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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I


PennMan

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Yes, even Joe Lundberg (the warminsta himself) indicated snow/sleet here in our area overnight. I was a bit surprised to hear that this morning.

Even though the air temperature isn't impressively cold, it felt colder this morning than what the thermometer indicated. Dry, cold air mass in place...

Yes it did. the thermo in my Tahoe said 36, but it did felt cooler.

It really got windy when that front came through last night. Thought my gas grille was gonna fly through my french doors

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The dry air makes this forecast even more difficult. It will eat up some of the initial precip, but the cooling that will take place as the column cools from evaporation could help keep the colder air in place, especially if the precipitation comes down hard.

UNV forecast sounding from 12z for 10pm tonight -- the huge dry tongue showing pretty nicely. Both models really don't fully get rid of the dry air until close to 7:00am tomorrow...

f15.png

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Yes it did. the thermo in my Tahoe said 36, but it did felt cooler.

It really got windy when that front came through last night. Thought my gas grille was gonna fly through my french doors

The "circle jerk" comment = priceless.

What a fiasco in off topic.

Hope to see something other than rain in the morning. Have a great holiday everyone!

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First advisories of the season, fresh off the press..

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

310 PM EST WED NOV 24 2010

PAZ004-010-017-024>026-033>036-250800-

/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.101125T0800Z-101125T1600Z/

WARREN-ELK-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-

FULTON-FRANKLIN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...DUBOIS...

CLEARFIELD...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...SOMERSET...

BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG

310 PM EST WED NOV 24 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST

THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...

WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATION...LAUREL HIGHLANDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW AND SLEET. UP TO ONE

TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...RAIN AND SLEET ARRIVING IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS...

CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET BY DAWN. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL

CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE BECOMING PLAIN RAIN BY MIDDAY.

* WINDS...EAST AT 5 MPH.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY

FROM A COATING OF ICE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND

OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST. STAY TUNED TO

NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND

AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

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Happy Thanksgiving folks, so far this morning KJST (Johnstown) and KAOO (Altoona) are reporting light snow falling. Here in Bellwood had a quick bout of light snow and right now just some flurries. Took the handheld and the temp is actually just a shade under 38ºF with a 23ºF dewpoint here. Plenty of room to fall toward freezing once we get more appreciable precip. The precip on radar still a bit broken and spotty but it should be interesting when it starts building in better into Central PA in the next several hours. CTP held serve and maintained advisory package at the 10pm update.

CTP 10:31pm update:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

IT IS ALREADY SNOWING OVER SOMERSET COUNTY PER ONE RELIABLE

SOURCE. LOCAL WRF12KM FROM 18Z AND LATEST NAM12KM HANDLING THE

ONSET AND P-TYPE VERY WELL. THIS ALSO VERIFIES/JUSTIFIES THE

FORECAST IN PLACE ALREADY. PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD E/N THRU THE

NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE DELAYED JUST A FEW HOURS WHILE THE LOWER

ATMOS MOISTENS UP...BUT ALL IS ON TRACK. WILL JUST SHINE UP THE

WORDING IN THE ZFP AND WSW. SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY DAWN

OVER THE SW HALF OF THE AREA.

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Happy Thanksgiving folks, so far this morning KJST (Johnstown) and KAOO (Altoona) are reporting light snow falling. Here in Bellwood had a quick bout of light snow and right now just some flurries. Took the handheld and the temp is actually just a shade under 38ºF with a 23ºF dewpoint here. Plenty of room to fall toward freezing once we get more appreciable precip. The precip on radar still a bit broken and spotty but it should be interesting when it starts building in better into Central PA in the next several hours. CTP held serve and maintained advisory package at the 10pm update.

CTP 10:31pm update:

Yeah hopefully the dry air doesn't eat up to much of the precipitation rolling in. Looks like some of the precipitation to my west may be virga. My temperature is currently 33.8°F and with a dew point of 22°F. Seeming how the dp is so low, once we do end up getting some descent precipitation to get here it begins to cool the temps down to near the dp. I'm at least expecting 2" of snow and maybe a tenth of an inch of some ZR on top.

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Is it me or does it seem like the Low pressure system over Missouri isn't moving as far north as previously thought? It looks like the High to the north is blocking it from totally cutting up through the lakes. Right now the high is in perfect location for some nice CAD. Although I'm expecting the precipitation to completely turn over to rain, I'm curious to see how long I can stick with the frozen stuff before the switch.

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Yeah hopefully the dry air doesn't eat up to much of the precipitation rolling in. Looks like some of the precipitation to my west may be virga. My temperature is currently 33.8°F and with a dew point of 22°F. Seeming how the dp is so low, once we do end up getting some descent precipitation to get here it begins to cool the temps down to near the dp. I'm at least expecting 2" of snow and maybe a tenth of an inch of some ZR on top.

Should have no worries soon as that heavier precip to the west and southwest will eventually get up to you. When CTP updated the advisories around 10pm they actually did tweak the start and end times for particular groups of counties. For Potter County the advisory actually does not start till 9am and lasts all the way till 11pm. So it appears you might have mixed precipitation all day up where your at. Not sure if you'll get to 2 inches since the warm air aloft will probably get up there and change the precip to other things by afternoon, but then again did not expect things to begin as snow and continue to be snow down here in Altoona and Johnstown either. Will be fun to watch.

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Should have no worries soon as that heavier precip to the west and southwest will eventually get up to you. When CTP updated the advisories around 10pm they actually did tweak the start and end times for particular groups of counties. For Potter County the advisory actually does not start till 9am and lasts all the way till 11pm. So it appears you might have mixed precipitation all day up where your at. Not sure if you'll get to 2 inches since the warm air aloft will probably get up there and change the precip to other things by afternoon, but then again did not expect things to begin as snow and continue to be snow down here in Altoona and Johnstown either. Will be fun to watch.

Yeah, you just never know, i have learned never to underestimate the power of CAD. It seems like we are the lasts ones to completely change over, we even usually beat out BFD. Your right the WAA may cause everything to either be sleet or ZR. I will take whatever I can get as I know this really isn't a good scenario at all for descent snows. Its going to be a rough winter if we keep getting these storm systems cutting up through the lakes. The HP to the north may stay in place longer due to the nice blocking taking place in the maritimes. We will just have to see what happens, btw congrats on the met degree, PSU is a great place, I'm going to back and finish up my met degree in a few years.

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Yeah, you just never know, i have learned never to underestimate the power of CAD. It seems like we are the lasts ones to completely change over, we even usually beat out BFD. Your right the WAA may cause everything to either be sleet or ZR. I will take whatever I can get as I know this really isn't a good scenario at all for descent snows. Its going to be a rough winter if we keep getting these storm systems cutting up through the lakes. The HP to the north may stay in place longer due to the nice blocking taking place in the maritimes. We will just have to see what happens, btw congrats on the met degree, PSU is a great place, I'm going to back and finish up my met degree in a few years.

Thank you, yea it was a long time coming finally getting that degree. Def a challenging major. Now the challenge is trying to get a job in the field haha.

Yea a lot of times the CAD can hang on better than advertised and make for either a longer period of wintry precip or an even more bone chilling rain. Def not a fan of the return of the GLC domination so far this winter, though its early yet and plenty of opportunity to get in a better setup.

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Mix of sleet and some pretty large flakes here now, 30 mile ENE of Harrisburg. There's a slight coating of mostly sleet on some surfaces. Currently 37.8°.

Looks like some heavier sleet/snow NW of Harrisburg where we're headed for Thanksgiving dinner in a bit.

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Mix of sleet and some pretty large flakes here now, 30 mile ENE of Harrisburg. There's a slight coating of mostly sleet on some surfaces. Currently 37.8°.

Looks like some heavier sleet/snow NW of Harrisburg where we're headed for Thanksgiving dinner in a bit.

had sleet here this am as well. about 7ish. plain rain now..

Happy Thanksgiving all!

edit----Its sleeting again

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had sleet here this am as well. about 7ish. plain rain now..

Happy Thanksgiving all!

edit----Its sleeting again

All sleet here now...some pellets are pretty rough...guess a few flakes are not 100% melted when they hit the low level cold air. If we had gotten some decent precip in here earlier this morning we may have had a chance for some minor accumulations. I'll take the coating of sleet on the deck, mulch and grass though. Nice to see a few flakes on Thanksgiving.

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Awefully dissapointing event for me, I really don't think the Winter weather advisory even met the requirements here. The CAD really never stood its ground here, but places to the east faired better. On top of the cold air being scurried out, the north section of potter county had little precipitation to work with. At the moment my total stands at a paltry 0.30" while places just 30 miles to the south based on radar returns are up around an inch and a half :( . btw canderson hope you are enjoying Munich, I want to visit Germany and Austria real bad!

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About 6 inches of snowing Munich today, and still snowing at 5 pm.

What's impressive is the cold, a high if 29 today and nearly all of Germany won't see temps get above freezing for at least a week. Crazy bout of arctic air over Europe right now.

Awesome for you. How will this affect your travel / sight seeing plans?

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It won't. Unlike Harrisburg and the surrounding area, these people know how to handle snow. I swear every road and sidewalk was never covered more than a dusting despite some good snowfall rates late afternoon.

Tomorrow we are going to Garmisch and the highest pointin the German Alps. Lots of pics when we return.

Saw guys had a windy day, I dont envy you there.

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