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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I


PennMan

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Just got in and looking at things after working pretty much all afternoon. Have seen that NWS Pittsburgh has decided to throw up winter storm watches for potential of 6+. In general, models are in pretty good agreement bringing precip shield over most of PA, and considering decent ratios the amounts would likely translate to a widespread high end advisory (4-6") type deal. Once east of Harrisburg some the potential for more than 6" starts going up. I'm not really concerned at the moment of anyone getting shafted to the point where the "snow hole zone" lives on. Henry M's map is too light IMO, I think all of PA sees at least advisory snow...although somewhere in central or east central PA the potential for a bit of a underachieving zone (3 maybe 4 inches) is there. Anywasy, I'd rather see that on his map over a 6+ CPA bullseye for superstition sake anyways. :lol: If we can keep the Ohio Valley low in decent shape for a while and a decent timing of the coastal transfer we can hang the shield over the area and maximize our potential. I'll have a look at the 0z suite and take a crack at a map and/or selected cities amounts.

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You don't hear this every day! Looking forward to your map.

It just seeems that with all that moisture down there and with what seems to be a slower speed, that it this storm would crank up with the addition of the northern system. But I agree that those were positive words that I like to hear as well.

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This was written before the 0z NAM, but it's rather depressing to see (even though it's somewhat expected).

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

DYNAMIC WINTER WEATHE SYTEM APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL

SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST. INITIALLY STRONGER

SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS

OFF NC/VA COAST TUESDAY EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH STORMS

THIS WINTER...BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF

THE CWA LIMITING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER

PRODUCTS AT PRESENT TIME AS IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL STAY BELOW WARNING

CRITERIA WITH THIS EVENT.

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This was written before the 0z NAM, but it's rather depressing to see (even though it's somewhat expected).

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

DYNAMIC WINTER WEATHE SYTEM APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL

SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST. INITIALLY STRONGER

SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS

OFF NC/VA COAST TUESDAY EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH STORMS

THIS WINTER...BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF

THE CWA LIMITING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER

PRODUCTS AT PRESENT TIME AS IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL STAY BELOW WARNING

CRITERIA WITH THIS EVENT.

CTP never issues things till last second anyways.

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At this point I will take anything over 4" . We haven't experienced a snow storm over 4" sense the big rainstorm that came and turned over to snow in the begging of december. I'm just hoping the primary low can hang on a little longer and give some decent ratios to maximize the snow amounts for PA. You guys are right, dryslotting looks to be a problem for central PA. WWA at least looks certain at this point :rolleyes: , oh man what I would do to see a WSW this winter :arrowhead:

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Here's my first rough crack at this thing. I thought EasternUSWX's map looked pretty good to me although I confined 2-4 zone to the southern south-central. Didn't totally buy into the 0z NAM being very robust and edged eastern-most PA with a 6-8. Typical Laurels situation, a few of the high ground locations may see some of that 6-8 range. All in all took a bit of a compromise between the GFS and NAM and utilized 21z SREF mean. Just read Tombo on the new Euro and it keeps .25-.50 total over all of PA and I believe the .5-.75 near Philly.. so i'm happy with the map at this point. I'd be surprised if CTP went the watch route like PBZ, but I believe everyone in the CTP forecast area gets a solid advisory snowfall.

Potential busts of course is with the precip placement, that hole crops up here and there in the SREF's (as well as the GFS) in various sizes. Since the SREF mean, the NAM and now the Euro keep all of PA in a .25-50, I didn't go crazy with that 2-4 zone. Things could go either way, we could have a very quick transfer that yanks everything east and thus expanding that 2-4 zone or worse. On the other hand we could end up with better QPF and/or a longer lasting Oh Valley low that hangs things together and gives everybody at least that 4-6. Ratios could play a factor too for some folks.

Map:

post-1507-0-84283700-1294640636.png

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Here's my first rough crack at this thing. I thought EasternUSWX's map looked pretty good to me although I confined 2-4 zone to the southern south-central. Didn't totally buy into the 0z NAM being very robust and edged eastern-most PA with a 6-8. Typical Laurels situation, a few of the high ground locations may see some of that 6-8 range. All in all took a bit of a compromise between the GFS and NAM and utilized 21z SREF mean. Just read Tombo on the new Euro and it keeps .25-.50 total over all of PA and I believe the .5-.75 near Philly.. so i'm happy with the map at this point. I'd be surprised if CTP went the watch route like PBZ, but I believe everyone in the CTP forecast area gets a solid advisory snowfall.

Potential busts of course is with the precip placement, that hole crops up here and there in the SREF's (as well as the GFS) in various sizes. Since the SREF mean, the NAM and now the Euro keep all of PA in a .25-50, I didn't go crazy with that 2-4 zone. Things could go either way, we could have a very quick transfer that yanks everything east and thus expanding that 2-4 zone or worse. On the other hand we could end up with better QPF and/or a longer lasting Oh Valley low that hangs things together and gives everybody at least that 4-6. Ratios could play a factor too for some folks.

Map:

post-1507-0-84283700-1294640636.png

looks good.

4-6 on top of my 5" i have now is fine by me.

if i cant get the big one i will take a few small ones that add up..

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CTP never issues things till last second anyways.

You are correct as they can be a bit conservative and cautious. That being said, I'd expect advisories/watches to be issued by noon tomorrow.

Late to the party again I see. I could also see nearly the whole CWA under just an advisory instead of a watch/warning going by some of the models.

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What a fun couple days..2" Friday, another 1" Saturday, now this Tuesday / Wednesday Event. 2-4" / 3-5" whatever, i'll take it.

I'm cautiously looking forward to it as well, with one caveat...last winter, just about every snow overperformed down here. For all 3 of the biggies, the forecasted amounts kept getting ramped up leading into and during the storms. At least here where I live, every single snow this season thus far as underperformed. Years ago, I heard a met say that there was something to that, not sure if he was using technical expertise or just throwing something out there, but I have noticed that to be at least somewhat true over the years.

I guess I have my doubts until I'm actually out there shovelling it...and I hope I get that chance, because I haven't had to even look for the shovel yet this winter.

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By the way, to you mets that post here in our thread...my heartfelt thanks goes out to each one of you. It's great having professional insight, reasoning, etc. to help us novices out with being objective looking at impending threats. The time you spend here is obviously voluntary on your part, and I'm sure that others have and would say the same thing...thank you all very much for your time and analysis!

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By the way, to you mets that post here in our thread...my heartfelt thanks goes out to each one of you. It's great having professional insight, reasoning, etc. to help us novices out with being objective looking at impending threats. The time you spend here is obviously voluntary on your part, and I'm sure that others have and would say the same thing...thank you all very much for your time and analysis!

what he said!

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