canderson Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yep, no zr. North of them going toward Texarkana and east to Shreveport have quite a bit, but Longview lucked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just got in and looking at things after working pretty much all afternoon. Have seen that NWS Pittsburgh has decided to throw up winter storm watches for potential of 6+. In general, models are in pretty good agreement bringing precip shield over most of PA, and considering decent ratios the amounts would likely translate to a widespread high end advisory (4-6") type deal. Once east of Harrisburg some the potential for more than 6" starts going up. I'm not really concerned at the moment of anyone getting shafted to the point where the "snow hole zone" lives on. Henry M's map is too light IMO, I think all of PA sees at least advisory snow...although somewhere in central or east central PA the potential for a bit of a underachieving zone (3 maybe 4 inches) is there. Anywasy, I'd rather see that on his map over a 6+ CPA bullseye for superstition sake anyways. If we can keep the Ohio Valley low in decent shape for a while and a decent timing of the coastal transfer we can hang the shield over the area and maximize our potential. I'll have a look at the 0z suite and take a crack at a map and/or selected cities amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Henry M's map is too light IMO, You don't hear this every day! Looking forward to your map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You don't hear this every day! Looking forward to your map. It just seeems that with all that moisture down there and with what seems to be a slower speed, that it this storm would crank up with the addition of the northern system. But I agree that those were positive words that I like to hear as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0z NAM wetter. Get this: it gives NYC .89" IN SIX HOURS. Haven't heard totals for our neck of the woods but should be a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0z NAM wetter. Get this: it gives NYC .89" IN SIX HOURS. Haven't heard totals for our neck of the woods but should be a bit higher. Use this: http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My final call comes out tomorrow afternoon. But, if things keep up I need to up totals of my first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My final call comes out tomorrow afternoon. But, if things keep up I need to up totals of my first call. That's not a bad thing ! Now we just need to have the other models in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That's not a bad thing ! Now we just need to have the other models in agreement. I don't think that's possible. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This was written before the 0z NAM, but it's rather depressing to see (even though it's somewhat expected). .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DYNAMIC WINTER WEATHE SYTEM APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST. INITIALLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF NC/VA COAST TUESDAY EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH STORMS THIS WINTER...BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE CWA LIMITING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS AT PRESENT TIME AS IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITH THIS EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This was written before the 0z NAM, but it's rather depressing to see (even though it's somewhat expected). .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DYNAMIC WINTER WEATHE SYTEM APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST. INITIALLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF NC/VA COAST TUESDAY EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH STORMS THIS WINTER...BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE CWA LIMITING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS AT PRESENT TIME AS IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITH THIS EVENT. CTP never issues things till last second anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They are very conservative, but it is a smart approach. I just wish they issued maps like Mt Hilly. Atlanta is a disaster right now, roads are all impassable and full of cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 CTP never issues things till last second anyways. You are correct as they can be a bit conservative and cautious. That being said, I'd expect advisories/watches to be issued by noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is what I got for a first call. Great map. Only change I have would be to increase the totals a bit in Philly area. Otherwise looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Great map. Only change I have would be to increase the totals a bit in Philly area. Otherwise looks great. Thanks. The models are once again acting up. Who knows what to go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 At this point I will take anything over 4" . We haven't experienced a snow storm over 4" sense the big rainstorm that came and turned over to snow in the begging of december. I'm just hoping the primary low can hang on a little longer and give some decent ratios to maximize the snow amounts for PA. You guys are right, dryslotting looks to be a problem for central PA. WWA at least looks certain at this point , oh man what I would do to see a WSW this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here's my first rough crack at this thing. I thought EasternUSWX's map looked pretty good to me although I confined 2-4 zone to the southern south-central. Didn't totally buy into the 0z NAM being very robust and edged eastern-most PA with a 6-8. Typical Laurels situation, a few of the high ground locations may see some of that 6-8 range. All in all took a bit of a compromise between the GFS and NAM and utilized 21z SREF mean. Just read Tombo on the new Euro and it keeps .25-.50 total over all of PA and I believe the .5-.75 near Philly.. so i'm happy with the map at this point. I'd be surprised if CTP went the watch route like PBZ, but I believe everyone in the CTP forecast area gets a solid advisory snowfall. Potential busts of course is with the precip placement, that hole crops up here and there in the SREF's (as well as the GFS) in various sizes. Since the SREF mean, the NAM and now the Euro keep all of PA in a .25-50, I didn't go crazy with that 2-4 zone. Things could go either way, we could have a very quick transfer that yanks everything east and thus expanding that 2-4 zone or worse. On the other hand we could end up with better QPF and/or a longer lasting Oh Valley low that hangs things together and gives everybody at least that 4-6. Ratios could play a factor too for some folks. Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here's my first rough crack at this thing. I thought EasternUSWX's map looked pretty good to me although I confined 2-4 zone to the southern south-central. Didn't totally buy into the 0z NAM being very robust and edged eastern-most PA with a 6-8. Typical Laurels situation, a few of the high ground locations may see some of that 6-8 range. All in all took a bit of a compromise between the GFS and NAM and utilized 21z SREF mean. Just read Tombo on the new Euro and it keeps .25-.50 total over all of PA and I believe the .5-.75 near Philly.. so i'm happy with the map at this point. I'd be surprised if CTP went the watch route like PBZ, but I believe everyone in the CTP forecast area gets a solid advisory snowfall. Potential busts of course is with the precip placement, that hole crops up here and there in the SREF's (as well as the GFS) in various sizes. Since the SREF mean, the NAM and now the Euro keep all of PA in a .25-50, I didn't go crazy with that 2-4 zone. Things could go either way, we could have a very quick transfer that yanks everything east and thus expanding that 2-4 zone or worse. On the other hand we could end up with better QPF and/or a longer lasting Oh Valley low that hangs things together and gives everybody at least that 4-6. Ratios could play a factor too for some folks. Map: looks good. 4-6 on top of my 5" i have now is fine by me. if i cant get the big one i will take a few small ones that add up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 CTP never issues things till last second anyways. You are correct as they can be a bit conservative and cautious. That being said, I'd expect advisories/watches to be issued by noon tomorrow. Late to the party again I see. I could also see nearly the whole CWA under just an advisory instead of a watch/warning going by some of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah. That below zero stuff is for the birds. I'm really liking how next Tues-Thurs is shaping up so far. We should all get some decent snow. Good call Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good call Tony Thanks for the props. It's nice to see an idea come to fruition from a week or so out! I hope the "hits" keep coming this month! Happy shoveling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What a fun couple days..2" Friday, another 1" Saturday, now this Tuesday / Wednesday Event. 2-4" / 3-5" whatever, i'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What a fun couple days..2" Friday, another 1" Saturday, now this Tuesday / Wednesday Event. 2-4" / 3-5" whatever, i'll take it. I'm cautiously looking forward to it as well, with one caveat...last winter, just about every snow overperformed down here. For all 3 of the biggies, the forecasted amounts kept getting ramped up leading into and during the storms. At least here where I live, every single snow this season thus far as underperformed. Years ago, I heard a met say that there was something to that, not sure if he was using technical expertise or just throwing something out there, but I have noticed that to be at least somewhat true over the years. I guess I have my doubts until I'm actually out there shovelling it...and I hope I get that chance, because I haven't had to even look for the shovel yet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What is the timing for us? Snow starts Tursday early afternoon and wraps ip very early Wed a.m.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 By the way, to you mets that post here in our thread...my heartfelt thanks goes out to each one of you. It's great having professional insight, reasoning, etc. to help us novices out with being objective looking at impending threats. The time you spend here is obviously voluntary on your part, and I'm sure that others have and would say the same thing...thank you all very much for your time and analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What is the timing for us? Snow starts Tursday early afternoon and wraps ip very early Wed a.m.? I've heard early Tuesday afternoon to late tomorrow evening...a 6 to 10 hour duration snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ok we are in the same page pretty much. Winder when CTP releases advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ok we are in the same page pretty much. Winder when CTP releases advisories. Barring any big changes positively or negatively, I would guess with their afternoon package. Really surprised that LWX went with WSW for the Baltimore metro area. Then again, so are most of the posters from that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 By the way, to you mets that post here in our thread...my heartfelt thanks goes out to each one of you. It's great having professional insight, reasoning, etc. to help us novices out with being objective looking at impending threats. The time you spend here is obviously voluntary on your part, and I'm sure that others have and would say the same thing...thank you all very much for your time and analysis! what he said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I have read others on this Miller B and saying we don't do so good with them. I was always under the understanding we do fairly well with a Miller B, over a Miller A? Thoughts? Or is this a Hybrid Miller B? ( i think thats what they call them) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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