currently unavailable as well. That's also limiting the ability of the regional radars to see much in central PA as well.

CTP's update on the situation

Meanwhile, there is a couple snowcovered spots in Cambria County looking at the webcams.

Theres a couple similar spots down around Johnstown. So far doesn't appear to be anything too overly nasty, but that'll be changing as the day wears on.

Yeah, I saw that a bit ago and just shook my head.....of course it goes down today. Guess any bands/squalls that reach State College will be a surprise. :lol:

I'm hoping for an inch or two in State College over the next few days...don't think that should be too difficult to accomplish.

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Also noteworthy in the noon update was the mention of particular bands developing on the short range higher res models. One band hooked up with Lake Michigan and western Lake Erie coming into the lower Laurels and the development of another band over the I-80 corridor and into KUNV. The potential band modeled by the 12km wrf that eventually sags into the I-80 has a decent Lake Huron connection.. and it's plausible if it materialized more winter weather advisories would be needed for counties like Clearfield, Elk, and Cameron (I'm surprised they don't have headlines regardless) and potentially portions of Centre. The setup is there to have that classic long snowband diagonally across the middle of the state, while the higher ground of the southern Laurels do their thing . Should be interesting to see if this materializes.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/LATEST HRRR AND 12KM NAM SHOW THE FAVORABLE OVER-

LAKE FETCH SETTING UP TODAY...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DEEP

MOISTURE/HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS...AND CLOUD TOPS TEMPS OF -14 TO

-18C BEING RIGHT WITHIN THE RANGE FOR MAX DENDRITIC GROWTH

12Z...12KM WRFARW SHOWS THE PERSISTENT FETCH FROM LAKE MICHIGAN

AND WRN LAKE ERIE RIGHT INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS

PERIOD. ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED BAND WITH A LAKE HURON/CENTRAL LAKE

ERIE FETCH FORMS AFTER 20Z AND INTENSIFIES AFTER DUSK CLOSE TO THE

ROUTE 322 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR KFIG...THROUGH KUNV TWD KMDT. THIS

POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR

ITS ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE STRETCH OF I-80 IN CLEARFIELD AND CENTRE

COUNTIES. A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL NEAR KFIG AND KUNV

LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING /WITH COATING TO ONE INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE

WELL TO THE SE OF KUNV/...SHOULD THIS BAND FORM AS THE SHORT RANGE

WRF/HRRR MODELS SUGGEST.

FOR THE NW SNOWBELT...THE LACK OF THE INITIAL GOOD CONNECTION WITH

THE MEAT OF LAKE HURON CHANGES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE MEAN

BOUNDARY LAYER WIND BACKS ABOUT 20 DEG TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS

WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES.

12km WRF Loop

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Also noteworthy in the noon update was the mention of particular bands developing on the short range higher res models. One band hooked up with Lake Michigan and western Lake Erie coming into the lower Laurels and the development of another band over the I-80 corridor and into KUNV. The potential band modeled by the 12km wrf that eventually sags into the I-80 has a decent Lake Huron connection.. and it's plausible if it materialized more winter weather advisories would be needed for counties like Clearfield, Elk, and Cameron (I'm surprised they don't have headlines regardless) and potentially portions of Centre. The setup is there to have that classic long snowband diagonally across the middle of the state, while the higher ground of the southern Laurels do their thing . Should be interesting to see if this materializes.

12km WRF Loop

I'm hoping a few bands break off and give me some snow accum tonight-Tuesday.

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